Week 4 is over and to paraphrase Bill Belichick, we’re onto Week 5. By now, you know the drill. This is where we look at some of the biggest week-to-week fluctuations in FanDuel pricing, and try to give you a leg up on the competition. There are a lot of potential values on this slate, as well as some risky options to be identified, so let’s not waste any time. Let’s do this!
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Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota (TEN): $6,800 @ BUF (+$500)
Now, there’s the Mariota we’ve been wanting to see. After a brilliant sophomore season in 2016, the injury bug has bit the former 2015 second overall pick hard, and the flashes of greatness he had displayed in years past have few and far between. However, we saw the Mariota of old on Sunday afternoon when he led the Titans to one of their biggest regular season wins in recent memory, in a thrilling overtime victory over the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
In the process, he produced the sort of fantasy numbers that makes one salivate, throwing for 344 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while adding 10 carries for 46 yards and another score. The best part is that his elite production could continue in Week 5. The Buffalo Bills have allowed 19.1 FanDuel points per contest to opposing signal callers (13th-most), and they’ve also allowed three passing touchdown days to both Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers. Even with his increase in value, Mariota is still only the 22nd-costliest quarterback on the slate in a plus matchup. It’s a bit of a gamble but he could pay considerable dividends.
Case Keenum (DEN): $6,500 @ NYJ (-$700)
I like Keenum a lot, but admittedly, he’s seen his share of struggles recently. After throwing three touchdowns in the Broncos’ season opener, the former Viking has held without a touchdown pass in three consecutive contests, and he’s already accumulated six interceptions on the season. It’s not exactly panic time, but he certainly isn’t someone you can feel comfortable playing in any format until he turns things around.
This week, he draws a Jets defense that has only allowed five passing touchdowns on the season and has picked off opposing signal callers six times (to be fair, five of those came against the Detroit Lions in Week One). It’s not a great matchup for a player that is currently enduring some growing pains with his new team. I hope he can get his game back on track soon, but for now, he shouldn’t be in your lineup.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (GB): $6,100 @ DET (+$600)
Jones looked like the Packers’ best running back in 2017, and it hasn’t taken long for him to prove that’s still the case. In a 22-0 victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, Jones took 11 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown, while providing the ground game with a much-needed dose of energy. In his first two contests back from suspension, Jones has averaged 6.3 yards per carry, which is up from the remarkable 5.5 yards per tote he produced last season. Meanwhile, his teammates Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery are averaging 3.4 and 4.5, respectively.
This backfield remains a committee for the time being, but Jones actually played the most snaps in Week 4 and is going to keep earning more and more work if he continues to outplay his competition. This week, he draws a Lions defense that has allowed 30.8 FanDuel points to opposing runners per contest (third-most), and he will likely build on his impressive start. While the cost of starting him has gone up significantly, he’s still a potential running back value play this week.
Alex Collins (BAL): $6,500 @ CLE (-$500)
In the early-going of 2018, Collins hasn’t quite replicated the brilliant play he produced down the stretch last season, but that’s not entirely his fault. Although Collins was projected to be a featured runner, he’s ended becoming a committee back. While it’s true his 3.5 yards per carry is way down from the 4.6 he averaged a year ago, his diminished workload is the main culprit in regards to his decline in productivity.
To this point in the season, he’s only surpassed 11 carries in one of four games and has been targeted only 10 times. Javorius Allen has received 41 total touches and has actually out-snapped him 145-141 over the first four weeks, while Kenneth Dixon actually out-carried Collins 13-7 in the opener. Clearly, it’s been a bizarre season.
While he should be seeing a cost hike in a match-up with a Browns’ defense that Marshawn Lynch just dismantled, Collins’ workload concerns make him a risky proposition, and his fumble on the one-yard line last week has left some people uncomfortable about his job security. A $500 drop is significant, but until the Ravens decide to abandon this timeshare, it’s tough to trust the third-year pro in any format.
Wide Receivers
Corey Davis (TEN): $6,400 @ BUF (+$1,000)
It took a little while, but =Davis finally scored his first NFL touchdown. The fact that it was a game-ending overtime winner over the Super Bowl champions only made it that much sweeter for the fifth overall pick of the 2017 NFL Draft. Indeed, this was the breakout game we’ve been hoping for from Davis for a long time, and he didn’t disappoint, snaring nine receptions for 161 yards and a score on 15 targets (all career-highs). The former Western Michigan standout has always been long on ability and if the Titans’ offense is finally on track, he could be a stud over the rest of the season.
This week, he draws a Bills defense that has been decent against the pass, but he’s clearly shown what he’s capable of when his quarterback is at his best. Although he’s seen a $1,000 value increase this week, Davis is still a tempting play, even if we’re admittedly chasing last week’s totals.
Doug Baldwin (SEA): $6,700 vs. LAR (-$500)
Baldwin’s first game back since Week 1 resulted in a workmanlike five catches for 40 yards. It wasn’t a bad performance by any means, but it certainly didn’t anyone money. The reason for his precipitous decline in value for Week 5 has more to do with the current state of the Seahawks’ offense than anything Baldwin himself has done wrong. Shockingly, the ‘Hawks are the NFL’s 26th-ranked passing offense, and franchise quarterback Russell Wilson has passed for fewer than 200 yards in each of his last two contests. No one’s blaming Wilson for the franchise’s struggles, but for now, it would be wise to fade the majority of the team’s passing attack.
In Week 5, Baldwin draws a Rams secondary that was just ripped apart by Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs on Thursday Night Football, but has generally performed well in 2018. Aqib Talib was unfortunately placed on injured reserve this week, but even with his absence, it’s tough to trust any Seahawks pass-catcher for the time being.
Tight Ends
George Kittle (SF): $6,400 vs. ARI (+$700)
If you were worried that Kittle was going to struggle without Jimmy Garoppolo, it appears those fears have been allayed. Kittle went off against the Chargers in Week 4, securing six of eight targets for 125 yards and a touchdown, while displaying impressive chemistry with C.J. Beathard. The former Iowa tight end and SPARQ score dynamo is prepared to continue his breakout campaign in Week 5 against an Arizona team that poses a matchup that is neither enticing or imposing.
Kittle doesn’t come cheap, as his $6,400 value makes him the fourth-most expensive option on the slate, but he’s quickly cementing himself as one of the more reliable tight ends in the game, receiving seven-plus targets and producing 79-plus yards in all but one contest this season. Kittle’s floor is rock solid and you’ve just seen what he’s capable of when he approaches his ceiling. There isn’t currently a more reliable pass-catcher on the 49ers, and Beathard should continue to pepper him with targets.
Vance McDonald (PIT): $4,600 vs. ATL (-$900)
McDonald has piled up nine receptions for 174 yards and a touchdown over his last two games, and this week he draws a Falcons defense that has allowed a stunning 941 total yards and 80 points over their last two contests. The Steelers will likely be throwing a lot in this one and McDonald’s connection with Ben Roethlisberger seems to be getting better all the time. So naturally, McDonald’s value has dropped by $900 this week.
I don’t understand it either, but I’m more than happy to exploit it. The tight end landscape has been a disaster this year as injuries and general inconsistencies have afflicted the position to ridiculous extents. There simply aren’t many quality options available on a week-to-week basis. Meanwhile, in Week 5, McDonald is the 21st-most expensive tight end on the slate (tied), and he has top ten upside. If you want to build your roster around running backs and receivers, he can be rostered for approximately $3,000 less than the big names like Rob Gronkowski (questionable), Travis Kelce (bad match-up), and Zach Ertz (middling match-up). This is a tremendous value.
David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.