5 High-Floor Wide Receivers (2018 Fantasy Football)

At the mercy of their quarterbacks, few wide receivers are fortunate enough to consistently gather a heavy workload every year. While drafters will also want a mix of big-play options, they should still seek some high-floor producers beyond the opening rounds. When it comes to chasing steady results, targets and catches are the name of the game. Long touchdowns are difficult to replicate, but nobody can vanish entirely when the passer looks his way multiple times per contest. At least not when he’s a precise route runner with steady hands.

These five wideouts combine opportunities with efficiency — a fruitful combination for fantasy investors. Although this article examines high-floor choices from an annual perspective, more volume also tends to procure a stabler weekly range of outcomes.

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Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
I wouldn’t have included Fitzgerald if he were priced properly, but the victim of ageism has a shockingly low No. 43 consensus ADP. It only climbs to 35 in PPR even though he has finished each of the last three seasons with 107-109 receptions. Only Antonio Brown (345) has compiled more catches than his 325 during that time frame.

In 2016, frequent volume only yielded a WR17 (WR11 in PPR) finish because of his career-worst 9.6 yards per catch. His previous career low? 11.1. Drafters are either expecting similar inefficiency or a severe workload decline, because he’s the 16th wideout off the board in standard and PPR drafts. The latter scenario seems unlikely. He hasn’t missed a game since 2014, and the Cardinals are essentially a two-man show starring Fitzgerald and a returning David Johnson.

After playing most of 2017 with Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford and/or Josh Rosen should represent a quarterback upgrade. The future Hall of Famer should especially remain a reception dynamo with Bradford, who has a 68.6 completion percentage since the start of 2015. Drafters will often abandon a veteran a year too early to avoid witnessing the decay firsthand, but such fear has made Fitzgerald an exceptional value for years. Like David Ortiz in MLB drafts, I’m going to keep accepting the discount until the legend retires.

Michael Crabtree (BAL)
Crabtree bottomed out to a career-low 44.1 yards per game last season while registering his fewest catches (58) and targets (101) in a full year –excluding 2013’s five games — since 2010. If that’s his floor, drafters should be delighted to grab him at a WR27 ADP. He still finished WR28 (30 in PPR) in 14 contests, including Week 12’s early ejection.

The 30-year-old is certainly not a high-floor option on a week-to-week basis. He compiled seven yards in Week 3 and went catchless while most leagues decided their championship in Week 16. Yet he also recorded five or more catches in eight games. More important to his bottom line, he found paydirt eight times for the Raiders.

Crabtree is not only ninth in targets (392) and 12th in receptions (232) over the past three seasons, but fifth in touchdowns (25). He joins Brown as the only pass catcher with at least eight receiving touchdowns in each of the past three years.

 
This is all before making the most important case for a high 2018 floor. He went to the Ravens, and Joe Flacco has nobody else. Javorius Allen is their returning leader in targets (60) and receiving yards (250). More than half of last year’s targets are up for grabs, and Crabtree should lead the charge with triple-digit looks from Flacco. He’ll pay off his understated price by sustaining his red-zone utility.

Golden Tate (DET)
Here’s yet another impressive stat where the receiver of honor stands alongside just Brown. In this case, the Pittsburgh star (is this entire article just a roundabout way of promoting him as a reasonable No. 1 overall PPR pick?) and Golden Tate are the only players to amass at least 90 receptions in each of the past four seasons. During those four years with the Lions, Tate ranks ninth in targets (527) and sixth in catches (372). He’s one of four receivers to play in all four seasons and record a catch rate above 70.0 percent.

What’s the healthy floor for a high-volume wideout who hasn’t missed a game since 2012? Tate’s worst season in Detroit (2015) still resulted in a WR33 (24 in PPR) slotting. He currently carries a WR23 ADP, matching his 2016 finish with 91 catches for 1,077 yards and four touchdowns. Those numbers coincide closely with his annual averages (93 catches, 1,056 yards, 4.75 TDs), so a fifth-round pick is a perfectly fair price to pay for his bankable production. In PPR, his 46 ADP presents a tremendous high-floor value.

Marqise Lee (JAC)
Lee has scored eight touchdowns in 53 career games, so the ceiling is not exactly immense. Yet based on his WR50 ADP, the floor could be higher than some drafters realize. The Jacksonville wideout entered Week 15 just four targets shy of cementing triple-digit targets for the second straight season. He instead suffered an ankle injury, costing him the final two weeks. Lee, who averaged 58.5 yards over a dozen games from Weeks 2 to 14, nevertheless ended 2017 as the AFC South champion’s target leader.

When submitting a full 16 games in 2016, the former second-round pick checked in as WR41 with 851 yards and three scores. He’ll need more than eight red-zone targets, which he received in each of the past two seasons, to shine as anything more than a flex option or a bye-week replacement. regardless, he’s a sneaky candidate to chase 1,000 yards as Blake Bortles’ primary target.

Mohamed Sanu (ATL)
Even if his floor is respectable, a very low ceiling derails any excitement Sanu. He has never reached 100 targets, 800 yards, or six touchdowns in a single season. Barring an injury to Julio Jones, last year’s WR34 placement (29 in PPR) might be as good as it gets.

He’d be a comfortable fade if valued anywhere near that price point. He instead has garnered a WR61 ADP behind the likes Martavis Bryant and Dez Bryant. The main culprit for his drop, rookie Calvin Ridley, is going significantly higher (WR46). Perhaps any praise for the steady 28-year-old is simply reason to avoid his younger teammate, as they will likely jeopardize each other’s value since the Falcons did not lose any significant contributors from 2017.

Although a boring fantasy option, Sanu is a perfect WR2 for an NFL squad. He’s durable, playing in all but two games in the last five years. He’s also dependable, drawing a 71.2 catch percentage in two seasons with the Falcons. As far as bye-week wideout replacements go, his floor is relatively stable. The Rutgers alum offered more than seven PPR points in all but three bouts last year. Don’t feel compelled to draft Sanu in a shallow league, but he’s a decent bench security blanket in deeper formats.

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