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5 Wide Receiver Busts (2018 Fantasy Football)

5 Wide Receiver Busts (2018 Fantasy Football)

Finding the hidden gems and value picks in fantasy football drafts is always popular, but knowing which players are likely to bust is equally important. Even the term “bust” is open to interpretation. Just because a player is being labeled with that word doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s a target to avoid at all costs.

For our purposes, a bust is a player that is unlikely to live up to his current ADP. He might wind up being a useful fantasy option, but too much hype, unfortunate circumstances, or a myriad of other factors are far more likely to wind up making him a bad value in fantasy football drafts. Here are some wide receivers to avoid, or to approach very cautiously in 2018 fantasy football drafts and auctions.

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Adam Thielen (MIN) WR11
Thielen followed up his breakout 2016 campaign with a phenomenal 2017, catching 91 balls for 1,277 yards and ending the season at a top-10 fantasy wide receiver. The Vikings looked poised to remain legitimate contenders, and the arrival of QB Kirk Cousins has many believing that Thielen will remain a locked-in fantasy WR1. While the Cousins signing might be a positive for the Vikings, it’s more likely to work against Thielen’s outrageous target share from 2017. Theilen commanded a whopping 143 targets last year from Case Keenum, but Cousins is much more adept at spreading the ball around, rather than relying on one particular option. Only three wide receivers surpassed 100 targets during Cousins’s stint in Washington, and none eclipsed 114 in any season, a figure that would have ranked just 17th last season.

With a top-10 running back, top-10 tight end and breakout candidate Stefon Diggs also in the lineup, Minnesota also has plenty of talented pass-catching options to appease Cousins. With a healthy Davlin Cook and Latavius Murray in the backfield, I also think the Vikings will make a legitimate effort to run a lot more than they did last year, further reducing the number of looks Thielen will command. Thielen has also scored just 10 touchdowns in four seasons, which caps his upside. Add in a significant reduction in targets, and Thielen looks more and more like a WR2 that is being drafted at his WR1 ceiling.

Jarvis Landry (CLE) WR17
Most people wisely lowered their expectations for Landry once he signed with Cleveland, but his ADP has remained relatively healthy, staying inside the top 20 according to several sources. Landry’s track record of sheer volume makes him look like a solid value pick in the fourth round, but I just can’t see a Browns offense quarterbacked by Tyrod Taylor being able to support the 143 annual targets Landry has averaged since coming into the league.

In Buffalo, Taylor was far more likely to rely on his backs and tight ends than press the ball downfield. Since becoming a starter in 2015, Taylor has supported just one WR2, Sammy Watkins back in 2015. In the past two seasons, no wideout from a Tyrod Taylor-led offense has finished higher than WR72. Of course, Taylor didn’t have a weapon as good as Landry while he was with the Bills, so Landry’s role in the passing game could be just fine. But with three running backs, a running quarterback, and a solid supporting cast of pass catchers, I’m more comfortable with Landry as a WR3/flex option than with his current WR2 cost.

Josh Gordon (CLE) WR27
I’m rooting for Gordon. He’s an immense talent and has battled some serious off-the-field issues. First and foremost, I hope he can get healthy and put his vast talent to good use. Along with that talent comes enormous risk, though.

I’m quite shocked that Gordon is still being targeted by the fantasy football community as high as he is. A full four NFL seasons have come and gone since Gordon’s breakout 2013 campaign. While he is still only 27 years old, there have been precious few signs in those four years that have shown that Gordon is ready to reclaim his elite status.

Like Jarvis Landry, Gordon is also hampered by the same offensive issues that have me skeptical of Cleveland’s ability to produce a WR1 or WR2…much less two such players. There are still lots of quality fantasy options, like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Chris Hogan, available at the point of the draft where someone is going to be intrigued by Gordon’s upside. I find myself choosing to take the safer options every time.

Michael Crabtree (BAL) WR28
Last year, Crabtree’s efficiency numbers dipped down to the lowest totals we’ve seen since 2014, yet he was still able to salvage a PPR WR30 season on the strength of his eight touchdowns in 13 grabs. Crabtree has been a reliable source of TDs, scoring 25 in the past three seasons, but he’s going to struggle to come anywhere near that figure with Joe Flacco under center. In 10 seasons as Baltimore’s starting quarterback, ONE wide receiver has managed to be in the top seven in touchdown receptions. For a fantasy wideout to return WR3 or better production, he’s going to have to be a proficient touchdown scorer or surpass 100-plus targets. It’s pretty rare for wide receivers to hit either of those marks in a Flacco-led offense, much less a 31-year-old possession receiver who has never been much of a downfield threat.

Devin Funchess (CAR) WR35
A lot of smart people bought the breakout narrative for Funchess last season, and the third-year wideout posted career-best numbers en route to a WR21 finish. But with the Panthers entering 2018 fully healthy and boasting some new offensive additions doesn’t bode well for him, as he will be hard-pressed to match those lofty numbers. Carolina will undoubtedly continue to feature RB Christian McCaffrey in the passing game, and they also added C.J. Anderson, who is a much better receiver than Jonathan Stewart. The club also spent the No. 24 pick on Maryland speedster D.J. Moore, who many pegged as the top wideout of the 2018 draft class, and traded for veteran deep-threat Torrey Smith.

In addition to Moore and Smith taking looks away from Funchess, the return of TE Greg Olsen might be the biggest hindrance to Funchess’s top billing. Olsen has always been a favorite of QB Cam Newton and averaged 125 targets from 2014-2016. With Norv Turner now the offensive coordinator, the Panthers aren’t going to suddenly become an all-out passing attack. Instead, they’ll remain a run-first offense that finishes with modest to below average passing numbers. That will make it extremely difficult for Funchess to be anything more than a touchdown-dependant flex player, rather than a weekly WR3.


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Jody Smith is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jody, check out his archive and follow him @JodySmithNFL.

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