A stud running back who’s game-script proof soaks up a substantial chunk of salary cap on the team below, but his sky-high floor and ceiling are worth paying up for. He’s joined by a running back who’s a massive favorite and tied to one of the co-highest team over/under totals of the week. The running backs are not the only runners on this team, as a run-first quarterback makes for a high-floor play at an affordable cap hit. A rookie wideout coming off of a career day joins a grizzled veteran receiver with a plum draw at this squad’s touted receivers. Tight end is a punt who’s in store of a role increase in the wake of an IR placement for the guy ahead of him on the depth chart, and the D/ST is a home favorite facing a pitiful offense.
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Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (BAL): $5,700 vs. Raiders
Jackson had a successful debut. He wasn’t asked to do much through the air, attempting only 19 passes and completing 13 for 150 yards and an interception. However, he carved the Bengals up with his legs rushing for 117 yards on 27 carries. Because Jackson presents a unique defensive challenge and isn’t your standard mobile quarterback,
I think it’s prudent to look at Oakland’s overall defense against the run as opposed to just how they’ve done defending quarterbacks as runners. The Raiders have permitted 4.8 yards per carry, a mark tied for the sixth highest in the NFL. They also have an NFL-low nine sacks in 10 games. To average less than one sack per game in today’s pass-happy NFL is completely unfathomable, but with a clean pocket laying ahead for Jackson most of Sunday afternoon, we could get a chance to see him do more damage with his arm. Regardless, he’s going to be a chalky option this week — for good reason — and his floor is elevated by his rushing ability.
Other Notables:
- Andrew Luck (IND): $6,400 vs. Dolphins
- Jameis Winston (TB): $6,000 vs. 49ers
- Baker Mayfield (CLE): $5,500 at Bengals
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (NYG): $9,100 at Eagles
When Barkley and the Giants squared off with the Eagles on Thursday Night Football in Week 6, the do-it-all rookie back rumbled for 130 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries and obliterated them through the air for 99 yards and nine reception on 12 targets. Honestly, if I left Barkley’s analysis at that, it would be reason enough to pony up for him. I won’t do that, though. Instead, I’ll point out his high floor and ceiling by noting that he’s averaging 15.8 carries, 6.4 receptions, and 126.8 yards from scrimmage per game with 10 touchdowns. He’ll give you a solid point-scoring foundation at the least, and he can single-handedly make up for a misstep at another position on your cash game’s roster if he flirts with his ceiling.
Marlon Mack (IND): $5,500 vs. Dolphins
The Colts are 7.5-point favorites and have the co-Week 12 high for team over/under totals at 30.5 points, according to Pinnacle. As far as the odds and betting info goes, it comes up roses for Mack. The second-year back has a great matchup, too. The Dolphins have yielded the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to running backs this year, per Pro-Football-Reference. Furthermore, Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them just 21st defending the run.
Oh, and did I mention Mack’s having a fantastic season while running behind a top-flight offensive line? The second-year back has twice surpassed 100 yards rushing in six games played, has five touchdowns, and is averaging 90.7 yards from scrimmage per game while getting excellent blocking from an offensive line that FO ranks third in adjusted line yards. He’s underpriced and should be locked into cash games lines — and I love him in GPPs, too, even if that’s not the focus of this particular piece.
Other Notables:
- James Conner (PIT): $7,800 at Broncos
- Leonard Fournette (JAC): $6,700 at Bills
- Nick Chubb (CLE): $6,300 at Bengals
- Matt Breida (SF): $5,700 at Buccaneers
Wide Receivers
Julian Edelman (NE): $7,000 at Jets
Edelman opened the season by serving a PED suspension, but he’s quickly gotten up to speed in New England’s offense. The slot wideout has caught four or more balls in all six games he’s played and caught 24 on 32 targets over the last three games. He’s also twice surpassed 100 yards receiving in that three-game stretch, and he’s bested 100 yards of offense or scored a touchdown in five straight.
