This week has been the most difficult one of the season to find value plays. Six teams are on bye, which makes the options very limited on the Week 9 slate. First off, there are far less players overall to choose from. As a result, guys that would usually be pretty cheap are going to be more expensive this week. Add it all up and we have our trickiest lineup construction of the season when it comes to finding value. Do we change our approach? No we don’t. Trust the process, trust the trends. If you pay attention to touch counts, snap counts, and especially matchups, no slate can be too daunting. I’m always up for a challenge.
Last week’s results (point values are for full-point PPR):
QB: Russell Wilson – 23.4
RB: Aaron Jones – 16.6
RB: Wendell Smallwood – 14.6
WR: Michael Crabtree – 6.1
WR: Dede Westbrook – 12
TE: C.J. Uzomah – 0.0
No, C.J. Uzomah did not get hurt and leave the game last week. Yes, I wrote his score as 0.0 instead of 0 because I was hoping it wouldn’t look as bad if there were two digits. This is just one of those times when all you can do is scratch your head. Matchup, check. Trend in production, check. Results, nothing. Fantasy football will do that to you sometimes. Hopefully Week 9 will be a little less cruel.
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Quarterback
Derek Carr (OAK): $5,400 at SF
The reason this scares me is because Derek Carr hasn’t strung together two consecutive games of 15 fantasy points or more yet this season. He had 27.8 points last week, so history tells us that he should finish with less than 15 this week. However, if he’s ever gonna break that curse, this is the matchup to do it. Over the last three weeks, the 49ers have given up an average of 21.4 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They even allowed Josh Rosen to accumulate 19.3 last week, his best outing of the season. Derek Carr has really struggled at times, but he’s still a better NFL quarterback than Josh Rosen at this point in his career.
On top of that, San Francisco has only given up 4.0 yards per attempt on the ground this season, a number that trails only seven other teams. With Marshawn Lynch on injured reserve, the Raiders aren’t likely to give Doug Martin quite as big a workload, especially against a 49ers run defense that has been better than expected. Martin only had 13 carries last week, while Lynch’s season high was 20. You’re always playing with fire when using Derek Carr, but I’m about as confident as I can be this week that he’ll return value.
Running Backs
Dion Lewis (TEN): $4,700 at DAL
When I first started doing research on Dion Lewis this week, I thought he was a decent, but unspectacular option. However, the more I look into it, the more I’m feeling like Lewis is a must-play on DraftKings in Week 9. The Cowboys have given up a minimum of 10 PPR points per game to every running back they’ve faced this year that has led their backfield in touches. At first, I wasn’t sure if I could recommend Lewis because I wasn’t confident that he’d out-touch Derrick Henry. After looking into the numbers, though, it’s pretty clear that this backfield belongs to Dion Lewis. He leads the touch battle over Henry 102 to 90 this season and has played over 100 more total snaps. In the past three weeks alone, Lewis has averaged nearly 14 touches per game, while Henry has averaged 11.
Dallas has surrendered 16.1 points per game this season to backfield touch leaders, but that still isn’t the best part. Three of the four biggest games that Dallas has given up to running backs this year came against Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Alfred Blue. Their reception totals in those games were six, 14 and eight. Lewis already has three games this year with five or more catches, and he’s definitely the one that’s gonna catch passes between him and Henry. If I wanted to spend up at other positions this week, I’d plug Lewis in first and then build around him.
Aaron Jones (GB): $4,400 at NE
I should change the name of this article to “The Aaron Jones Weekly Preview,” because I feel like I write about him every week. What that reveals about me is that I’m a huge fan of players who have upside way higher than what their price represents. Aaron Jones had two games last season as the starter in which he produced at least 134 total yards and a touchdown. We know that’s the ceiling he’s capable of. You’d usually have to venture into the $6,000s or $7,000s to find that kind of upside, but instead, we’re continuing to get Jones at price in the low $4,000s.
Everything has been going his way lately. Coming out of the bye week, Jones out-touched Jamaal Williams 14 to 4. In each of the two games prior to that, Jones only had one more touch than Williams. Additionally, Green Bay traded away Ty Montgomery this week to the Ravens, freeing up even more touches for Jones. The matchup with New England couldn’t come at a better time, as they’ve allowed an average of 18.3 PPR points over the past six weeks to running backs who led or co-led their backfields in touches (Kerryon Johnson co-led with LeGarrette Blount in Week 3). The over/under for this game is currently set at 56.5, which is mouthwatering for Jones. It’s a good week to get him in your lineups.
Wide Receivers
Michael Crabtree (BAL): $4,800 vs. PIT
Okay, if Crabtree doesn’t perform this week, I’ll stop recommending him. I’m a huge believer in the idea that targets lead to production. Crabtree is leading Baltimore in targets, averaging 8.6 per game. If you can find that for less than $5,000 you need to take advantage. His matchup this week with Pittsburgh isn’t fantastic but it isn’t terrible either. There’s a chance that Crabtree could be shadowed by Joe Haden, but the Steelers could just as well decide to put Haden on John Brown. They might even switch to zone coverage and eliminate shadow coverage altogether, deciding that there isn’t a clear-cut option to shut down.
Over their last three games, the Steelers have given up an average of 13.8 PPR points to the combination of Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Antonio Callaway, all of which were considered the top perimeter receiving option for their team at the time (Callaway because Landry plays from the slot). Regardless of who Pittsburgh decides is the number one option, Crabtree is $1,000 cheaper than Brown, so I’ll always choose the one that comes at a discount. Even if Crabtree is covered by Haden, he’s more of a bend but don’t break type of cornerback. He won’t give up the big play, but he will give up some underneath production. Crabtree isn’t a big-play receiver anyway, so I wouldn’t run from this matchup. It’s too hard to ignore the combination of his projected target volume and price.
Danny Amendola (MIA): $4,700 vs. NYJ
It’s been sort of an unwritten rule over the first half of the season to play slot receivers against the Jets. Seriously, do it every week. Buster Skrine covers the slot for the Jets and he’s continually one of the better defensive back matchups to pick on in DFS. Since the start of Week 3, the Jets have not given up less than 13.4 PPR fantasy points to an opposing slot receiver. It’s been a six-week span in which they’ve given up an average of 18.9 PPR points to the position.
These last three weeks for Amendola have been his three most productive of the season, and it’s no coincidence that Brock Osweiler has been behind center for each of them. Osweiler is not known to throw the ball down the field very often, instead opting for the short to intermediate routes. This is the area of the field in which Amendola thrives. He’s had at least five catches for 43 receiving yards in each of the past three games, with two total touchdowns (one was passing, for what it’s worth) in that stretch as well. Amendola is the perfect guy to use if you’re looking for a safe, high floor at an excellent price.
Tight End
Chris Herndon (NYJ): $3,000 at MIA
Many of you may not even recognize this name, which is okay, because I didn’t either until a few weeks ago. Herndon is the highest targeted tight end for the Jets, and announcers have been calling his name quite a bit recently, as he’s scored a touchdown in each of his last three contests. The reason to like him this week is that tight end touchdowns are exactly what the Dolphins have struggled with recently. They’ve given up a multi-touchdown game to a tight end in each of the past two weeks and also allowed a touchdown in Week 6. That’s five tight end touchdowns in the past three weeks.
When you see that Herndon is on a three-game scoring streak, you have to pay attention to the converging trends. Is there a chance that both streaks end this week? Of course there is, but at $3,000, what do you really have to lose? He’s cheap, and he has upside. That’s what we’re looking for.
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Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.
