Have any of you seen this way funnier than it has any right to be viral video? It pretty much sums up how I feel about Marcus Mariota’s current ADP. Mariota is currently the 11th quarterback drafted with an ADP of 97 in PPR leagues. What? Fantasy community explain!
In 2016, Mariota got off to an admittedly slow start. He only had four touchdowns after the first four weeks. Many of his owners cut bait at that point, myself included. Oh how quickly I regretted that decision. From Week 5 to Week 12, Mariota had multiple touchdowns in every game. He threw just three interceptions during that period and had three or more touchdowns four times. You’ve probably figured it out by now, but during that stretch, Mariota was the single best QB in fantasy football. I completely acknowledge that you can’t ignore the first four weeks, but the last three can be explained away. Week 14 was against Denver. No real explanation needed – they stymied everyone. Week 15 was against Kansas City – a formidable foe – but admittedly Mariota should have performed better. Week 16 was against Jacksonville and also when Mariota broke his leg. This guy was good enough to have an eight-week stretch where he was the best quarterback in fantasy, and he’s being drafted behind or close to the likes of Jameis Winston, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson.
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I won’t get too into why I don’t like Jameis Winston as a prospect, but I understand his numbers were statistically similar to Mariota’s. My counter would be the incredibly favorable schedule the Bucs had last year and how it will be more difficult in 2017. Granted Winston does have added weapons in DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard, but Mariota just got Eric Decker, Corey Davis, and Taywan Taylor. Mariota also has rushing upside, while Winston does not. The Titans also project to be a better offense with a better offensive line (ranked No. 4 according to Pro Football Focus).
Ben Roethlisberger is 35 going on 50. Why does he get a pass for his age, wear and tear, and deplorable home/road splits? Roethlisberger threw 20 touchdowns against five interceptions at home, but nine touchdowns against eight interceptions on the road…in eight games.
Cam Newton is coming off a down year where he took a lot of abuse. His rushing numbers were the worst of his career on a per carry basis. Additionally, the Panthers drafted Christian McCaffrey and Newton himself has spoken about running less. Mariota is more like Cam Newton than 2017 Cam Newton is like Cam Newton.
Derek Carr is truly perplexing. In seven games, Carr threw for either one or zero touchdowns. Almost half the time, you’re not getting QB1 numbers from Carr. And he didn’t have an eight-week stretch where he was the best QB in fantasy. He just had eight individual weeks where he was a top 12 quarterback. How is he the sixth QB off the board on a run-first offense in a tough defensive division?
Finally, we have Russell Wilson. Somehow we’re willing to give him and his last-ranked offensive line a pass for an entire season of underperformance, but Mariota is an afterthought. I just don’t get it. During Weeks 5 through 7, while Mariota’s QB1 run was underway, Wilson threw the same number of touchdowns as I did. Wilson had five games with no touchdown passes and another six games with just one touchdown pass. Wilson had one rushing touchdown all season. He ran for a paltry 259 yards. Yes, he was playing hurt during the middle part of the season, but it’s not like he finished particularly strong. He had two monster games Weeks 14 and 15, but the other four of his final six games contained either one or zero touchdown passes. He was awful last year. We give him a pass though.
That brings us back to the man of the hour: Marcus Mariota. I’ve already mentioned the vast improvements to the offense and the elite offensive line. If you take out those final three games against Denver (best defense in the league), Kansas City (good defense + freezing cold temperatures), and Jacksonville (injured during game), Mariota averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. He did this with Rishard Matthews as his top receiver. I like Matthews. He’s talented. He was part of the reason for Mariota’s rise in Week 5 – after his idiot coach stopped pushing the so clearly “done” Andre Johnson and completely talentless Tajae Sharpe. Once the surrounding conditions improved, so did Mariota. Those surrounding conditions are exponentially better this year. Matthews can return to the second receiver spot, where he is far more comfortable, while red zone extraordinaire and all around underrated receiving talent, Eric Decker, takes over as the number one. The best receiver in this draft, Corey Davis, can learn as the number three and operate out of the slot or play the outside and move Decker into the slot. Taywan Taylor will barely see the field. It has nothing to do with his ability, which he has plenty of, but rather the incredible talent ahead of him.
The writing is on the wall for Mariota to have a monster 2017. In addition to the team improvements, the Titans have the sixth-easiest schedule in the league. While the possible downside of this is more leads for the Titans and more running later in games, I tend to look at the fact that I’d rather have my fantasy players face weaker opponents than stronger ones. Mariota can do plenty of damage in the first three quarters. The Titans have a below-average defense that will allow opponents to stay in games. Mariota will have ample opportunity to light up the fantasy scoreboard.
I have Mariota ranked as my QB4, sandwiched between Andrew Luck (assuming he’s healthy) and Drew Brees. I respect taking Brees ahead of him, but it’s more about the cost-benefit analysis than anything else. No one debates the overall QB1 upside of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, and Drew Brees. But how many other QBs realistically have a shot at a top three finish? Matt Ryan is going in the fifth round. Derek Carr is going in the seventh round. Kirk Cousins is going in the eighth round. I like Mariota more than all of them and you can grab him in the ninth round. Even if you think Ryan is better than Mariota, is he really four rounds better? I truly cannot believe the value on Mariota right now. It very well may change into August, but QB ADP does not typically move nearly as much as other positions. For what he costs, I will gladly reach a round and make sure Mariota is my QB in as many leagues as possible. With Mariota, you can employ the wait on a QB strategy that’s become so prevalent and still end up with an elite option.
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.