He’s been extremely reliable week to week, and he has a dreamy draw against the Jets’ secondary that’s getting embarrassed by slot receivers. Golden Tate (7-79-1), Jarvis Landry (8-103-0), Dede Westbrook (9-130-0), Emmanuel Sander (9-72-0), Adam Thielen (9-110-1), Anthony Miller (3-37-1), and Zay Jones (8-93-1) have all fattened their stat lines against the Jets and serve as their respective clubs’ primary slot receivers. Look for Edelman to be the next slot receiver to wallop the Jets.
D.J. Moore (CAR): $4,600 vs. Seahawks
I usually would prefer a player with a more bankable volume of targets/touches than Moore possesses, but his price point is too good after the best game (7-157-1) of his young career. Additionally, he’s played more than 70% of Carolina’s snaps in four straight, and Devin Funchess is dealing with a back injury that prevented him from practicing Wednesday. Seattle’s secondary hasn’t exactly locked up receivers, either. The Seahawks are tied for the 12th-most DraftKings points per game allowed to receivers.
Moore’s capable of ripping off a big play to hit value and doesn’t need a ton of touches and targets to hit value. However, even in his last four games with increased playing time, he’s demonstrated the low floor that accompanies a lack of volume with 48 yards from scrimmage and one reception in Week 9 and 25 yards from scrimmage and four receptions in Week 10. Is he the safest option on? Probably not, but the bargain bin at receiver isn’t exactly overflowing with standout options this week.
Other Notables:
- Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG): $8,800 at Eagles
- Mike Evans (TB): $7,700 vs. 49ers
- T.Y. Hilton (IND): $6,500 vs. Dolphins
- Tyler Boyd (CIN): $6,000 vs. Browns
- Doug Baldwin (SEA): $5,100 at Panthers
Tight End
Cameron Brate (TB): $3,600 vs. 49ers
I’ll start by addressing the forthcoming elephant in the room. I’ve listed the two most expensive tight ends below in the other notables section. Obviously they can’t be squeezed in reasonably with the other previous selections, namely Barkley. If you’re willing to spin down from Barkley (which isn’t my preference, as you should’ve deduced from the picks I’m suggesting) to one of the other notables, you can spin up from Brate to either of the top-two tight ends. I don’t think it’s crazy, especially if you’re less bullish on Brate or the other punt option below.
I, however, am bullish on Brate’s outlook in the wake of O.J. Howard’s placement on IR. He and Winston have a previously established rapport, and Brate’s a touchdown machine. Three of Brate’s 17 receptions this season have gone for scores, and among tight ends since 2016, his 17 touchdowns are tied for the third most.
Other Notables:
- Zach Ertz (PHI): $6,400 vs. Giants
- George Kittle (SF): $6,200 at Buccaneers
- David Njoku (CLE): $3,800 at Bengals
D/ST
Colts (IND): $2,900 vs. Dolphins
If you’re scrounging for a few extra hundred dollars to squeeze your preferred option in at WR3 or flex, don’t hesitate to spin down to one of the three-point home underdogs below. I didn’t run into that problem building my top cash game lineup, so I’ll take the 7.5-point favored Colts against Miami’s bad offense.
Ryan Tannehill is coming back from his shoulder injury this week, but this isn’t peak Dan Marino returning to carry Miami’s terrible offense. The Dolphins scored 24 points combined in Tannehill’s last two games against the defensive juggernaut Patriots and Bengals. Tannehill took 11 sacks and threw five interceptions in his five games played this season, and he returns to an offense that’s banged up at receiver.
If the game goes according to the betting line, Miami will be put in predictable passing situations which will provide the Colts ample opportunities to pin their ears back, pile up sacks, and generate pressure that could lead to turnovers, too. That’s the beauty of a favorable game script. Miami’s team over/under total is a non-threatening 20.5 points.
Other Notables:
- Bills (BUF): $2,700 vs. Jaguars
- Broncos (DEN): $2,300 vs. Steelers
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
