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2018’s All-Boring Fantasy Baseball Team

2018’s All-Boring Fantasy Baseball Team

As Ricky Bobby’s dad once said, “If you ain’t first, you’re last.” Fantasy drafters often take this advice to heart, leaving value on the table to chase upside at every turn. Everybody knows what to expect from Adam Jones, so nobody will sigh, say “Good pick!” or smack their fist on the table after you take him. They’ll probably just yawn.

It pays to occasionally accept that boredom.

Let’s be clear: Drafting the majority of this All-Boring Team is a surefire way to finish in sixth place. It’s not last, but it isn’t first either. Like any investor, a fantasy manager must establish a balanced portfolio with safe and high-reward assets. Go ahead and take Yoan Moncada, but then back up that bust possibility with the steady Cesar Hernandez as a middle infielder or reserve.

What makes a player boring? Although ultimately in the eye of the beholder, age is definitely a leading factor. Gamers want the next big thing over the 32-year-old who consistently stays healthy and hits .260 with 25 homers. With one exception, the highlighted hitters all have durability on their side. They don’t brandish top-shelf power or speed, but they’re steady contributors in the right environments to produce runs in bunches. The unexciting pitchers are on the wrong side of 30 with strong track records of run prevention despite usable, but non-elite strikeout rates. Since risk comes with the territory, it makes sense to take more pitching gambles while securing some dull, valuable hitters.

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Catcher

Yadier Molina (STL)
Molina is a career .284 hitter who has not batted below .270 since 2010. That doesn’t seem like much, but it’s fairly significant from a catcher. So is the steady playing time. Only Buster Posey has logged more plate appearances at the position over the last three seasons, which puts Molina fifth in RBIs (201) and eighth in runs (150). That hefty workload will eventually wear down the 35-year-old, and he’s not going to pop 18 home runs again after tallying 19 in the previous three years combined. Yet the stable average and counting-number floor make him a palatable starter who is even more intriguing in two-catcher formats.

Honorable Mentions: Salvador Perez, Brian McCann

First Base

Carlos Santana (PHI)
Santana went at a bizarrely low No. 164 ADP in February NFBC drafts. While his elite batting eye doesn’t directly benefit five-by-five players, it did help him score 89 and 90 runs over the last two seasons. He hit .259 each time with the lowest strikeout percentages (14.4 and 14.1) of his career. The 31-year-old now moves to Citizens Bank Park, which rated as the best place for righties to hit homers in FantasyPros’s 2017 Park Factors. Don’t punish an improved player for past inconsistencies and average deficiencies. Depending on his spot in the lineup, he should either drive in or score 90-100 runs while hitting in the .255-.265 range with 25-30 long balls. I’ll gladly take that after Round 10 from my corner infielder. Wouldn’t the same people grabbing Greg Bird 28 spots earlier be giddy to get those results from the high-risk breakout candidate?

Honorable Mentions: Eric Hosmer, Ryan Zimmerman, Kendrys Morales 

Second Base

Cesar Hernandez (PHI)
Assuming Santana bats third ahead of Rhys Hoskins – as projected by Rosters Resource – he’ll have plenty of opportunities to drive in Hernandez. Observers gushing over Scott Kingery are forgetting about a 27-year-old who has hit .294 with a 10.6 walk percentage in consecutive seasons. Those skills should keep him entrenched in an improved lineup’s leadoff spot, where he scored 85 runs in just 128 games last year. He has never reached 10 home runs or 20 stolen bases, but even repeating last year’s nine long balls and 15 steals would make him an underrated middle-infield option for drafters needing to balance out other average liabilities.

Honorable Mentions: Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Josh Harrison

Third Base

Kyle Seager (SEA)
Third base is full of decent mid-tier options, but Seager already has tenure on the All-Boring squad. Another player whose durability is overlooked, the Mariner has logged at least 650 plate appearances in each of the last six seasons. Over the last four years, he has hit at least 25 homers while averaging 89 RBIs and 79 runs. A 51.6 fly-ball rate led to a career-low .246 batting average, but the career .263 hitter should gain back a few points with the proper corrections. He’s also undervalued (138 ADP) in NFBC drafts.

Honorable Mentions: Matt Carpenter, Evan Longoria, Eugenio Suarez

Shortstop

Zack Cozart (LAA)
Let’s do a blind player study. Pretend you didn’t just read a player’s name in bold for optimal surprise.

Player A: 109 GP, 481 PA, .315/.391/.550, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 82 R, 2 SB, .394 wOBA, 5.2 fWAR
Player B: 122 GP, 507 PA, .297/.385/.548, 24 HR, 63 RBI, 80 R, 3 SB, .392 wOBA, 5.0 fWAR

You’ll never guess the name behind Player B’s stellar stat line. OK, fine, you already know it’s Cozart. Player A is Carlos Correa, who might be going closer to No. 3 than 13 had he played a full season. In the haste of writing off a late bloomer’s career outlier, nobody is properly appreciating just how great Cozart was in 2017. Correa was the only shortstop to edge him out in wOBA, and the 32-year-old spiked his walk (12.2) and fly-ball (42.3) percentages notably above career norms. A spotty health record and move from Great American Ball Park to Angels Stadium has justifiably abated his stock, but he’s getting lost in the shuffle behind younger, speedier shortstops from the same tier.  Not paying for the career year is Fantasy 101, but you don’t have to at his 220 ADP.

