Week 1 of the fantasy season is always a gift, because we finally get to see how players do on the field, rather than just speculating based on previous years and preseason coach-speak. Week 3 felt a lot like that, because six different quarterbacks made their first start of the season. For four of them, it was the first start of their career. When I was writing my matchup notes last week, I was wary of being repetitive because I kept wanting to write, “he could turn out to be good, but until he proves it, I’m happy to start fantasy defenses against [player].” Now that Week 3 is in the books, we know how they look, and have some idea if they’re really worth targeting going forward.

• Daniel Jones got the start for the Giants, who finally benched Eli Manning. He didn’t throw any interceptions, but did fumble twice, which is actually less concerning because past results are much more predictive for interceptions than for fumbles. Jones was clearly calm in the pocket, but perhaps too calm. Some players, like Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson, are quick to give up on throwing and try to run from pressure. When they do this instead of throwing the ball away, they get sacked when they can’t escape. Jones has the opposite problem – he’s so focused downfield, that he doesn’t always react to pressure in time, either by throwing it away or running. He got sacked five times, but the Buccaneers ended up with only seven fantasy points. This lines up pretty well with my expectations for the Giants going forward: the offense is definitely better (even with Saquon Barkley out) and I don’t expect many turnovers, but there’s still potential for a lot of sacks. The Giants aren’t a team to target every week, like they were with Manning.
• The Dolphins gave Josh Rosen the start and, well, they’re still the Dolphins. Rosen didn’t perform any better than his 2018 campaign that led the Cardinals to draft Kyler Murray, and the Dolphins failed to score a TD. The Dolphins are still one of the tastiest matchups for opposing defenses.
• Mason Rudolph played a good chunk of Week 2 for the Steelers after Ben Roethlisberger tore his UCL, but this was his first start. The offense under Rudolph was perfectly functional – we didn’t get the kind of disaster that we expect from backups. He threw one pick, but was only sacked twice. Like Jones, he wasn’t amazing and we’ll be happy to start above average defenses against him, but the Steelers aren’t an every-week target like Miami.
• Teddy Bridgewater is the most experienced play on this list, and is the Saints’ starter as long as Drew Brees is out. The Saints’ game plan was extremely conservative – all his completions were near the line of scrimmage. Fortunately for Bridgewater, he has the best screen receiver in the league in Alvin Kamara. If this is going to be the Saints’ plan going forward, then there’s very little turnover upside.
• Kyle Allen started for the injured Cam Newton, and he was excellent – certainly better than Newton was in Weeks 1 and 2. The Cardinals made it easy for him though – don’t expect him to do this every week. Still, it’s going to be hard to feel good about starting anyone but the best defenses against him.
• The Jets were reduced to using the third-string Luke Falk, and that went about as well as you’d expect. The team was absolutely terrified of him – he attempted only 22 passes, and was still sacked five times. The Jets are absolutely a team to target if Falk starts again (it’s possible that Darnold could return after the Jets’ Week 4 bye), and honestly are a good target with Darnold anyway.

Of those six, only Falk and Rosen are the type of juicy disasters we want for our fantasy defenses.

Rankings Time

Even with one of our best targets (the Jets) on bye, there are still plenty of good options this week. The ownership numbers below are from Yahoo. If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter.

Notes on the Top Picks

1. LAC @ MIA: It’s a little surprising to see the top three defenses all being on the road, but these teams are bad. Regardless of who’s starting at QB, you’ll use any defense against Miami.
2. SEA @ ARI: Kyler Murray was sacked eight times last week. Eight! That’s an enormous number. The Cardinals pass at the highest rate in the league, and we have no reason to expect that to change. This is great news for fantasy because sacks, interceptions, and a majority of fumbles happen on passing plays. The Cardinals might not be as much of a disaster as the Dolphins, but the way we score fantasy gives their opponents a sky-high ceiling.
3. NE @ BUF: This is starting to look like it might be one of the best defenses Bill Belichick has ever had. Both of the touchdowns the Patriots have allowed this year – fumbled punt return and a pick-six – weren’t wile their defense was on the field. The Patriots’ actual defense has allowed just a single field goal in three games! They are unstoppable and startable against almost anyone, and this week they get the terrible Bills.
4. LAR vs TB: The Buccaneers’ offense looked alive against the Giants last week, but they’ll have a much harder time against Aaron Donald and company in LA. Even if they do put up points, the turnover and sack upside is massive.
5. BAL vs CLE: To the disappointment of absolutely everyone, the Browns offense has been kind of bad this year. Baltimore’s defense is certainly good enough to start against them at home.
6. PIT vs CIN: The Bengals have yet to exceed 20 points this season, and AJ Green is still out. They’re going to have a tough time in Pittsburgh this week.
7. CHI vs MIN: The Vikings are a low-upside offense for opposing defenses, because they run the ball a ton, and Kirk Cousins isn’t liable to take tons of sacks or throw lots of picks, but he’s also not going to score that much. The Vikings aren’t bad, but they’re certainly not good enough to scare you away from using Chicago’s defense.
8. DEN vs JAC: Gardner Minshew is the most entertaining man in football, but his actual football is pedestrian. The Broncos defensive play calling can be pretty suspect, but if they decide to actually use the excellent pass rush duo of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, the opportunity for a big fantasy day is there.
9. HOU vs CAR: Kyle Allen looked great against the Cardinals last week, but I think that says a lot more about the Cardinals’ defense than it does about Allen. He’ll have an actual challenge visiting the Texans this week, who will be a reasonable start.
10. IND vs OAK: After seeming like they might not be terrible against Denver in Week 1, the Raiders have been actually terrible. The Colts should do well as 7-point favorites at home.
11. DAL @ NO: The Cowboys are on a lot of rosters coming off a matchup with the Dolphins, and they’re usable again as road favorites in New Orleans if you don’t want to spend a waiver claim on someone else this week.

Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.