DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 9
You probably aren’t a DraftKings millionaire after Week 8 unless you stacked just about everyone in the epic Seahawks-Texans game, but the value plays weren’t too bad last week. Andy Dalton unsurprisingly put up a nice line against the Colts while I’m a bit depressed that Alvin Kamara has officially risen above the “value play” range now.
The pass catchers were once again a disappointment though, and everybody is still waiting for Joe Mixon to bust out. At this point, we may be waiting until next season. Let’s take a look at what Week 9 has to offer.
Cam Newton (CAR): $6,300 v. ATL
There were only three quarterbacks on the slate last week averaging more than 40 passing attempts a game. They were Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, and Tom Brady. If you took the cheapest one, then you ended up with Russell Wilson, who turned out to be a pretty good pick.
Let’s do that again as this week. Wilson and Newton are the only two who fit that 40+ passing attempts per game criteria. Newton is the cheaper one at $6,300 and gets the Falcons who have allowed two passing touchdowns in three straight games to Tom Brady, ‘Downtown’ Josh McCown, and even Jay Cutler.
Newton remembered how to throw a football as the calendar turned to October this year with back-to-back big games against the Patriots and the Lions so maybe all he needs is the calendar to turn again to November. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills doesn’t concern me as Devin Funchess is more than capable of filling in as the WR1. If anything, it will make Newton a more attractive option as he will be even lower owned than he was already set to be.
Javorius Allen (BAL): $4,300 @ TEN
It was the Alex Collins show on Thursday Night against the Dolphins, and Collins likely flew off your waiver wire if he was still available in your league. Collins looked great against the Dolphins and has been very effective on the ground all season, but that still has only translated into one game of more than 8.5 points. This was Collins’ fourth straight game getting double-digit carries, but in the last three games in which the Ravens were an underdog, Collins has only 10.33 touches per game.
Allen, on the other hand, is averaging 15.67 touches in those aforementioned games and has at least double-digits in each of them. The Ravens are an underdog in Tennessee this week.
Carlos Hyde (SF): $5,200 v. ARI
Carlos Hyde is at his lowest price since going off for 24.4 points in Week 3 vs. the Rams. The 49ers are going to get a win eventually, and getting the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals at home may present the best opportunity.
If the 49ers can grab control of the game early, then Hyde will be set-up for a very productive game. Also very appealing is that Hyde has a combined 18 targets over the last two games since C.J. Beathard took over at quarterback.
Hyde had 24.4 points in Week 3 which was followed by a mediocre game and then a bad game. Hyde had 24.5 points in Week 6 which was followed by a mediocre game and then a bad game. I’m predicting 24.6 points for Hyde in Week 9.
Devin Funchess (CAR): $5,400 v. ATL
Pairing Devin Funchess as the new WR1 for the Panthers with Cam Newton is an auto play. Funchess hasn’t been priced below $5,500 since Week 4 when he went for 26 against the Patriots. He’s the only remaining heavily targeted pass catcher in the Panthers’ offense besides Christian McCaffrey.
T.Y. Hilton (IND): $4,900 v. HOU
I know better than to ever listen to anything Colts head coach Chuck Pagano says, but here I am suggesting T.Y. Hilton as a value play. Pagano stated that the Colts “have to figure out” how to get T.Y. Hilton the ball more which is just the most Chuck Pagano thing to finally realize halfway through the season. Hilton’s only two good games this season have come at home, and while the Colts are playing on the road again in Houston, at least it’s in an indoor environment at NRG Stadium.
As heavy underdogs, Jacoby Brissett will likely be chucking, and the Texans haven’t been lockdown against WRs as evidenced by Week 8 in Seattle. This is Hilton’s lowest price tag since his Week 3 explosion at $5,200 against the Browns.
The Redskins have finally decided to take Billy Joel’s advice and “not start the Pryor” (sorry, that was horrible). This all potentially makes Vernon Davis one of the top targets against a Seahawks’ defense that hasn’t been lockdown against tight ends. Davis has shown the ability to pop off when Jordan Reed is out, so he’s a strong play at $4,100.
Saints D/ST (NOR): $3,400 v. TB
I like ceilings when it comes to selecting defenses, and the Saints have one of the highest. It feels strange taking the Saints as a D/ST rather than stacking against them, but they have a legit defense this season with playmaking ability.
On the other side, Jameis Winston is as turnover-prone as it gets outside of whoever is playing for the Browns. For under $3,500, I’ll take my chances on a Saints’ defense at home with a projected team total of 29 points.
That’s going to do it. Best of luck in Week 9.