Honorable Mentions: Xander Bogaerts, Andrelton Simmons, Brandon Crawford 

Outfielders

Adam Jones (BAL)
Let’s go ahead and make Jones the boring captain. From 2011 to 2017, the Orioles outfielder has crushed at least 25 homers in each season. He has never batted higher than .287 but also has never veered below .265. Despite his minuscule 4.5 walk percentage, his abilities translate well to five-by-five fantasy leagues, particularly ones with five outfield slots. Jones doesn’t run or offer massive upside in any category, so most drafters will eschew him for high-reward gambles. There’s no shame in taking the steady production around his No. 144 NFBC ADP, and he may fall even further. I scooped him up at No. 175 in my first draft.

Honorable Mentions: Shin-Soo Choo, Kole Calhoun

Jay Bruce (NYM)
After quietly crushing a career-high 36 home runs last year, Bruce now has five 30-homer, 95-RBI campaigns on his ledger. Yet he’s not as reliable as the typical All-Boring veteran. The outfielder is not consistent on a week-to-week basis, and he forgot how to hit in 2014 and 2015. He’s also, however, fairly bankable from a health and power perspective, and everyone willing to overlook those down years can comfortably forecast a .250 average. Rougned Odor (101) and Adam Duvall (171) join Bruce (161) as the only players with an ADP above 100 following consecutive 30-homer campaigns, so don’t exaggerate the ease of finding cheap, dependable power.

Honorable Mentions: Adam Duvall, Corey Dickerson

Brett Gardner (NYY)
The Yankees’ outfield is crowded, but a healthy and productive Gardner won’t lose meaningful playing time. Owning a career .347 on-base percentage with 15.7 fWAR over the last five seasons, he’s too valuable to sit. While he won’t sustain last year’s career-high 21 homers, the 96 runs is repeatable if he leads off a stacked lineup again. Although no longer an elite speedster, he has swiped 104 bags from 2013 to 2017 at a 79.4 percent success rate. The 34-year-old is at more risk than any other listed hitter of bottoming out in 2018, but he’s more likely to chase another 15-20 season with triple-digit run potential.

Honorable Mentions: Odubel Herrera, Dexter Fowler

Starting Pitchers

Johnny Cueto (SF)
Picking pitchers is tougher, as I’m far less inclined to take unexciting arms with low strikeout rates. Having routinely out-performed his peripherals with a 3.33 career ERA and 3.77 FIP, Cueto typified the boring workhorse ace for years. Although never a fan during his peak years, I warmed up to him because of AT&T Park, only to see him unravel last year. After hurling over 210 frames in four consecutive years, he accrued just 147.1 frames due to blisters that bothered him throughout 2017. Those innings weren’t quality ones either. He posted a 4.52 ERA with a career-worst 1.45 WHIP. He also recorded his worst ground-ball (39.4 %) and walk (8.2 %) rates since 2008, but a No. 152 ADP punishes him severely for these struggles. If he’s healthy, drafters could potentially steal a rotation anchor as their third starter.

Honorable Mentions: Dallas Keuchel, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester

J.A. Happ (TOR)
Happ doesn’t get much attention for a guy who has authored a 3.43 ERA over the last three seasons. He was even nice enough to pair last year’s 3.53 ERA with 142 strikeouts in 145.1 innings. Among starters with at least 100 innings pitched, just four (Dallas Keuchel, Brad Peacock, Max Scherzer, and Jordan Montgomery) induced a lower hard-hit rate. Drafters in shallow mixed leagues will understandably prefer to swing for high-upside arms and stream starters of Happ’s skill level. In deeper formats, he will offer ERA assistance with a K/9 around his 8.05 career clip.

Honorable Mentions: Drew Pomeranz, Jordan Montgomery, Tanner Roark

Relievers

Mark Melancon (SF)
I admittedly had second thoughts about placing Melancon here. Per an Associated Press report, via the Pittsburgh-Tribune Review, the closer recently disclosed that the muscle in his throwing arm “was actually dying off” last year.

“It had turned gray. When they went in, they literally saw it. The muscle was dying from being restricted,” Melancon said. “The doctor said he hadn’t seen that too much. He said he had seen it, but not there, and not often. Very rare. It was definitely a surprise. I know he was shocked.”

Squeamish readers should not click on this post-surgery photo he posted in September. With all this in mind, it’s important to monitor his spring status. If he’s throwing well, there’s major discount potential from a closer who registered a 1.80 ERA from 2013 to 2016. A healthy Melancon will get the first chance at saves with scarce competition to threaten that role. Like Cueto, the fellow Giants righty is no longer priced as a top-flight option, making this the year to pounce.

Honorable Mentions: Blake Treinen, Luke Gregerson, Fernando Rodney

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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