Don’t ya just love Thanksgiving? Family, feasting, and football (not necessarily in order of preference, if you know what I mean). Reminds me of growing up, being the youngest among my brother and two cousins at our get-togethers, and enduring their relentless ribbing about everything from how small I was to my pasty skin (the whitest white ever known to humankind). Nah, no bitterness here.
Still, there’s nothing like watching a Detroit Lions game amidst the wafting aroma of baking turkey, and then seeing Dallas wear blue jerseys at home for the only time all year. And these days we have a third game to watch. This year’s Giants-Redskins clash may not be as enticing as some years past, but three games is always better than two!
Let’s get to those (mostly) under-the-radar player picks:
SLEEPERS are defined as players normally considered Tier 3 or below who I predict will over-achieve this week. SNOOZERS are Tier 1 or 2 players who I expect to disappoint their owners.
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SLEEPERS
Andy Dalton (QB – CIN vs. CLE)
Earlier this season, Dalton tossed four TD passes without an interception against the Browns. In the last five meetings, he has 13 TDs without a pick. There simply isn’t any reason that trend figures to get bucked this time around.
Alfred Morris (RB – DAL vs. LAC)
Morris was the lone effective player on offense for the Cowboys in their loss to Philadelphia last week, and with QB Dak Prescott struggling since Ezekiel Elliott‘s lineup departure, Morris makes a nice play on touches alone against the league’s second-worst defense against running backs.
J.D. McKissic (RB – SEA @ SF)
Yes, trying to figure out Seattle’s running game is a little like a color-blind person solving a Rubik’s Cube (extremely dated reference). But with this week’s opponent, the 49ers, sporting the worst run defense in all of football (including college and Pop Warner, I suspect), I want the guy who not only will get some carries but also be the most likely to haul in some swing passes as well.
Jeremy Maclin (WR – BAL vs. HOU)
The stats to back up this assertion are admittedly thin, but Maclin has scored in two of the three home games he’s played in this year, and in seven of the last 10 when at home against teams with records under .500, going back to his time with Kansas City. In other words, he’s a No. 1-caliber guy at home against struggling teams.
Mohamed Sanu (WR – ATL vs. TB)
Sanu has become an increasingly common red zone target and has scored in three of his last four games. That, combined with Tampa Bay’s league-worst passing defense, adds up to a solid day for the veteran No. 2 wideout.
Vernon Davis (TE – WAS vs. NYG)
But then you saw this one coming, right? OK, guilty as charged. And I totally knew that elite TE Travis Kelce would be held out of the end zone last week by the terrible Giants defense – it made too much sense in a nonsense league – but nevertheless, we’re talking 10 TDs allowed to tight ends. With teammate Jordan Reed still sidelined, you can feel good about Davis.
SNOOZERS
Matthew Stafford (QB – DET vs. MIN)
Prognosticating against the Lions on Thanksgiving might be considered unwise, but Minnesota’s defense is playing too well – holding the NFL’s top-scoring LA Rams to a single TD last week – and in the last three meetings, Stafford has averaged less than 220 yards passing and one touchdown, including a 209-yard, no-score effort earlier this season.
Jordan Howard (RB – CHI @ PHI)
If you’re the Eagles and you have the league’s top-rated run defense, and the opposing quarterback is a rookie making only his seventh NFL start, wouldn’t you put, like, 10 guys in the box and challenge the kid? No way the Eagles allow Howard to get anything going on the ground. Bench him if you have a reasonable option (i.e. your backup has a carotid pulse).
Lamar Miller (RB – HOU @ BAL)
I know… this year’s Ravens defense is not your father’s Ravens defense. They actually rank in the lower third of the league in yards allowed to backs. But host Baltimore has two shutouts in its last three starts, is playing to be relevant in the wild-card chase, and is on national TV, going against an offense absolutely besieged by injuries. It’s not going to be Miller Time.
Michael Crabtree (WR – OAK vs. DEN)
After a strong first six weeks to the season, Crabtree has endured three straight games without scoring and is pitted against the Aqib Talib-led Denver secondary, which is second in the league in fewest yards allowed to receivers.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI vs. JAC)
This pick has nothing to do with the ultra-talented, ultra-reliable veteran and everything to do with Jacksonville’s remarkable top-ranked pass defense. You probably have to start Fitz, but you don’t have to like it.
Jason Witten (TE – DAL vs. LAC)
Picking Witten as a snoozer, these days, is like saying Bruno Mars can carry a tune. Duh! But Witten is still considered by many as a higher tier guy, despite not scoring since Week 4 and having four games this season – count ’em, four! – in which he finished with one catch.
Week 11 Results
Calls So Good That I Need My Own End-Zone Celebration
(Sleepers) Tevin Coleman, Orleans Darkwa. (Snoozers) Marcus Mariota, Todd Gurley, AJ Green, Charles Clay.
Calls That Missed As If I Was Just A Monkey With Darts
(Sleepers) Jay Cutler, Cole Beasley, Marqise Lee, Jermaine Gresham (two TE scores for Arizona, but to the wrong TE). (Snoozers) Dion Lewis, Doug Baldwin.
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Bob Cunningham is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Bob, check out his archive or follow him @bobcunnin.
