Hitting on a value pick late in the draft can be the difference between finishing in the middle of the pack and winning a league. Instead of using an ambiguous term and calling the guys below sleepers, I’ve opted to highlight late-round targets. For the purpose of this article, a late-round target is defined as a player selected after pick 120. With an ADP north of 120, the following players are being selected on average after round 12 in 10-team DRAFT leagues and after round 10 in 12-team DRAFT leagues.
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Quarterback
Andy Dalton (CIN) – 121.6
Dalton’s 2016 season isn’t impressive at first glance, but there are plenty of indicators that a leap in fantasy production could be in the cards this year. An interception-throwing machine in his first few years in the NFL, Dalton has only thrown 15 in 28 games the last two years, and he’s posted back-to-back seasons with a sub-2% interception percentage, setting a new low at 1.4% last year, per Pro-Football-Reference. One might think the lack of turnovers has been accompanied by dinking and dunking, but that’s hardly been the case. The TCU product has posted his two highest yards gained per pass attempt (Y/A) and adjusted yards gained per pass attempt (AY/A) over the last two years. He was at his best in 2015 with 8.4 Y/A and 8.9 AY/A, but he was still good in 2016 ranking tied for 11th with 7.5 Y/A and tied for 10th with 7.5 AY/A. Dalton also ranked 13th in passing yards per game (262.9) and 15th in Quarterback Rating (91.8). His work wasn’t graded as favorably by QBR (58.3), and he ranked 20th in that category. He did, however, rank 17th in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) Overall quarterback ranking, and he checked in 11th in DYAR (736) and 13th in DVOA (7.6%), per Football Outsiders (FO). A lack of touchdown passes — he threw only 18 — hurt his fantasy scoring total, but he did chip in on the ground with 184 yards rushing and four touchdowns. Dalton has run for at least 120 yards in all six seasons he’s been in the NFL, and he’s rushed for three or more touchdowns in four of six years. The work he does chipping in on the ground shouldn’t be completely overlooked.
Turning attention back to his work through the air, none of it tells the whole story, as it lacks the context of who he was throwing the ball to. A.J. Green played in only 10 games last year, and tight end Tyler Eifert played in just eight games. That means his top two weapons in the passing attack — one of whom is one of the best receivers in the game — missed a total of 10 games last year. That left Dalton in the position of making chicken salad out of — I’ll keep this rated G — chicken droppings last year. Brandon LaFell led the team in targets (106) and touchdown receptions (six) while ranking second in receptions (64) and receiving yards (862). LaFell is by no means a No. 1 receiver, and he’s probably not legitimately a No. 2 receiver, either. Rookie Tyler Boyd was also thrust into an expanded role. Giving credit where it’s due, LaFell and Boyd each earned an “Average” overall grade for their work by PFF, and LaFell did rank 22nd in DYAR (201) and DVOA (10.7%) among qualified receivers, according to FO. Having said that, a healthy Green and Eifert will be major upgrades for Dalton. Boyd could improve now that he has a full season in the NFL under his belt, and the team added weapons in the NFL Draft, too, spending the ninth pick in the first round on burner wide receiver John Ross and the 48th overall pick (16th in the second round) on running back Joe Mixon. For good measure, the club added big — 6-foot-3 and 208 pounds, according to NFL.com — field-stretcher wide out Josh Malone with the 128th pick (22nd in the fourth round). The cupboards go from empty in 2016 to overflowing in 2017. Dalton’s trajectory was already headed in the right direction, and his new weapons push his ceiling up to top-10 fantasy QB with big weekly scoring potential.
Running Back
Jacquizz Rodgers (TB) – 145.0
At the least, Rodgers has a good chance at leading an RBBC for the first three games of the year with Doug Martin serving the remainder of his four-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance last year. A recent report from Dan Graziano at ESPN.com indicates the starting job isn’t guaranteed for Martin when he returns, though, it seems like that’s more of a motivational tactic with the same article praising the way Martin looks in camp. Motivational tactic or not, Rodgers was fairly impressive when called upon last year and might not be a pushover to unseat when Martin returns. Rodgers earned the 11th highest overall running back ranking at PFF, and while his receiving work earned poor marks and Charles Sims will get work as the pass-catching back, Rodgers has performed well as a receiver in previous years. Sticking on the topic of his running, he ranked a respectable 23rd in DYAR (46). The Bucs weren’t shy about using the diminutive back heavily, either. In a three-game stretch in October, Rodgers reached or exceeded 20 touches in each game totaling 75 carries for 324 yards rushing and a touchdown while hauling in seven receptions for 46 yards receiving. During the last two games of the season, he closed with 17 touches (15 carries and two receptions) and 18 touches (17 carries and one reception), respectively, for 157 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.
