DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (4/4)
Happy Easter! If you’re done stuffing your face with discount holiday chocolate, we have an interesting four-game NBA DFS slate on tap tonight at DraftKings.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Tonight’s slight is, uh, interesting, to say the least. No game has a total above 230 per the BettingPros consensus odds. That said, three games have totals above 220: MEM/PHI (226.5), GSW/ATL (226.5), and NOR/HOU (222.5). The final game, ORL/DEN, sits below that mark (213.5). The spread (Nuggets -16.5) suggests a blowout, too, so don’t expect to see many players from that game below.
On the injury front, several teams could be without multiple starters. The Pelicans have listed Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson as questionable; none have played in New Orleans’ last two outings. The 76ers may opt to rest Joel Embiid in the second half of their back-to-back. Also, the Hawks have listed Trae Young as questionable, and both De’Andre Hunter and John Collins remain out. The Rockets are unlikely to get John Wall back, and Eric Gordon should remain on the shelf for another week or so. Oh, and the Magic have included almost their entire roster on the injury report.
Below is a list of the top-8 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary, ranked in order of how much they’ll cost you.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NOR) $7,200
Even if the Pelicans get Lonzo Ball back tonight, the Pelicans will remain without Josh Hart, leaving space for NAW within their rotation. The second-year player has filled Ball’s shoes with consistency, and he has hit 5x value against this price in two of his last five outings. That includes a 49-DK point showing against the Magic. He could have another ceiling game against the Rockets’ vulnerable defense, which ranks second-worst over the last three games.
Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU) $6,900
I don’t expect Houston to get John Wall back for this one, and that’ll leave KPJ in a high-usage role. He flashed massive upside when he first took the court for the Rockets, and while this price is a little bit high for the talented guard, the Pelicans have struggled against opposing backcourts all season. They surrender the fourth-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to point guards.
Will Barton (DEN) $5,700
I said I wouldn’t target many Nuggets, but I’ll make an exception for Barton. He is coming off a 31.8-DK point showing against the Clippers (good for 5.8x value), and the Magic don’t pose much of a threat defensively. You just have to hope that Denver will leave him out there longer than some of their other starters.
Steven Adams (NOR) $5,300
If Williamson and Ingram remain out, Adams is by far the best interior threat in New Orleans. However, taking him isn’t without risk. He posted only 24 DK points against the Magic on Apr. 1 (4.5x value), but his matchup against the Rockets is cause for optimism — Houston allows the fifth-most DKPPG to centers.
Kevin Huerter (ATL) $5,000
Huerter has not looked good recently. He has posted fewer than 20 DK points in six of his last eight games, and it took an injury to Trae Young for him to clear that threshold for the second time. With Young still banged-up, Huerter offers enough value to target at this price. He went for 29.8 DK points (5.9x value) when Young missed Friday’s game.
Danuel House Jr. (HOU) $4,600
House is a fantastic value target at DraftKings tonight. He is my favorite sub-$6K play for one key reason: made threes. The Pelicans allow the most per game (15), and House has shot .368 from deep throughout his career. He’ll see some extra run with the depleted state of Houston’s roster, too. House is averaging 11.5 points, 4.5 assists, six rebounds, and two steals per game against the Pelicans through 31 minutes per game.
Mo Bamba (ORL) $4,600
Bamba got pulled from Saturday’s game due to a non-COVID illness. However, the Magic held Khem Birch out of yesterday’s game with an illness, and Bamba could see some extra usage due to the depleted nature of Orlando’s roster — especially if the Magic go down early.
Avery Bradley (HOU) $3,700
I like Bradley for the same reason I like House. Bradley is .364 from deep in his career, and the 30-year-old has seen his minutes increase since arriving in Houston. He just posted 15 points, three assists, and six rebounds with a pair of made three against the Celtics, and he could easily surpass 5x value if the Rockets allow him to play a similar role tonight.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Stephen Curry (GSW) $9,800: I didn’t feature any Warriors in the values section, but I’m a big fan of taking Curry on this slate. With or without Young, the Hawks should keep this game competitive, and that will force Curry to help the Warriors keep up. The Hawks have struggled against opposing guards, and Curry has hit 5x value against this price in his last two outings.
- Christian Wood (HOU) $8,600: I know I hyped up Houston’s backcourt because of New Orleans’ awful perimeter defense, but you may want to pair one (or two) of the value plays above with Wood if both Williamson and Ingram sit. Their absences would pave a way to the basket for Wood to exploit.
- Tobias Harris (PHI) $8,400: I expect Embiid to either sit or play fewer minutes tonight. That will thrust Tobias Harris into a high-volume role. Harris has gone for 5x value against this price in three of his last four games with 30-plus minutes, and he should easily hit that threshold if Embiid sits.
Notable Players to Fade
- Joel Embiid (PHI) 10,500: As I said above, Embiid should sit or see his minutes reduced on the second leg of this back-to-back set. You’re better off investing in Wood or one of the value plays listed above on this slate.
- Jamal Murray (DEN) $8,000: The red-hot Nuggets should absolutely pulverize the Magic. As a result, Denver’s starters may not see the court for very long, and that seriously caps their upside. I’m fading Murray most of Denver’s offense as a result.
- Aaron Gordon (DEN) $6,400: See Murray, Jamal.
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