Dynasty Sell High Candidates: Pre-NFL Draft
Buying and selling players in your dynasty leagues at the right time is a crucial part of dynasty success. However, it can be tough to do at times, especially because every league is different. Managers value players differently, and many leagues have slightly different rules or settings that might make a certain player more or less valuable.
While it can be tough to get deals done, if you can do them at the right time — and you have the correct outlook on a specific player — it can benefit your team. Taking advantage of hype before it fades can help you win trades — for instance, you could’ve sold A.J. Dillon for a boatload right before free agency when Aaron Jones re-signed. The weeks before the NFL Draft are similar to the start of free agency, as player values may soon swing dramatically.
Here are a few players I’d consider selling high on before the 2021 Draft gets here. I’ll use our dynasty consensus rankings.
I like to start with the more expensive players, and Kamara is one big name to sell. Since entering the league, he has averaged 55.7 rushing yards per game on 11.2 attempts. That rate is good for 30th among running backs with 20 or more appearances.
However, that limited volume has never been an issue because of his involvement in the passing game. But with Drew Brees retired, Kamara will see a drop in volume. We saw that in 2020 when Taysom Hill was the starter. If Jameis Winston were starting all 16 games, I wouldn’t be selling Kamara, but I cannot see a scenario where the Saints give Winston all of the work as long as they have Hill.
Kamara will turn 26 in July, so he’s still young and a very talented running back. Like everyone else in this list, these are players to consider selling high on, and if your dynasty team isn’t set up to win now, he’s someone to move. Kamara is the RB5 in our dynasty consensus rankings, and that is more than likely the highest it’ll be over the upcoming seasons. Long story short, Kamara may never again be as valuable as he is right now.
Davide Montgomery had a nice breakout season in 2020. He finished as the RB4 in PPR and averaged 17.4 points per game. As good as Montgomery was, I believe this was more a product of volume rather than anything else.
Tarik Cohen tore his ACL in Week 3, but he has already finished three seasons in Chicago with 70-plus targets, including one with 104 targets in 2019. According to FantasyData, he averaged 1.06 fantasy points per attempt, tying him for 24th in the NFL. He also saw a 70.9% snap percentage, which was the most for any running back.
This suggests that Montgomery’s season was mostly a product of volume. I don’t hate Montgomery, and I think he’ll be a serviceable RB2 in 2021, but I recommend using his 2020 performance to sell high. I bet that his 2020 campaign was the best season Montgomery will ever have from a fantasy perspective.
My top wide receiver for the 2020 class, CeeDee Lamb, is the next guy to try and sell for the right price. Don’t get me wrong, Lamb is in a very nice spot with Dak Prescott and should be successful for years to come. That said, Amari Cooper is still in Dallas, and his contract lasts until 2025. Oh, and he is just 26 years old.
Lamb is very talented and in a nice spot to produce, but his price tag is too high. As long as Cooper stays in Dallas, Lamb’s upside will be limited. Cooper just finished as the WR15 in PPR while Lamb was the WR24. Cooper led the team in targets, receptions, and yards. The veteran has also developed a nice relationship with Prescott, and it’s hard to imagine that Lamb will overtake that WR1 role.
I roster Lamb in plenty of leagues and will be shopping him as long as folks value him as the WR10. Meanwhile, Cooper sits at WR16 in our rankings. I haven’t even touched on Michael Gallup, who saw the field more than any wide receiver in Dallas last year. He saw 1,003 offensive snaps and finished as just one of three receivers to break quadruple digits in offensive snaps last year. All three wide receivers of them saw 100-plus targets last year, and I’m using this price tag to consider selling high on Lamb if I can get a nice return. You can probably get Cooper and some picks or another player for Lamb pretty easily right now.
Like Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk also had a nice rookie season. He finished as the WR35 in PPR leagues last year, averaging 15.4 points per game in just 12 appearances.
However, remember that he posted those numbers without George Kittle for the majority of the year. Deebo Samuel also played in just seven games. I like Aiyuk and his skill set, but a WR22 price tag is a bit much. For some perspective, Samuel is available much later as the WR33 and is the 70th player in our rankings.
The 49ers didn’t have many options on offense last year, and the way things are looking, they may have a rookie quarterback under center next year. This team’s WR1 role is totally up for grabs, and it could just as easily end up being Samuel. With a healthy Kittle and Samuel going into 2021, I don’t think you’re going to get quite the results you’re paying for right now with Aiyuk. He is someone to consider selling.
Rookie Draft Picks
If you’re new to dynasty football, you probably have been trying to go out and acquire draft picks, as this rookie class continues to gain hype. Honestly, this is probably one of, if not the worst, time of the year to buy rookie picks. The likelihood that even your first-round rookie picks hit isn’t something to get too excited about. We’ve been a bit spoiled over the last couple of years with how good these rookie classes have been, and right now, I’d be trying to sell these picks high where I can. Don’t sell cheap, but as your rookie drafts get closer, don’t be afraid to sell your rookie picks for production. Rookie picks are fun and exciting to own, but winning championships is the ultimate goal.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.