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FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 11

FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 11

Inherent in daily fantasy sports is the need for flexibility. The strategy that worked last week might not be the best way to approach this week. Sometimes we have to take value where it’s given, instead of at the position we want it. For example, I like value quarterbacks. It’s the position with the most guaranteed touches by a mile, which gives it an inherent floor much higher than running back or wide receiver. But this week, it’s tough to find much there. However, the running back and wide receiver positions have some immense values that can compensate. You can still go cheap at quarterback, but this is the rare week that I’m going to suggest you pay up. (Statistics via ProFootball Reference unless otherwise noted)

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Quarterback

Eli Manning (NYG): $6,500 vs. KC
You know it’s a tough week for value at quarterback when I’m playing Russian roulette with an Eli Manning bullet again after surviving last week. He kept it exciting against the 49ers, needing a garbage time touchdown to pay off. This week, he’s the only quarterback under $7,000 that I think is playable. Kansas City’s defense isn’t close to as bad as San Francisco’s, but they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They’re giving up the fourth-most passing yards per game. They’re aggressive on defense, but give up big plays. The Chiefs’ defense has held opposing quarterbacks to the lowest completion percentage in the league, but allowed the highest yards per attempt. I’d feel a lot better about that if Odell Beckham was playing in this game, but I have to admit that Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram are doing an excellent job of their own. Per our projections, Eli Manning comes in as the second-most undervalued quarterback. He’s a cheap, low-ceiling option.

Alex Smith (KC): $7,900 @ NYG
Sometimes value is a relative thing. Alex Smith is way outside the salary-range that I normally recommend, but this week, only a couple of cheaper quarterbacks are even viable. Quarterback pricing is weird all around. Why would you pay $7,500 for Blake Bortles, even against the Browns, when Alex Smith against a defense giving up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks is only $400 more? The Giants’ defense is sad. They’ve allowed 268 passing yards per game (second-most) and the fourth-best passer rating (102.8). Alex Smith has had a great year; his worst fantasy performance was 13 points against the Broncos’ very tough defense. He’ll need more than that to be worth it at this salary, but as I mentioned, this defense is nothing like the Broncos. Despite his high salary, Alex Smith is our tool’s fourth-most undervalued quarterback.

Running Back

Alex Collins (BAL): $5,500 @ GB
This Ravens at Packers game should be a grinding, low-scoring affair fought and won in the trenches. It makes both teams’ running backs worth a look. Neither team has a good quarterback or a prolific passing attack. Despite not getting enough touches, Alex Collins might be the Ravens’ best offensive player. Some combination of the Ravens’ general ineptness on offense and letting Joe Flacco throw too often has resulted in Collins not seeing more than 18 carries in a game, even though he’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Flacco, for the record, is averaging only 5.3 yards per passing attempt. The good news is that when Alex Collins is in the game, he gets the ball, touching it on nearly 60% of his snaps. The Packers have given up the tenth-most fantasy points to running backs, making for a decent matchup. The real concern is the uncertainty of the Ravens’ usage, particularly with the potential return of both Terrance West and Danny Woodhead. The Ravens have said that Collins remains the lead back and I’m inclined to believe them. West struggled before the injury and Woodhead is more likely to eat into Javorius Allen‘s role in the passing game than Collins’ early-down work.

Jamaal Williams (GB): $5,600 vs. BAL
If the Ravens have a feast at running back, then there’s a famine in Green Bay. Aaron Jones has already been ruled out and Ty Montgomery looks unlikely to play. That would leave Jamaal Williams locked into a big role in this trench war against the Ravens’ defense, which has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to running backs. In relief of Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams carried the ball 20 times in 35 snaps last game. He may not get much work in the passing game, but with the Ravens’ offense being so underwhelming, the Packers won’t be forced to throw to keep up. They may want to limit how much they throw, given the struggles of Brett Hundley. Jamaal Williams is not a particularly exciting athlete, but he’ll get the carries.

Kenyan Drake (MIA): $5,600 vs. TB
Kenyan Drake is an extremely exciting athlete, but will he get the carries? The Dolphins organization has gone belly-up. In the two games since the highly-questionable Jay Ajayi trade, Kenyan Drake has carried the ball 16 times for 151 yards – an impressive 9.3 yards per carry. Damien Williams has carried the ball 16 times for 33 yards (2.06 yards per carry). To most people, that’s a pretty obvious choice. But the Dolphins have said they will continue splitting carries. Yes, it’s a small sample size and Drake’s average will come down some and William’s average will come up some, but it’s unlikely Williams would overtake Drake. Drake has shown why the Dolphins drafted him in the third round, making electric plays and giving a spark to a seemingly-hopeless offense. Still, it’s likely that Williams will eat into Drake’s workload, but he’s made the most of every touch and can put up big fantasy scores regardless.

