Players to Fade on FanDuel: Week 10
Welcome to another edition of Players to Fade on FanDuel. For Week 10, we have a robust 11-game main slate awaiting us. DFS is harder than ever these days, and we need every edge we can get. It’s necessary to not only narrow it down to the best plays, but also be aware of who to avoid on a week-to-week basis. I’ll do my best each week to identify some of the players that could end up being landmines that sink our FanDuel lineups. Whether overpriced or in a bad spot, here’s a list of players I’m avoiding in Week 10. I’ll even throw in an extra WR for you this week. Let’s get to it!
Andrew Luck (IND): $7,800 vs. JAC
There is a lot of discussion about how Jacksonville is not the same defense from last year. Say what you will, this is still an extremely talented defense and they are still a top-10 unit across the NFL. The Jags currently rank as the seventh DVOA pass defense and also rank second in yards per pass allowed coming into this week. That’s a whole lot of limiting big plays and the Colts are not a big play offense. Granted, the Colts do run a fast-paced offense and Andrew Luck will likely have volume regardless, but I think a healthy Leonard Fournette returning for the Jags will take away some of that volume by slowing the game down to a Jag-friendly pace. Jacksonville will probably run a lot with their new three-headed monster at running back. Limiting Blake Bortles passing attempts is smart, the byproduct of this is a similar limited opportunity and outcome for Luck.
Joe Mixon (CIN): $8,000 vs. NO
I don’t like the Bengals offense this week as I think the offense will sputter without A.J. Green. Priced as a top-10 RB against a second-ranked DVOA Saints run defense that is best in the NFL in yards allowed per carry allowed. The Saints are the definition of a pass funnel defense as they’ve struggled mightily against the pass this season. Therefore, I expect the Bengals to have more success through the air. Mixon could get a nice share of targets in the pass game, but Gio Bernard is expected back this week so that could put a really low floor on Mixon as well. The workload has yet to be a concern, but this game has the makings of a pass-heavy affair and Mixon has not been catching the ball much in the last month since his return from injury.
Mark Ingram (NO): $6,800 @ CIN
Players coming off of a PED suspension have historically had sub-par production compared to pre-suspension numbers. This trend is maintaining in the case of Ingram. Last week, Alvin Kamara out-touched Mark Ingram 23 to 10 and he’s also out-touching him in the red zone and near the goal line. Now that both backs are healthy, there is an evident workload discrepancy and it’s not in Ingram’s favor. He may get some short-yardage work, so a goal-line touchdown is a real possibility simply due to variance, but he’s way overpriced. The price tag resembles that of a primary back and that’s not appealing as Kamara is getting more passing work as well and Ingram will need to get at least two TDs to come close to paying off your investment.
Tyler Boyd (CIN): $7,800 vs. NO
I already mentioned that I don’t like the Bengals this week. We’ve seen A.J. Green miss time in the past and guys like Brandon Lafell step up, but the WR corps is younger and a little banged up as well. Tyler Boyd will likely see shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore. The Bengals will be forced to pass more often than not without two of their top-three primary passing options (Tyler Eifert) on the shelf. C.J. Uzomah and John Ross are listed as questionable on the injury report so there isn’t much for Andy Dalton to throw to in this game. If Tyler Boyd is starting opposite the likes of Cody Core and Auden Tate, this could be an ugly game for Cincy and not playing Boyd in cash games is wise. You could play him in tournaments simply based on the matchup against the New Orleans pass D, but I’m avoiding him at this ridiculous price tag. He’s not a top-10 WR, don’t pay for that.
T.Y. Hilton (IND): $7,000 vs. JAC
If Andrew Luck is in this column, it’s a good chance his primary receiver will be as well. Some may argue that Jack Doyle is the number one in this offense, but that’s all the more reason to fade Hilton. I already mentioned that the Jags are great at limiting the big play and that’s Hilton’s specialty. The Colts have been doing a pretty good job of getting him some shorter, more efficient targets this year, but the targets in general have been up due to the Colts pace of play. This price is too high for me for a guy who has historically struggled in this matchup. I expect Jalen Ramsey to shadow Hilton in this game and severely hinder his production this week. You’d be better off looking at Doyle or Marlon Mack if you want exposure to the Indy offense. The best thing to do would be to avoid them altogether in your cash games and maybe sprinkle in some Colts in GPPs instead.
Tyrell Williams (LAC): $6,500 @ OAK
The key number to focus on here is four. The target market share for “The Gazelle” is simply too little to take seriously. He’s had no more than four targets in each of his last four games. With four touchdowns over his last three games, almost all of his 2018 fantasy production has come on those four touchdowns. If we need four times the salary value on a point-per-dollar basis for GPP lineups, you’re in need of 26 points to get there and that’s a point mark that Williams has not yet reached. He did get 25.4 FanDuel points against the Browns a few weeks back, but that was on…you guessed it, just four targets. The Chargers are in an absolute dream matchup this week against the worst team in the league, but there is a good chance both Williams boys (Mike included) end up getting taken right out of the Week 10 action early on as a result of game script and two capable RBs in the fold.
Allen Robinson (CHI): $6,300 vs. DET
At first glance, the matchup is great for Robinson against the Lions 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense allowing plenty of big plays. However, Darius Slay will be the direct matchup for him this weekend and that’s not an easy assignment. Slay was questionable going into last week’s game but had a solid performance, including an interception. The production for Robinson this season has left something to be desired as well with just 11 catches in his past four games played. That’s not a huge surprise considering Mitch Trubisky is his quarterback and he’s had a pretty terrible year by Pro Football Focus metrics. This game also has a very low implied point total of just 44 points and I fully expect a low-scoring affair. With that expectation, tough shadow coverage, a questionable signal caller and not a lot of recent success…there’s a bevy of reasons to fade A-Rob this week.
Rob Gronkowski (NE): $6,900 @ TEN
The price is so appropriate for the player. However, if you removed the name and look at the production this season, why would this player be priced at nearly $7k? It just doesn’t make any sense! Gronk has been limited all season with a balky back, but the price has to come down more than $300 from last week, right? Gronk made a nice sideline grab against the Bills last week, but other than a couple plays, he’s looked like a shell of his former perrenial Pro Bowl self. If I’m paying this much for a Tight End, I’m going to go all the way up and get a stud like Travis Kelce since Zach Ertz isn’t on the main slate. The Titans are lights out against the TE position as well, ranking first in fantasy points allowed to the position with a fantastic, young defense. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Gronk get scratched for this game completely in an effort to get him right for the Pats playoff run.
Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.