Fantasy quarterback can be a tricky proposition for fantasy owners, because there are many quality options that are available until the end of the fantasy draft and it can be confusing to know when is the right time to pull the trigger and draft one. Nobody wants to take their fantasy quarterback too early and sacrifice the depth on the team at the running back and wide receiver positions, but nobody wants to take one too late and have to stream low-quality options for the entire fantasy season.
Here is what I usually do to make sure that I am not left without a quality fantasy quarterback. I identify the two quarterbacks with the lowest ADP that I think will be available after the 12th round. I make sure that I do not leave a fantasy draft without one of those two players. If I find a quarterback in an earlier round who I believe the value is too good to pass up, I draft him and consider myself having won the quarterback position in my fantasy draft. If quarterbacks keep flying off the board before my draft selection and I do not find anyone at the value I want until Round 12, I know I have those two quarterbacks should be in my back pocket. Either way, I go into the regular season with a quarterback or quarterbacks that I think can help me win a fantasy league.
There are two quarterbacks that I think are tremendous values this year. Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has an ADP of 148.0, even though he had 4,298 yards passing and 30 passing touchdowns last year. He has no viable backup behind him and he has started 16 games each of the last four years. He should finish in the Top-15 this year and be a viable streaming quarterback that can help give a fantasy owner a win most weeks. He probably will not be a Top-5 quarterback, but at the very least I can stream him in good matchups while using another quarterback in the weeks I do not want to play Cousins.
The other quarterback I really like is San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He was all the rage in fantasy football last year, to the point that he was on my Do Not Draft List last year. He tore his ACL early in the year and he is now buried in fantasy drafts with an ADP of 151.0. I do not think he will be a Top-10 fantasy quarterback this year, but I think he will have a lot of big games against an easy quarterback schedule and I would be fine streaming him and Cousins together in 2019 if I needed to do that.
Now that we have a floor established, let us look at quarterbacks above those two players that should be avoided in fantasy drafts. I am not recommending avoiding those players, because they will have terrible years, but because their ADP is too high compared to guys like Cousins and Garoppolo that are available at the end of fantasy drafts.
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1) Kansas City Chiefs QB, Patrick Mahomes
He is a terrific player, but he had a lot of things go right for him last year when he threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdown passes. Most players do not have back-to-back 40 touchdown pass seasons, much less 50 touchdown pass seasons. The most passing touchdowns in back-to-back years was Peyton Manning in 2013 having 55 touchdown passes and following that up with 39 touchdown passes in 2014. New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees had 46 touchdown passes in 2011 and 43 more touchdown passes in 2012. He is the only player in NFL history to have back-to-back seasons with more than 40 touchdown passes. Typically players regress back toward normal great numbers following a historic season. That is probably what will happen to Mahomes this year and with an ADP of 26, there just is not much room for him to regress and still be worth that selection. Expect Mahomes to have a big season, but not big enough to justify the 26th selection.
2) Houston Texans QB, Deshaun Watson
I like him as a player and he was ranked fourth among fantasy quarterbacks last year. He also does not have much in the running game to take pressure off their passing game with RB Lamar Miller still being the lead back there. Furthermore, WR DeAndre Hopkins is their only superstar player in the passing game. The rest of the supporting cast is unproven players or injury-prone players. I think Watson will have a great year, but I would not want to use the 51st pick in a fantasy draft to take him when I do not think he will have significantly better production than some of the players taken after him. His lack of a strong supporting cast outside of Hopkins caps his upside to have a monster season.
3) Green Bay Packers QB, Aaron Rodgers
It is the same issue as Watson, love him as a player and I think he will be a very good fantasy option, but just not enough of a quality supporting cast to make we want to use the 57th pick on him. The running game is a little stronger in Green Bay than Houston with RB Aaron Jones, but similar to Houston with Hopkins, they only have one proven wide receiver on the roster in WR Davante Adams. Rodgers is also playing with a new coach for the first time since 2006 and they are implementing a new scheme. I expect him to have good results, but not significantly better than people going much lower than Rodgers in fantasy drafts.
4) Carolina Panthers QB, Cam Newton
Newton has finished 18th, second, and 12th among fantasy quarterbacks the last three years. His shoulder was a mess last season and he is reworking his mechanics to avoid having that be an issue again in 2019. The chance of him being able to play 16 games and not breakdown with injury problems lessens each year. The 89th spot is not a horrible place for him, but Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers is going 112th and he has been 14th, eighth, and 11th ranked fantasy quarterback the last three years. Rivers does not have as much upside as Newton due to Newton’s incredible mobility, but Rivers does not have as much downside due to his great durability. I think Newton is a little overpriced at his current ADP.
5) Arizona Cardinals QB, Kyler Murray
I think Murray has a chance to be a star at the NFL level, but let’s remember what is normal for rookie quarterbacks. Browns QB Baker Mayfield set the NFL record with 27 passing touchdowns in his rookie season last year. Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck set the rookie passing yards record back in 2012 with 4,374 yards passing. The best fantasy points season by a rookie quarterback was Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton tallying 375 fantasy points in 2011. At Murray’s current ADP of 103, he would need to score about 300 fantasy points for him to be worth that selection. I prefer to draft safe players or bargains in fantasy football. A rookie quarterback on the worst offense in the NFL last year is not safe and 300 fantasy points as the floor is not a bargain. To put things in perspective, if Murray scored 300 fantasy points this year, it would be 24 more fantasy points than Luck had in his rookie season back in 2012. Given how bad the Arizona offense was last year and that their new head coach Kliff Kingsbury has not coached an NFL game prior to this year, I am not in love with drafting Murray that high in a fantasy draft.
6) New England Patriots QB, Tom Brady
I will not own him in a single league this year, he is 42-years old and he is coming off a season where the Patriots leaned more on the running game and their defense and less on his big passing numbers. As a NFL quarterback, he is still a great player with his understanding of defenses and his ability to convert third downs and extend drives. Those strengths do not equate to fantasy points. As a fantasy quarterback, he does not have enough production in the passing game or with his legs to warrant being the 15th ranked fantasy quarterback with an ADP of 116.
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB, Jameis Winston
Winston is liked a little more by the experts than he is with his ADP, but either way, I think he is overvalued. Winston has an ECR of 11th, his ADP is the 16th ranked quarterback, and he is the 127th overall player. Nobody is going to blow up their fantasy draft taking Winston with the 127th pick. My issue is that he was the 22nd ranked fantasy quarterback the last two years due to suspensions, injuries, and poor play that led to benching him for the backup quarterback. Even with new head coach Bruce Arians, would I rather use a 10th-12th round pick on Winton or would I rather wait and take Cousins, who has shown he can consistently throw for 4,000 yards and 30 passing touchdowns? My answer is Cousins and I think Winston is ranked ahead of too many good players to justify his current ADP.
8) Baltimore Ravens QB, Lamar Jackson
We are at the portion of the rankings where we are debating 13th round picks, but Jackson would have rushed 250 times last year if the Ravens had used him at the same usage on the ground for the entire season that they used him in the last seven games of the season. I just do not think a quarterback can stay healthy for 16 games running that much and the Los Angeles Chargers showed what a dime defense could do to that offensive scheme. Jackson has some upside if he improved enough as a passer this offseason for the Ravens to run a more traditional NFL offense. Jackson has an ADP of 141, but again it is higher than at least two quarterbacks that I feel much more comfortable rolling the dice with at that part of the draft.
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Derek Lofland is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @DerekLofland.