Game-By-Game Projections: Josh Allen (2020 Fantasy Football)
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It’s a crucial Year 3 for up-and-comer Josh Allen, as the Bills look to take control of the AFC East now that Tom Brady has taken his talents to Tampa Bay. The big-armed Allen saw marked improvements in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, interception percentage and quarterback rating in 2019, but the question on everyone’s mind is: how will he follow it up? Will Allen continue his upward trajectory or fall back to earth in 2020? Let’s go game-by-game to find out!
Week 1: vs. Jets
Allen and the Bills get a divisional home opener against a Jets squad still trying to find its identity but chomping at the bit with young talent on the defensive end of the ball. I don’t think Allen comes out of the gate hot, but he does enough to give Buffalo its first win in the post-Brady era of the AFC East. A solid, yet unremarkable game is on tap for the Wyoming gunslinger in the first game of 2020, though a rushing scores helps elevate his stats here.
Predicted stat line: 206 pass yards, 1 pass TDs, 1 interceptions; 29 rush yards, 1 rush TDs (19.1 fantasy points)
Week 2: @ Dolphins
Allen shredded Miami last season, but I don’t think he’ll have quite the impact against them in 2020 as he did a year ago. Miami made some quality additions in the offseason, signing Byron Jones to play alongside Xavien Howard in the secondary and bolstering the defensive line with the likes of Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah. Oh, and don’t forget Kyle Van Noy. The new-look Dolphins defense may not be completely gelled by Week 2, but this is a much better unit.
Predicted stat line: 199 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 1 interceptions; 19 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (15.9 fantasy points)
Week 3: vs. Rams
A home matchup against the Rams should put Allen in a nice spot in Week 3. The Rams defense features two superstars in Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Doanld, though this defense isn’t as loaded as it’s been in the past. The losses of Cory Littleton, Nickell Robey-Coleman, and Dante Fowler will leave a few holes, and Los Angeles should only be a middle-of-the pack defensive unit. With Buffalo looking to keep up in scoring, I think Allen has a big passing game and scores twice.
Predicted stat line: 252 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 1 interceptions; 33 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (19.4 fantasy points)
Week 4: @ Raiders
The Raiders defense gave up plenty of big plays last season, and while there should be some improvement in 2020, Allen should be able to take advantage of a friendly matchup for his second consecutive strong performance. Expect Allen to toss two touchdowns while running in another one as the Bills pick up the win.
Predicted stat line: 246 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 28 rush yards, 1 rush TDs (26.6 fantasy points)
Week 5: @ Titans
Tennessee’s defense is only slightly above average, but this game should have all the trappings of a low-scoring defensive contest. Buffalo’s secondary should be able to contend with Tennessee’s wideouts, while the Titans’ offensive line certainly has some question marks heading into the season. In a game that Buffalo wins, Allen takes the top off the defense for a long touchdown to Stefon Diggs but is otherwise quiet as Devin Singletary leads the charge.
Predicted stat line: 195 pass yards, 1 pass TDs, 1 interceptions; 17 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (11.5 fantasy points)
Week 6: vs. Chiefs
A home matchup with the reigning world champs is the perfect stage for Allen’s coming out party. Buffalo’s defense does its part to slow down Patrick Mahomes and Co., but Allen keeps pace with the Chiefs’ dynamic offense. The third-year Wyoming man throws for over 300 yards in a game for the first time in his career as the Bills pull the upset and take a ‘W.’
Predicted stat line: 317 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 1 interceptions; 29 rush yards, 1 rush TDs (27.6 fantasy points)
Week 7: @ Jets
Week 7 looks like a let-down game for Allen and Co. Riding high off of a huge victory against the Chiefs, the Bills get into an ugly fistfight with Gang Green and come away with a black eye. This one won’t be pretty, and New York’s solid defense puts the clamps down on Buffalo.
Predicted stat line: 181 pass yards, 1 pass TDs, 1 interceptions; 22 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (11.4 fantasy points)
Week 8: vs. Patriots
Allen gets his first crack at the new-look Patriots in Week 8, and he’ll have to contend with a team hanging its hat on defense in 2020. I’m not convinced New England will field a competent offense this season, and playing against a nasty Bills defense on the road could be bad news for Jarrett Stidham and the patchwork crew of passcatchers Bill Belichick has fielded. Defense wins the day here, but Allen still gets it done with two scores.
Predicted stat line: 178 pass yards, 1 pass TDs, x interceptions; 34 rush yards, 1 rush TDs (20.5 fantasy points)
Week 9: vs. Seahawks
Surprisingly, the Seahawks allowed the fourth most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks in 2019. A strong improvement doesn’t seem likely in 2020, with the team set to lose Ja’Deveon Clowney and some questions outside of the secondary. I think Allen has a modest day passing but rips off a few big gainers for a strong rushing performance to go with two touchdowns.
