DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Super Bowl LV (2021)
The Super Bowl is finally upon us! After a difficult regular season, which featured a litany of delays due to the coronavirus, I’m just thankful that we’ve gotten this far. For those of us capping off the year with some DFS, here are my value plays for next Sunday’s big game.
If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. Given the showdown format, I’ve modified my article structure to feature two high-end flexes that offer value at the MVP slot and three low-end flexes that are strong options to fill out your roster.
Last Week’s Picks
Tom Brady (TB): 20.1 points (3.29x)
Rob Gronkowski (TB): 3.9 points (1.11x)
Last week was a mixed bag. We got the QB4 (still hit value), RB3, RB8, WR1(!), WR4, and TE5, and while I’m proud of my performance at receiver, I could’ve done better at running back and tight end. I don’t feel that bad because there weren’t many points to go around at running back anyway, but featuring Gronk over Cameron Brate was a mistake. Oh well. Let’s see if I can bring my momentum at wide receiver into the Super Bowl.
Tyreek Hill (KC): $10,400 at TB ($15,600 MVP)
Why am I featuring the slate’s priciest wide receiver in a value plays column? Well, he did hit value against this price point the last time he played Tampa Bay. He scored a slate-winning 60.9 DK points against them back in Week 12, which would’ve been good for 3.9x value at his MVP price. He did so by simply outrunning his defenders. The Bucs have routinely given up big plays to wideouts downfield during the playoffs (see: Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s 50-yard touchdown, Tre’Quan Smith’s 56-yard touchdown, and Cam Sims’ 36-yard reception), and Hill should toast their secondary again on Super Bowl Sunday.
Tom Brady (TB): $10,000 vs. KC ($15,000 MVP)
Brady gets a spot somewhat by default. He’s the cheaper of the slate’s two quarterbacks, and while he may not hit 3x value in your MVP slot, he offers some value based on my anticipated game script. He had to rally Tampa Bay late when these two teams met in Week 12, and he finished with 26.7 DK points in the matchup. If the Buccaneers find themselves playing from behind early, you can expect tons of passing attempts for Brady, which gives him a chance to hit value here. I don’t love this pick, but taking Brady is a good way to ensure that you get some points for every big play made by a Tampa Bay receiver — it’s always a challenge to predict who among Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson will go off.
Darrel Williams (KC): $5,200 at TB
Williams finished as the RB2 last week, and he led Kansas City’s backfield in almost every stat. He earned the most rushing yards (52), got the most carries (13), earned more yards per carry (4.0), and tied with Clyde Edwards-Helaire in rushing touchdowns (1). The Buccaneers have a rock-solid defensive front, and they gave up the sixth-fewest DKPPG to running backs in the regular season (20.7), but Williams’ lead role makes him a decent option anyway. As long as Andy Reid continues to use him as he did last week, Williams will offer a steady floor with touchdown upside, and that’s a fantastic value at this price.
Sammy Watkins (KC): $4,200 at TB
We haven’t seen Watkins play since Week 16. However, the Kansas City Chiefs expect to get him back for the Super Bowl, and I’m excited about his return. Watkins should easily out-produce Mecole Hardman ($5,600), as the sophomore wideout doesn’t play on most of Kansas City’s snaps, and he has a proven playoff track record. He caught five passes for 98 yards in last year’s Super Bowl, and he averaged 96 yards and per game across Kansas City’s three postseason matchups. He could easily pop off against a Tampa Bay secondary that allowed Tyreek Hill to go off for 269 yards against them in Week 12.
Scotty Miller (TB): $3,400 vs. KC
I have mixed feelings about using Miller. On the one hand, Antonio Brown could return, and Miller hasn’t caught more than three passes in a game since Week 7. On the other hand, Miller has earned Tom Brady’s trust, and he has slate-winning speed. Miller ran a 4.44-second 40-yard dash, and we saw his speed on full display last week when he roasted Kevin King. He only needs to make one big scoring play to hit value at this price, and he’s worth considering as a flier for Sunday’s big game. That said, if Brown is healthy enough to play, you should probably avoid Miller for this much; Tyler Johnson ($1,200) would be the smarter contrarian pivot.
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