DraftKings NBA Lineup Advice: Friday (11/1)

We start the month of November with an eight-game NBA slate, which is the perfect size in my opinion. There are a lot of studs that we are really going to want to pay up for, but not a lot of obvious value to help us get there. You will have to keep an eye on the news in the late afternoon to find those cheap guys that become available. Hopefully this article gets you off to a nice start!

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Rockets @ Nets

This game is so exciting that I felt like I had to break the typical format of this article. Not only is this the highest Vegas over/under on the slate, it is the highest over/under we have seen so far this year. We have a projected total of 242, which is three more than the previous high of the year which was another Rockets game (239 total against the Pelicans on 10/26, that game finished with 249 points scored). Teams have scored 12.8 more fantasy points than their season average when playing the Nets, and they have scored 19.4 more than their season average when playing the Rockets. This game is so appealing that I felt it needed its own dedicated space.

The obvious place to start is with James Harden (SG – $11,000) and Russell Westbrook (PG – $9,800), who have accounted for 46% of the Rockets points scored and 45% of the fantasy points. Their combined fantasy point output has been 113, 105, 109, and 136. Playing them both together costs $20,800 tonight, so if you are looking for a 6x return on that salary you would be hoping for 125 fantasy points. That is clearly very doable, and this would appear to be their best matchup of the year. It is never easy to fill your other six roster spots with just $4,800 to spend per slot, but locking in the 110+ points with upside for 150 from just two guys is a great way to start your roster.

The other two pieces of the Rockets pie are Clint Capela (C – $7,400) and P.J. Tucker (SF/PF – $4,700). Capela has been solid thus far, averaging 36 Draftkings points with a minimum output of 31. He has done most of his work on rebounds (9 per game) and blocks (2.25 per game), as they’re just are not many shots to go around with Westbrook and Harden present. The Nets were one of the best matchups in the league for big men last year. I do not know if Capela has huge upside as it would be tough to see him scoring a big amount of points, but he has a nice floor at this price if you want some cheaper exposure to this game. Tucker has played 38, 38, 33, and 33 minutes so far this year and has been chipping in a little bit in every category. He has averaged 5.5 three-point attempts, 15 points, two assists, 1.5 steals, 6.5 rebounds, and 0.5 blocks per game. By that, admittedly small, sample of data we would judge Tucker as close to a $6,000 player but he sits at just $4,700. He is one of my favorite values on the slate.

On the Nets side things are a little tougher. Kyrie Irving (PG – $9,000) has one of the highest shares of team fantasy points in the league, scoring 24% of the Nets Draftkings points so far this year. He has a 29% share of their points scored, 27% of their field goal attempts, and 28% of their assists. He is even averaging six rebounds a game which we did not see from him as a Celtic. The $9,000 price tag on him seems too low for his role, and he is a very strong play tonight. Pairing him with one of Russ/Harden instead of playing those two together opens your lineup up to more ceiling, but lowers your floor a bit too since it will be tough for Kyrie to have a really big game if he has one of his somewhat awful shooting performances.

After Kyrie the fantasy points have been widely distributed. Caris LeVert (SG/SF – $6,000) and Spencer Dinwiddie (PG/SG – $5,300) both have 13% shares of the fantasy points, and then Jarrett Allen (PF/C – $5,000), Taurean Prince (SF/PF – $4,900), DeAndre Jordan (C – $4,800), and Joe Harris (SG/SF – $4,700) have right around 10% shares. You are basically guessing when playing these guys, but they are priced low enough to still consider. LeVert has the steadiest minutes, playing 33+ minutes in three of his four games, but Dinwiddie has been the best FPPM contributor at 1.17 (this probably has to do with him playing the bulk of his minutes without Kyrie on the court).

Jordan and Allen have been playing a much more even minutes split since Allen played 20 more minutes than Jordan on opening night, and Jordan played one more minute than Allen in their last game (although neither played even 23 minutes). You could play them both for $9,800 and guarantee yourself 45+ minutes. They both average just under one fantasy point per minute, and with the great matchup we can reasonably project them for 1.2 FPPM, which gives us a base projection of 54 fantasy points, which is solid enough at the price. This is even more viable with Allen having PF eligibility so you would not have to use your UTIL spot while playing both of these guys.

