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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy: Wednesday (12/23)

Dec 23, 2020

SGA is the go-to guy in OKC now.

Opening Night was slightly disappointing with Golden State playing so poorly but there’s no way this slate will be a letdown. We have 13 games and 26 teams in action, in what will be one of the biggest slates of the year. That gives us a gigantic player pool and it was hard to whittle down with so many great options available. That’s what we’re going to try to do here though, making cases for which studs to use and what values to fill around them!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Luka Doncic (DAL) at PHX $10,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) at HOU $7,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Killian Hayes (DET) at MIN $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 

  • Doncic is one of the best plays on the board and we’ll discuss that more thoroughly later.
  • SGA is the go-to guy in OKC now and it’s just a matter of time before his price gets to $9,000.
  • Hayes looks like the starting point guard in Detroit and if he plays 25-plus minutes in that role, he’s a great value against a bad Minnesota defense.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James Harden (HOU) vs. OKC $10,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Josh Richardson (DAL) at PHX. $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Delon Wright (DET) ar MIN $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Harden is the most expensive player on the slate and rightfully so. We’ll talk about him later!
  • Richardson looked great in the preseason and he’s an important piece for Dallas with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined.
  • Wright looks like a starter in Detroit and he could end up being a stat-stuffer for this weak roster.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Gordon Hayward (CHA) at CLE $6,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA) at POR $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL) vs. PHX $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Hayward signed a big contract in Charlotte and looks likely to be the primary play-maker for this bad team. That’s great news against a Cleveland team that’s equally as poor.
  • Bogdanovic was a $6,000 player for most of last season and a hand injury has lowered his price way too much.
  • DFS was a double-double machine in the bubble and should continue to play 30 minutes with KP sidelined.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) at BOS $10,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Al Horford (OKC) at HOU $6,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Lauri Markkanen (ATL) vs. ATL $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 

  • Giannis always kills the Celtics and we’ll discuss that in the studs section.
  • Horford struggled coming off the bench for Philly but he’s the go-to guy in the OKC frontcourt. Look for him to return to his Boston form which was a $7K player.
  • Markkanen had a terrible season last year but he’s too good to be below $5K. We also like the matchup against a bad Hawks defense.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bam Adebayo (MIA) at ORL $7,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Wendell Carter Jr. (CHI) vs. ATL $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Richaun Holmes (SAC) at DEN $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 

  • Bam broke out for Miami last season and should be at least $1,000 more.
  • Carter is going to start at center for the Bulls and his double-double potential makes him a great value at just $4,400.
  • This Holmes price tag is one of the most baffling on the slate. He’s going to start for the Kings and play 25 minutes which is all you can ask for after averaging 28 DK points per game last year. The Hassan Whiteside addition makes him a bit risky but not at $4,200.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • James Harden, HOU ($10,400): Harden led all players in fantasy points last season and is probably too cheap at $10,400. That doesn’t even take into consideration that he faces the Thunder, who could be one of the worst defenses in the west.
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($10,200): Giannis averaged nearly 65 DraftKings points per game against Boston last season and always plays hungry against them.
  • Luka Doncic, DAL ($10,000): Doncic averaged 57.6 DK points per game last season and could have success against a subpar Suns defense.
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC ($7,500): With CP3 out of town, this is SGA’s show. That means a 30 percent usage rate looks likely and he should have no problem producing against a lackluster Rockets defense.
  • Bam Adebayo, MIA ($7,300): This price is just too cheap. Adebayo essentially had a 40-point floor last season and that alone makes him a fantastic value.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Russell Westbrook, WAS ($9,300): It’s just hard to trust Westbrook in his debut for a new team. One has to believe Bradley Beal will handle a lot of the offense and we certainly don’t like that Westbrook has to face an elite Philadelphia defense as well. Let’s see what his role looks like before we use him at $9,300.
  • Brandon Ingram, NOP ($8,600): This price just seems too high. Not only is Eric Bledsoe now in town, Zion Williamson will also likely see a bigger workload too. It’s also worrisome that he has to face a stingy Toronto defense as well.
  • Ja Morant, MEM ($8,400): All of the players in this price range averaged over 40 DK points per game last season but Morant barely reached 35 fantasy points per outing. That makes him a tough sell against Dejounte Murray, especially with the Spurs playing so slow.
  • Jimmy Butler, MIA ($7,700): There’s a lot of talk around Butler playing less this season and that’s even more discouraging when you consider all of the developing ball-handlers on this team. Facing a slow Orlando team makes it even more difficult to trust him
  • Blake Griffin, DET ($7,200): Griffin hasn’t been worth $7,200 in years and it’s a wonder why he’s so expensive. There are at least 20 players below him in price who I’d rather use.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.