Predicted stat line: 210 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 61 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (22.5 fantasy points)
Week 10: @ Cardinals
Arizona was a sieve for yards last season, making the defense a perfect fantasy target for players facing it. This year’s iteration should see improvement thanks to the addition of Isaiah Simmons and Patrick Peterson sans suspension. Still, the improvements won’t be enough to make the defense middle-of-the-road, so I’m expecting Allen to come out firing. Buffalo’s strong defense gets a wake-up call from Kliff Kingsbury’s spread offense, featuring DeAndre Hopkins, Kenyan Drake, and Kyler Murray. Allen duels Murray in a shootout, and Arizona steals one in the desert.
Predicted stat line: 271 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 36 rush yards, 1 rush TDs (28.4 fantasy points)
Week 11: BYE
Week 12: vs. Chargers
Allen comes off the bye to face Los Angeles at home in what should be a very winnable game for Buffalo. At this point in the season, we may be watching Justin Herbert running the offense, but there’s a chance Tyrod Taylor is still at the helm to face his former team. Either way, I think the Bills take care of business on the defensive end, and Allen tosses a pair of touchdowns to Devin Singletary rather than airing it out against the elite secondary of Los Angeles.
Predicted stat line: 218 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 1 interceptions; 24 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (17.1 fantasy points)
Week 13: @ 49ers
Despite its well-earned reputation as a solid defense in 2019, San Francisco was one of the most generous teams in the league to opposing rushing quarterbacks. Travelling to the Bay to face the defending NFC champs will be no small task, and I think Allen struggles in this one through the air. Buffalo has a tough time moving the ball for the most part, but Allen gets it done on the ground to redeem his fantasy value in Week 13.
Predicted stat line: 182 pass yards, 0 pass TDs, 2 interceptions; 51 rush yards, 1 rush TDs (14.4 fantasy points)
Week 14: vs. Steelers
Buffalo faces stiff competition in back-to-back weeks, but Allen maintains his poise at home in the important AFC showdown and throws for two touchdowns in a big win over Big Ben and the Steelers. It’s a tough matchup, but Allen’s ability to scramble and extend plays with his feet gives him the tools needed to beat this defense. This one will be another feather in the cap of the maturing signal-caller.
Predicted stat line: 229 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 1 interceptions; 31 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (18.3 fantasy points)
Week 15: @ Broncos
Denver’s defense looks strong heading into 2020. John Elway added Jurrell Casey and A.J. Bouye, and Bradley Chubb should be full-go this season. I think Allen has a few Mile High miscues in Week 15, leading to a pair of picks and a loss.
Predicted stat line: 212 pass yards, 1 pass TDs, 2 interceptions; 26 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (13.1 fantasy points)
Week 16: @ Patriots
Allen tangles with New England for the second time this season, but this time it’s in Foxborough. I think Buffalo completes the season sweep here, but Allen – playing in hostile territory for the second straight week – throws another pick. The Bills flex some muscle with the victory, and the Patriots fall to 5-10.
Predicted stat line: 194 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 1 interceptions; 18 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (15.6 fantasy points)
Week 17: vs. Dolphins
Buffalo has a lot on the line in Week 17 and makes it a point to go all out. With the No. 3 seed up for grabs, Allen takes over in Miami and roasts the ‘Fins defense for a trio of scores, a healthy passing line and a rushing score for good measure. Buffalo takes the win and captures the No. 3 seed in the AFC Playoffs much to the delight of the home crowd and Bills Mafia.
Predicted stat line: 265 pass yards, 3 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 23 rush yards, 1 rush TDs (30.9 fantasy points)
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The big-armed quarterback has a full arsenal of explosive playmakers and reliable targets at his disposal. The addition of Stefon Diggs gives Allen another burner to get the ball to, alongside John Brown and Robert Foster. Cole Beasley‘s reliable slot presence paired with two big tight ends in Tommy Sweeny and Dawson Knox provide Allen an outlet over the middle of the field, while Devin Singletary‘s ability as a receiver out of the backfield adds another layer to Allen’s potential success. That strong array of weapons is sure to keep opposing defenses honest and give Allen a little more running room when he rolls out of the pocket. It’s a prove-it year for the third-year quarterback, who has the AFC East open for the taking. Allen will see a significant bump in touchdowns, but he’ll also tack on a few additional interceptions as he airs it out a bit more with a gunslinger’s mentality. A career-year is in the works, and a top-5 finish at his position should be as well.
2019 stats: 3,089 passing yards, 20 pass TDs, 9 INTs, 510 rushing yards, 9 rush TDs
2020 projection: 3,555 passing yards, 26 pass TDs, 12 INTs, 481 rush yards, 7 rush TDs