All-in-all I really like the Harden/Westbrook combination and P.J. Tucker. I also like the idea of going Westbrook/Irving to save a little money off of Harden, and then taking a stab at one of LeVert or Dinwiddie. All of these guys are firmly in play in this incredibly fantasy-friendly game environment.

For the rest of the slate we will get back into our usual format.

Guards

D’Angelo Russell (PG/SG – GSW): $8,900 vs. Spurs
I am interested to see how owned Russell is here as he is obviously in for a major role boost with Curry out, but the Warriors are in such disarray that I am sure some people would be hesitant to pay this big price tag. Russell should lead the Warriors in shot attempts in this game by a decent margin and has averaged a solid 0.96 FPPM even while playing alongside Curry. He had some massive games last year as the Nets top offensive option and has a big ceiling here. The Spurs have not been the defensive stalwart we have seen in the past, so this is not a matchup to necessarily avoid. Paying this much is putting a lot of faith in the Warriors not having a complete and total dud of a game, but the upside and usage is there to justify it.

DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF – SAS): $7,200 @ Warriors
The league average team Draftkings points scored per game currently sits 226. The Warriors have allowed 241, 257, 264, and 268 fantasy points in their four games. The Spurs are getting a major boost here, and DeRozan is one of two Spurs we can actually feel good about projecting for 30+ minutes. This is the Spurs first back-to-back of the year and there is a real blowout risk here with the Warriors being without Steph Curry, but if this game stays somewhat close and DeRozan plays 30+ minutes again, I think he will smash at this price. On the year, DeRozan has taken 20% of the Spurs shots (leads the team), and scored 15% of their fantasy points (second behind Dejounte Murray). He has been getting his fantasy points mainly from points scored, but has chipped in 14 rebounds over his last two games, so he at least offers the possibility of the double-double. I am not sure DeRozan has the huge ceiling you want in tournaments, but this is a very strong cash play.

Mike Conley (PG – UTA): $6,700 @ Kings
The Kings are the third-worst defense by my new opponent-adjusted defensive metric, adding 17 more fantasy points per game to opponents on average. They had eight real-life points and 3.5 assists. Conley’s price was in a free-fall until he put up his first good game of the year on Wednesday scoring 43 DK points in 32 minutes. He finally figured out his shot in that game and made 11 of his 17 attempts, scoring 29 points. Prior to that game, he has made just 9 shots on 45 attempts (20%), so it was a rough start to his Jazz career to say the least. Conley should see another 15+ shot attempts here and is in line to benefit in the assists category because of this matchup as well. Conley has a huge ceiling at this price tag, and I think he offers a better floor than what you might think looking at his game logs.

Derrick Rose (PG/SG – DET): $5,700 @ Bulls
Rose had his night cut short on Wednesday by injury, playing just 21 minutes in that game. In those 21 minutes, he scored 31.5 fantasy points on 12 shots and dished out 10 assists. He has averaged 1.28 fantasy points per minute in this Blake Griffin-less Pistons offense, and he is probable to play tonight. Rose has beaten this price tag in four of his five games, and the Bulls have been bad defensively this year, adding 17 fantasy points to their opponent’s average. Rose is one of the highest usage players in the league and is criminally under-priced tonight.

Marcus Smart (PG/SG – BOS): $4,900 vs. Knicks
This is dependent on Jaylen Brown missing, and he currently is listed as questionable. Smart played a season-high in minutes on Wednesday with Brown out of the lineup, scoring 37.5 fantasy points. That came on an uncharacteristic 11 three-point attempts (and even more uncharacteristically he made five of them), but he also chipped in six assists and four rebounds which were expected totals. The price came up $400 after that performance, and I would not expect another shooting performance like that Wednesday game, but he offers a strong floor of points in this matchup with the Knicks if Brown misses.