Tampa Bay added weapons to the offense in the offseason, and the continued maturation and development of Jameis Winston should make them a higher scoring offense this season. That adds to the ceiling of all parties involved in the offense, including Rodgers. Even if he’s only the leader of the RBBC in the first three weeks of the season before settling in for a reserve role, he’ll have a chance to provide value on such a modest draft pick investment. It’s unwise to treat last year’s rankings as gospel when looking ahead at the schedule, but the first three games of the season for the Buccaneers are at Miami, versus the Bears, and at the Vikings. The highest ranked run defense by FO in the group was the Vikings ranking 16th. The Dolphins ranked 22nd while the Bears ranked 28th defending the run, per FO. Assuming no major injuries in camp or the preseason, the Bucs should at least be favorites against the Bears, which will provide a good game script for Rodgers and the running attack. The current line for the opener against the Dolphins is Miami -1 point, according to Pinnacle, and they should be no worse than a small road underdog in Minnesota, though, I’d guess Tampa Bay will be favored. Regardless, the larger point is that Tampa Bay doesn’t project to be blown out by any of their first three opponents, and that opens the door to a balanced game script that will keep Rodgers busy against defenses that are probably not going to be elite defending the run — even if one optimistically expects improvements from all three run defenses. At worst, Rodgers looks like a guy who has a chance to deliver RB2 or flex point outputs the first three games of the season, and if he plays like the guy we saw last year, he could have value after that.
Rex Burkhead (NE) – 189.1
I’m firmly planted on the Mike Gillislee bandwagon, and Burkhead’s inclusion in this piece shouldn’t be viewed as a slight toward the former Bill. Instead, I’m viewing Burkhead as a priority handcuff with the rare potential to be useful if an injury doesn’t strike the projected feature back. I say projected feature back, because both Gillislee and Burkhead are new additions to the Patriots via free agency, and there’s competition for roles in the crowded backfield. It seems like Gillislee is pretty close to a lock to be the goal-line and short-yardage back at the very least, but Gillislee should also get plenty of work as a runner in non-short-yardage situations.
Burkhead’s a capable runner in his own right, however, and could see work while Gillislee is healthy. The former Bengal closed 2016 with a big showing against the Ravens rushing for 119 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries while adding two receptions for 25 yards. He didn’t receive more than 100 rushes, so he wasn’t a qualified runner at FO, but his 41.9% DVOA was tops among unqualified backs and would have been second to only Gillislee’s 45.0% DVOA in 2016. Burkhead’s 163 DYAR were the 12th most among all running backs, too. He’s no slouch as a receiver, either. Burkhead’s versatility creates multiple avenues to playing time, usage, and fantasy points even in a fully healthy backfield. As I’ve stated in other DRAFT geared pieces, grabbing parts of the high-octane Patriots offense is wise. Burkhead is cheap, and if Gillislee were to get hurt or fall out of favor in the backfield, the former’s upside far exceeds a pick barely inside the top 200.
Wide Receiver
Josh Doctson (WAS) – 150.8
Doctson was the third receiver off the board in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft. He was selected with the 22nd pick in the first round, but he played only 31 snaps in his rookie season dealing with mysterious pain in his Achilles’ tendons. Doctson said, “the injury is pretty much nonexistent now,” in the linked article by Nora Princiotti of The Washington Times. Now healthy, the second-year receiver reportedly “stole the show” in day one of training camp, per JP Finlay of CSN Mid Atlantic. Doctson posted monster numbers in his final two seasons at TCU, and he turned heads with some of the top numbers at NFL Draft Combine in a number of categories. Doctson graded out as the best receiver in college football in his last year at TCU, according to PFF. Terrelle Pryor was brought in to help fill the void created by DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon taking their talents elsewhere in free agency, but he’s not going to fill that void by himself. D-Jax and Garcon amassed 135 receptions, 216 targets, 2,046 yards receiving, and seven touchdowns last year. Kirk Cousins has an embarrassment of riches to work with in the passing game, but Doctson has the talent, size, and measurables to carve out a fantasy-friendly role and make his preseason ADP look foolishly low in retrospect at season’s end.
