Every week a nonsensical outcome sends countless fantasy football players and analysts into an existential crisis. Week 6 offered more oddities than usual.
This is referring to more than a fluke play or garbage-time touchdown. Sometimes a player nobody could have reasonably liked delivers a week-winning extravaganza. Like Dak Prescott destroying the Jaguars as the QB2 and Cole Beasley scoring his first two touchdowns since Nov. 5, 2017. Oh yeah, let’s not forget about Brock Osweiler torching the Bears, who rank first in defensive DVOA, for 380 passing yards and three touchdowns as a late replacement for Ryan Tannehill. And hey, who ranked Albert Wilson, Marquise Goodwin, and Tyrell Williams as top-five wide receivers?
Anyone who read those predictions last Friday would have laughed and called the writer mean names. An analyst may look like a genius now had he or she ranked Osweiler in the top 10. It also would have been remarkably dumb to project barring some inside knowledge of Chicago’s secondary downing Jager shots minutes before the opening kickoff. That randomness will drive everyone mad, but a plugged-in player can only hope a logical process pays off in the long run.
Last week’s picks came with mixed results. Honestly, these probably will too. Although the experts may regret not predicting a Chris Herndon IV breakout, they tend to know what they’re talking about. Yet nobody is infallible, so here are some instances where I differentiate from the standard ECR (using all experts as of Thursday evening.)
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Quarterback
Undervalued: Carson Wentz (PHI vs. CAR) – ECR: QB9; My Rank: QB6
Carson Wentz started the week maneuvering for top-12 positioning, but he has since risen into the top 10. I’ll take that as a sign that everyone else is noting the factors that led me to place him sixth. The QB8 (12 in PPG) since returning from a torn ACL, the Philadelphia passer is averaging 298 passing yards and two touchdowns per game. He hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 1 and boasts a higher completion percentage (68.4) and quarterback rating (104.7) than in what many considered an MVP-caliber season before going down. Carolina’s defense carries some clout, but it’s not a unit to fear. They’re a tick behind the Giants — whom Wentz just dissected for 278 yards and three touchdowns — with 17.7 fantasy points surrendered per game to quarterbacks. They’re a middle-of-the-pack defense despite already facing all of Philadelphia’s middling NFC East contemporaries. It’s time to put aside early apprehension and consider Wentz a QB1 again.
Overvalued: Jameis Winston (TB vs. CLE) – ECR: QB8; My Rank: QB13
It’s possible my views of Jameis Winston as a person are preventing me from objectively judging the player’s fantasy football value. Full disclosure: I’ll never roster him in a league (or DFS lineup) even if he’s throwing six touchdowns a game. There are also football reasons to dislike someone who has already thrown four interceptions in six quarters. The hype is understandable. He’s averaging 329.8 yards over his last six starts and has a vast assortment of pass-catching talent. Yet last week’s 395 yards and four touchdowns came against Atlanta, the NFL’s third-worst passing defense ahead of only Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Perhaps this ranking says less about him and more about the Browns, who have limited opposing quarterbacks to the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (14.6). Winston would have to out-do Ben Roethlisberger (QB21 in Week 1), Drew Brees (QB14 in Week 2), and Philip Rivers (QB20 in Week 6) just to validate my skeptical QB13 ranking. Brees (QB12 ECR) has a brutal matchup at Baltimore, but I’d trust him in a tough spot before using Winston against a unit with a 56.8 opposing completion percentage and 76.8 passer rating.
Running Back
Undervalued: Marlon Mack (IND vs. BUF) – ECR: RB26; My Rank: RB23
I’ve targeted Buffalo’s run defense before. It resulted in Latavius Murray mustering one rushing yard. The Bills haven’t been all that bad since yielding six touchdowns to running backs in the opening two games. They’re eighth against the run (92.5 yards per game) with 3.8 yards allowed per run. Yet Derek Anderson is their starting quarterback, so this presents a rare opportunity for the 1-5 Colts to establish the run. Andrew Luck has attempted 48 passes per game, but he should receive a needed reprieve with his squad favored by 7.5 points at home. Mack returned from a four-week absence to gain 89 yards on a dozen rushes. He instantly vaulted into their primary rusher with Jordan Wilkins not receiving a single touch. Nyheim Hines should take a back seat if the Colts don’t surrender points to Anderson, making Mack a fine start despite his team’s pass-happy ways.
Overvalued: Corey Clement (PHI vs. CAR) – ECR: RB23; My Rank: RB30
The experts are hitching their wagon to Corey Clement following his 69 yards and a touchdown in Philadelphia’s first game since placing Jay Ajayi on the injured reserve. Tossing him in the top 25 seems to ignore the risks of a clear committee with Wendell Smallwood, who played 44 snaps to his teammate’s 26. He also scooped up 19 touches compared to Clement’s 13. Carolina has ceded 4.6 yards per carry, so this isn’t a hypocritical matchup appeal after promoting Wentz against the same defense. Clement isn’t necessarily the preferred goal-line back either. Smallwood, who produced six red-zone handoffs in Week 6, scored the touchdown when they last shared the field without Ajayi. If I’m playing someone in a split, I’d prefer Tarik Cohen’s RB1 upside or Mack’s optimal game script.