Wide Receiver

Bruce Ellington (HOU): $4,600 vs. ARI
FanDuel is giving away Bruce Ellington for less than most kickers! He’s gotten eight targets in two straight games. Unfortunately, those targets are coming from Tom Savage, but it’s still a high volume for a guy barely above the minimum salary. Will Fuller is doubtful after a nasty hit last game, leaving Ellington to work opposite DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals have, for some reason, confirmed that Patrick Peterson will shadow Hopkins. That’s great news for Bruce, who could see a few extra targets thrown his way. Overall, the Arizona defense has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, so Ellington should have ample opportunity to rack up points. Assuming Savage can get him the ball, that is. Just kidding. Kind of.

Jamison Crowder (WAS): $5,400 @ NO
I never would have anticipated fearing the Saints’ defense, but there it is. I’m afraid. After being the equivalent of a revolving door to the end zone last season, the Saints are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. But there is good news for Jamison Crowder. First, he’s extremely undervalued at that salary, regardless of the matchup. Second, Saints safety/slot corner Kenny Vaccaro was downgraded to “did not practice” on Thursday, casting doubt on his availability. If he can’t play, it’s a downgrade to the overall defense losing a solid safety and the Saints will likely have to bring in PJ Williams to play slot corner – perfect for Crowder. Third, Jordan Reed is questionable with a leaning towards doubtful (in my opinion) and would certainly be limited if he played, opening up work for Crowder over the middle. His absence is likely a big part of why Crowder was targeted 13 and 11 times in the last two games, respectively. Anything close to that volume at Crowder’s salary is unheard of.

Tight End

Jason Witten (DAL): $5,400 vs. PHI
One day, Jason Witten will retire and it will feel so weird not seeing his name in player pools. But so far he’s continued rolling on in 2017, averaging the eighth-most targets among tight ends. Unlike previous years, however, his usage has been inconsistent. He’s seen as many as 13 balls and as few as one ball thrown his way this season. Ezekiel Elliott has finally accepted his suspension and Dallas has to make adjustments. In the first game without Elliott, Witten received seven targets, indicating he might play a larger role in Zeke’s absence. The Eagles, for their part, have struggled to defend the tight end position this season, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points. Witten is available at a bargain-basement salary and offers a solid floor, albeit with a low ceiling.

Kicker

Josh Lambo (JAC): $4,600 @ CLE
I think this will be a surprisingly interesting game. I don’t know what the Browns will be able to do against the Jaguars’ defense, but I do think the Jags will score against the Browns. The Browns have allowed the third-most points per game, but the method of scoring for the Jaguars remains to be seen. Jacksonville’s passing offense against Cleveland’s defense is an experiment in what happens when a stoppable force collides with a movable object. Blake Bortles could (should) put up a decent game against this unit, but he’s been known to disappoint. Leonard Fournette might not find a lot of room to run against a shockingly-effective run defense that has allowed the lowest yards per carry in the NFL. But if all else fails, the Jaguars will score points on defense.

No matter which of these scenarios play out, Josh Lambo scores fantasy points. The defense doesn’t even need to get a touchdown. As long as they get it into field goal range, I guarantee Bortles can overthrow receivers three straight times and get Lambo a field goal attempt. He might even take a sack just so Lambo can get an extra fantasy point, who knows. Lambo hasn’t missed a field goal this year (one missed extra point).

D/ST

Houston D/ST: $4,600 vs. ARI
A man named Blaine Gabbert is expected to start at quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals this week, following Drew Stanton‘s injury. There’s only one problem. Blaine Gabbert is the worst quarterback of his era. No, seriously. Check out his career stats (2011-2017) compared to other quarterbacks over the same span (>1200 attempts):

Stat Value Rank
Passer Rating 71.5 Worst
Completion % 55.95 Worst
Yards per Game 171 Worst
TD:INT 38:37 Worst
Adjusted Net Y/A 4.28 Worst
INT % 3.02 Fourth-Worst

 

I wasn’t exaggerating. It’s that bad. I admit, a lot of defenses have good matchups and are temptingly-priced this week, but Houston D/ST is affordable, and I can’t imagine passing up the chance to play a defense against Gabbert.

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Steve Repsold is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Steve, follow him @SteveRepsold.

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