Frank Ntilikina: (PG/SG – NYK): $3,200 @ Celtics
The Knicks are a mess in their backcourt with Dennis Smith and Elfrid Payton both missing time to injury. This opened the door for Ntilikina to play 29 minutes on Wednesday. He did not do a ton with those minutes, scoring just 18.5 Draftkings points on eight field-goal attempts while contributing four assists and four rebounds, but a point guard playing 30 minutes at near-minimum salary is hard to ignore. We have seen some splash games from Frank in his short career, so there is some ceiling to this play. The Celtics are not a fun matchup as teams have scored an average of 17 fewer fantasy points per game while playing the Celtics against their average, but we desperately need some cheap plays tonight and Ntilikina is one of the few that stand out tonight.

Forwards / Centers

Anthony Davis (PF/C – LAL): $10,600 @ Mavericks
The Rockets/Nets game is the place to go for studs tonight, but Davis could make a nice leverage play in tournaments here. AD showed that his ceiling is still in tact earlier this week with a 40 point, 20 rebound game against the Grizzlies. He has a 1.75 fantasy point per minute rate with the Lakers and his salary is still under $11,000. The matchup is just fine in Dallas, and Davis has every bit of the ceiling of Harden/Westbrook/Irving and is likely to have less ownership on him.

Andre Drummond (C – DET): $9,500 @ Bulls
Teams have grabbed six rebounds and 16 fantasy points more than their average when playing the Bulls this year, so this is an attractive spot for Drummond. The price is tough to get to as Drummond is on his way to being a $10,000 player until Griffin returns, but for $1,100 less than Davis, Drummond may be the best expensive center option on the slate. He has averaged 17.5 rebounds per game and has been taking a ton of shots as well (14.4 field goal attempts per game). A 30-20 game is very much within the range of outcomes here and I would not expect a ton of ownership to be on Drummond.

Rudy Gobert (C – UTA): $7,800 @ Kings
Through four games, the big man has not been the same solid consistent source of fantasy points that we have known him to be in the past. His price has fallen $500 since the beginning of the year. The shot attempts are down (seven, four, three, and eight are his running totals) with Mike Conley now on the team. Despite all of that, I like Gobert tonight against this bad Kings defense. These two teams played last Saturday and Gobert had a very disappointing game with just 16.5 Draftkings points, but he played only 25 minutes in that game and had an uncharacteristically low rebounding rate, grabbing just six rebounds. This is a super spot to buy low on Gobert at probable low ownership. He has a very high floor and is very, very likely to get the double-double bonus tonight. If he has a game where his shot attempts tick up into double digits he is going to smash this price tag.

LaMarcus Aldridge (PF/C – SAS): $7,100 @ Warriors
We talked about how awesome this matchup is for the Spurs in the DeRozan paragraph, so go check that out if you missed it. My projections have the Spurs being the top fantasy point scoring team on the board tonight (yes, even more than the Rockets). The same minutes risk that DeRozan has (with the back-to-back and blowout potential) applies to Aldridge, but I do think LMA is one of the highest price considered ceiling plays on the slate. He has played 33-36 minutes in all four games this year, has averaged 14 shot attempts per game while adding seven rebounds, four assists, and an awesome four blocks per game. He has a 60 point ceiling here and I would still be interested in him if he was $8,500. Great spot for Aldridge.

Christian Wood (PF/C – DET): $3,900 @ Bulls
Markieff Morris is questionable for this game, and him sitting out would make Wood the best value on the slate. Wood has averaged 0.8 fantasy points per minute this year and has shown some huge ceiling with a 19 point, 12 rebound performance in 21 minutes against the Pacers earlier this year. I think he becomes a little more attractive if he is not starting, as it would probably be better for his fantasy numbers to not be on the floor with Drummond all night. You do not want to play Wood if Morris is in as he has only reached 20 minutes once in four games this year and has only put up one really useful fantasy score, but if Morris is out, lock him in.

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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @JonPgh.