Wide Receiver
Undervalued: Jermaine Kearse (NYJ vs. MIN) – ECR: WR53; My Rank: WR43
I’m not sure I’m high enough on Jermaine Kearse. Quincy Enunwa, who drew 36 targets in the first four games, is out with a high ankle sprain. Taking over his slot role, Kearse caught nine of 10 targets for 94 yards in Week 6’s win over the Colts. Initially eased back into action after missing the opener with an abdominal injury, he has played over 80 percent of New York’s snaps in two of the last three contests. He has also received red-zone targets in consecutive bouts, and the Vikings aren’t as bad a matchup as one might think. Despite facing the Bills and Cardinals, they’re 19th in passing defense. Sam Darnold should continue to prioritize his slot option. As noted by Michael Florio on NFL.com, the Vikings have allowed four touchdowns to slot receivers this season and 22.4 PPR points per game over the past three weeks. He makes sense as a bye-week replacement for gamers seeking a high-floor pivot. Although an even more enticing PPR choice, his ECR stays the same in that format.
Overvalued: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. HOU)
Donte Moncrief went from 14 targets to zero. He’s tied with Keelan Cole for a team-high 39 targets, but Dede Westbrook and T.J. Yeldon are right behind them with 38 apiece. Each receiver has logged double-digit targets or 100 yards once (not necessarily the same game). None of them have found the end zone or recorded more than five catches in consecutive weeks. This is a long way of saying that’s there’s no consistent top wideout to start with confidence. As a result, I’m skittish on all of them.
- Dede Westbrook – ECR: WR34; My Rank: WR38
- Keelan Cole – ECR: WR35; My Rank: WR39
- Donte Moncrief – ECR: WR50; My Rank: WR55
After weeks of slotting Cole ahead of Westbrook, they swap places since the former has caught just eight of 18 targets for 126 yards in the last three games. Moncrief, meanwhile, is too erratic. While he hit big with 185 combined yards and a score in Weeks 4 and 5, he has fallen short of 20 yards in three other contests. One of these guys will blow past his tame ranking at home against a Texans defense 22nd in DVOA against the pass. I just don’t like the odds of guessing right. Treat the entire group with a grain of salt unless one can differentiate himself on a weekly basis.
Tight End
Undervalued: David Njoku (CLE at TB) – ECR: TE6; My Rank: TE4
Note that I have Evan Engram far higher (TE9) than the consensus (TE18), but I’m guessing his uncertain availability is the primary reason behind the discrepancy. The position is too awful for most investors to take a wait-and-see approach if he’s active. David Njoku held a TE4 ECR earlier in the week, but he dropped two spots as of Thursday night. Everyone had it right the first time. He has drawn a 23.1-percent target share (30-of-130) in Baker Mayfield’s three starts with an increasing number of looks (seven, 11, 12) and catches (five, six, and seven) in each game. The preseason standout scored his first touchdown of the season on one of Week 6’s two red-zone targets. Now he faces the Buccaneers, who are very bad at defense. Austin Hooper occupied this space because of the same matchup, and he finished as the position’s top Week 6 scorer. Having allowed an NFL-high 13.3 fantasy points per game to the position, each of their last four opponents finished inside the top 10:
- Zach Ertz (11 REC, 94 YDs): TE8
- Vance McDonald (4 REC, 112 YDs, 1 TD): TE1
- Trey Burton (2 REC, 86 YDs, 1 TD): TE3
- Austin Hooper (9 REC, 71 YDs, 1 TD): TE1
I don’t have the courage to rank him ahead of Ertz, Travis Kelce, or Rob Gronkowski, but Njoku is my clear TE4 who should lock down the spot in DFS cash lineups.
Overvalued: Austin Hooper (ATL vs. NYG) – ECR: TE9; My Rank: TE12
It turns out I was also too low on Hooper, who rewarded my recommendation with nine catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. Now that the consensus is on board following back-to-back gems, I’m retreating. Week 6’s endorsement was not calling for a breakout, but merely recognizing another savory matchup. He has now caught nine catches in consecutive contests against Pittsburgh and Tampa, the NFL’s bottom-two defenses against tight ends. He had previously never registered more than seven catches in a game. Nor had he fielded double-digit targets before doing so twice. I’ll have to reconsider my stance if Calvin Ridley and/or Mohamed Sanu miss Monday night, but Hooper is likely to fade back into the shadows against a Giants defense that has forfeited a touchdown to just one tight end (Ertz) this season. With all that said, I picked him up as streamer to replace Jared Cook in one league. Tight end is a wasteland, so there isn’t a better waiver-wire option unless O.J. Howard is still available for some weird reason.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
