Top FanDuel NFL DFS Upside Picks: Week 13 (2020)
Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups.
Week 12 was a complete boom-or-bust week on Ball Street. For every David Montgomery (overall RB6, 22.8 FanDuel points), there was an Antonio Brown (WR89, 2.1). With every Dallas Goedert (TE1, 17.0) came a Jalen Reagor (WR82, 2.6). And for every Tom Brady (QB5, 23.7) there was a Derek Carr (QB35, 1.6). No, it was not a smooth ride. But, I’ll take the consolation prize of a Mid-Cap play finishing as the TE1 and a Penny Stock pick scoring among the top six running backs. While I may have only had a few hits among my 12 plays, it’s encouraging to see those hits landing among the top options at their positions. Here’s to more of that in Week 13.
Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 13 DFS lineups.
Before we dive in, let me break down the lingo we use on “Ball Street.” First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 13.
Each position group is broken down as follows:
- Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag
- Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks
- Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer
- *Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players
Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 13 and beyond!
Blue Chip: Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. Denver ($9,000) – Fantasy football’s overall QB2 has caught fire as of late, averaging 30 FanDuel points over his last four games. In Week 13, Vegas is projecting the Chiefs to score a league-leading 32.5 points against a middling Broncos defense.
Mid-Cap: Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. New England ($7,900) – While Herbert put up a disappointing 17.44 FanDuel points in Week 12, he still threw for over 300 passing yards and a touchdown. 10 games worth of data tell me that he’s due for a bounce-back performance against the Patriots.
Penny Stock: Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs. Jacksonville ($7,300) – Given that Adam Thielen is back in the Vikings’ lineup, what’s not to like? With an elite wide receiver tandem and a cushy matchup with the Jaguars, the only thing holding Cousins back is a potentially run-heavy game script.
Blue Chip: Derrick Henry (TEN) vs. Cleveland ($10,000) – Notching his second 37+ point game of the season in Week 12, Derrick Henry reminded the fantasy world that as the weather grows colder, he grows stronger. If the Colts’ run defense couldn’t stop him, I don’t see the Browns faring any better.
Mid-Cap: *Austin Ekeler (LAC) vs. New England ($7,000) – Fresh off a sixteen target performance in Week 12, Ekeler is a no-brainer upside play at his current price tag. With the Patriots’ defense likely focusing their efforts on Keenan Allen, Ekeler is set up for another huge day through the air. *Ekeler is this week’s Cash Cow. Get him in your lineups!
Penny Stock: David Montgomery (CHI) vs. Detroit ($6,200) – Montgomery feels like my perennial Penny Stock play, so it was nice to see my unwavering faith in him pay off last week. Regardless, FanDuel refuses to price him accordingly against a Lions’ defense that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Blue Chip: Tyreek Hill (KC) vs. Denver ($8,600) – Hill put up an other-worldly 51.4 points last week and has failed to score below 20 points in each of his last four games. With a ceiling is as high as any wideout’s, the Mahomes-Hill stack is both expensive and logical in Week 13.
Mid-Cap: Diontae Johnson (PIT) vs. Washington ($6,800) – Johnson is averaging a whopping 12 targets per full game played this season, making him a weekly blowup candidate. Despite a daunting matchup with the Football Team, I’ll take the talent and the opportunity at this price all day.
Penny Stock: Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) vs. Houston ($5,600) – Despite catching just two passes in Week 12, the rookie paced Indianapolis’ wide receivers with nine targets. He’s seen fewer than seven targets just once over the last four games. In Week 13, he gets a Texans secondary that will be without CB Bradley Roby in a matchup that sports a solid 51-point over/under.
Blue Chip: Travis Kelce (KC) vs. Denver ($8,000) – Truthfully, Kelce is the sole “Blue Chip” label – worthy upside play in Week 13. With three 100-yard outings over his last four games, he has the TE1 finish in his back pocket against the Broncos.
Mid-Cap: Noah Fant (DEN) vs. Kansas City ($5,700) – Due to a plethora of injuries, Fant has been rather quiet for a majority of the 2020 season. But with a clean bill of health and a quarterback under center entering Week 13, I like Fant to return in a big way as the Broncos will be forced into a pass-heavy game script against the Chiefs.
Penny Stock: Jordan Reed (SF) vs. Buffalo ($5,000) – With six targets to his name in back to back weeks, Reed is seeing plenty of looks in San Francisco’s offense. In Week 13, he has the potential to turn those targets into FanDuel points against a Bills defense that has given up the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.
Ball Street’s Week 13 All-Upside Lineup
QB – Kirk Cousins, $7,300
RB – Derrick Henry, $10,000
RB – Austin Ekeler, $7,000
WR – Tyreek Hill, $8,600
WR – Diontae Johnson, $6,800
WR – Michael Pittman, $5,600
TE – Jordan Reed, $5,000
FLEX – David Montgomery, $6,200
DEF – Detroit, $3,500
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.