Chris Hogan (NE) – 192.0
I could have easily gone with Malcolm Mitchell, but I didn’t due to Hogan’s big-play prowess. Eliot Crist of PFF ranked the league’s best receivers for each type of route back in February, and Hogan led the way as the best at go routes (min. of 10 targeted routes). NextGen Stats also painted a rosy picture of work. Matt Harmon of NFL.com tweeted in January that Hogan’s 3.6 yards of separation on his targets led the NFL among receivers with a minimum of 30-plus targets out wide. Hogan’s tailor made for DRAFT’s best-ball format. He’ll be a volatile ancillary piece in the offense, but his ability to blow the top off of defenses should assure him some plays designed to utilize that skill and some big weeks as a result of his home-run ability.
Paul Richardson (SEA) – 212.7
Richardson’s ADP means he’s typically going undrafted in 10-team DRAFT Leagues and requires basically a last-round pick in 12-team leagues. That seems crazy to me after the 2014 NFL Draft’s 45th selection started translating his tools to production down the stretch last year. Richardson seized an opportunity to shine when Tyler Lockett‘s season was cut short due to a broken tibia and fibula in his right leg. During the last two games of the regular season, Richardson hauled in eight passes for 82 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets, but he balled out even more in the postseason. In two playoff games, he hauled in seven of nine targets for 131 yards receiving and a score. One of those playoff grabs was this one-handed gem against the Lions in the Wild Card round. That was merely an appetizer for this insane catch. Highlights are a bad way to judge a player, but these are impressive nonetheless, and Richardson offers more than a few highlights to get hyped up about this year. In his limited but still qualifying work, he graded out as the 44th best wide receiver overall at PFF, and his 56 DYAR were the 13th most among receivers who were targeted with between 10 and 49 passes, per FO. He averaged a healthy 13.71 yards per reception in the regular season before that number jumped to 18.71 yards per reception in the postseason.
The 25-year-old’s ability to make big plays should come as little surprise since he lit up stopwatches at the 2014 NFL Draft Combine with a blazing 4.40 40-yard dash time. The three receivers who bested him in the 40-yard dash that year — Brandin Cooks, John Brown, and Donte Moncrief — have already made their marks to some degree in fantasy leagues. Speed isn’t a guarantee for success, but it doesn’t hurt. It also helps when that speed has been shown to produce on the field. In his final season as a junior at Colorado, Richardson hauled in 83 passes for 1,343 yards receiving, 10 touchdowns, and 16.2 yards per reception. Lockett hasn’t yet cleared his physical and is currently on the PUP list, but head coach Pete Carroll expects Lockett’s stay on the PUP list to be a short one, per Gregg Bell of The News Tribune. There’s only so much football to go around, and a pre-injury form Lockett could pose a threat to Richardson’s target share in Seattle’s offense. Of course, you don’t have to look far to see a return to pre-injury form shouldn’t always be expected right away, just ask Thomas Rawls. The injuries aren’t the same, but it does provide some reason for pause. More importantly, Lockett didn’t blow the doors off the place when he was healthy last year, so there could be some wiggle room for Richardson to press him for targets even if Lockett shows no rust. By numerous accounts, the Seahawks want to get back to pounding the ball on the ground. I’d like to wake up with a million dollars in my bank account. We don’t always get what we want, and after Seattle’s struggles run blocking as a unit last year, I’m skeptical of them fully turning the clock back to their Beast Mode days. Richardson’s combination of big-play ability, flashing of skills in the postseason last year, and attachment to an elite quarterback who can get the ball downfield — Russell Wilson ranked tied for sixth in Y/A and ninth in AY/A last season — make him a nifty dart throw at the end of drafts.
Tight End
Austin Hooper (ATL) – 140.0
Hooper didn’t do much as a rookie as part of Atlanta’s juggernaut offense, but he did tease his potential catching 19 passes on 27 targets for 271 yards (14.3 yards per reception) and three touchdowns. He earned the 20th highest overall grade at tight end at PFF, and even in his limited usage made waves ranking 11th in DYAR (107). More remarkably, he ranked second only to Rob Gronkowski in DVOA (47.1%). Jacob Tamme is no longer in the fold, and he tallied 22 receptions, 31 targets, 210 yards receiving, and three touchdown grabs. Hooper could absorb all of that production while doing even more now that he has a season in the NFL under his belt. Hooper also did his part to help build better chemistry with quarterback Matt Ryan by spending some time working with him in Southern California this offseason, according to a report from Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. Hooper has a chance to step up and claim a bigger piece of the pie in the passing attack behind Julio Jones. I’m not going to suggest Hooper is Tony Gonzalez — he’s not — but take a look back at Gonzalez’s years catching passes from Matty Ice for a reminder of how productive a tight end can be working with Ryan. Gonzalez did pretty well for himself even after Jones joined the mix in 2011. Hooper’s an attractive TE2 target.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
