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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Monday (5/3)

May 3, 2021

Damian Lillard’s heating back up after a recent slump.

We’re down to the final two weeks of the NBA season! It’s been quite the year, and these last 10-14 days are going to be chaotic. There are already numerous players resting regularly, and it’s only going to worsen from here on out. We’re going to do our best to stray away from those teams, so let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

It’s rare that we have so many players spread throughout every position, but that’s just what we have here. We love when that happens, though, because it makes lineup construction so much more fluid. That’s huge at this time of the year with so many bizarre rotations, and it’ll be key to keep an eye on injury reports before the first game commences.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

PG at ATL $9,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Draymond Green (GSW) PF/C at NOR $7,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Nerlens Noel (NYK) C at MEM $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Joe Ingles (UTH) SG/SF vs. SAS $6,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Coby White (CHI) PG vs. PHI $6,500 ⭐⭐ Medium
Jusuf Nurkic (POR) C at ATL $7,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kent Bazemore (GSW) SF at NOR $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Facundo Campazzo (DEN) PG/SG at LAL $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Daniel Theis (CHI) PF/C vs. PHI $4,600 ⭐⭐ High
Gary Harris (ORL) SG/SF at DET $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

Damian Lillard (POR) $9,200
Lillard was in a really rough slump this time last week, and it lowered his price way too far. He’s definitely out of it now, though, scoring nearly 60 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That’s the stud we saw earlier in the year, with Dame averaging over 48 fantasy points per game for the season. The best part of this play might be the matchup, though, with Atlanta ranked 24th in defensive efficiency.

Draymond Green (GSW) $7,000
Draymond has been a different player this season with his sidekick Stephen Curry. While he doesn’t score a whole lot, his 6.9 rebounds, 8.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game have led to his impressive 32-point average for the season. He’s been even better recently, and he should be able to stuff the stat sheet at ease in a matchup like this. The Pelicans currently rank 27th in defensive efficiency and cater beautifully to a player like Draymond.

Nerlens Noel (NYK) $5,100
Noel has quietly been one of the best defensive players in the NBA, and it’s led to some monster fantasy production recently. In fact, Noel is averaging 32 DK points per game across his last nine outings. That makes this $5,100 price tag mind-boggling, especially with Noel swallowing up so many minutes in Mitchell Robinson’s absence. UPDATE: Noel left Sunday’s game so keep an eye on his status here.

Joe Ingles (UTH) $6,600
Utah has been trying to cope without Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell, but Ingles has been a pleasant surprise for them. He’s been good whenever given the opportunity, averaging over 31 DraftKings points per game in his 22 starts this year. That’s no surprise when you see that he’s the primary ball-handler in their absences, and he should have heavy usage again here with both of them still out.

Coby White (CHI) $6,500
Zach LaVine is inching closer to a return, so this is one of the final times White will remain a good value in this price range. He’s been starting at point guard in LaVine’s absence, posting a 26 percent usage rate with him off the floor. The young point guard has scored at least 30 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games in this expanded role, averaging over 32 DK points per game in that span.

Jusuf Nurkic (POR) $7,100
Nurk has finally been playing a full workload, and that’s the thing that’s made him fantasy relevant yet again. The boost in playing time has led to some big games, with Nurk scoring at least 29 fantasy points in six straight games averaging over 41 DK points per game in that span. That makes it hard to believe that he’s only $7,100, and we love the matchup against a bad Hawks defense.

Kent Bazemore (GSW) $5,200
Now that Kelly Oubre Jr. is out for the foreseeable future, Baze should be their go-to small forward. He’s already been starting recently anyway, but this guarantees him 30-35 minutes of play. That’s huge, with KB averaging over 26 DK points per game across his last nine outings, which is exactly when he took over starting duties. That looks even better with the Pelicans owning a 25th OPRK against opposing small forwards.

Facundo Campazzo (DEN) $4,600
Injuries have shredded the Nuggets backcourt, but it’s made Campazzo a fascinating fantasy option. It’s actually allowed Facu to start for over two weeks now, averaging 29 DK points per game across his last five outings. That’s a crazy total from a $4,600 player, and his 32-minute average in that span makes him hard to fade in this price range.

Daniel Theis (CHI) $4,600
Theis has been too good to be this cheap. He’s been given the starting power forward job in Chicago since his trade, scoring at least 21 DK points in five of his last six games. That’s a nice floor but a 52-point gem last week shows the sort of crazy upside he presents too. That’s a total that’s impossible to overlook from a sub-$5K player, and he could do even more here with Nikola Vuevic questionable.

Gary Harris (ORL) $4,300
Harris is not the sort of guy who will carry you to a GPP bink, but he’s one of the best bets out there to reach 5-6X value. Over his last 10 games played, Gary is averaging 21 DK points per game in 29 minutes a night. That looks even better when you see his 24-point average over his last four fixtures, which is all you can ask for from a $4,300 player.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,900: Jokic is cruising to a shocking MVP award, leading the NBA with nearly 60 DraftKings points per game. His floor is probably the most impressive thing about him, scoring at least 41 fantasy points in all but three games this year. He’s being asked to do even more with Jamal Murray, and Will Barton sidelined, making him impossible to fade.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,800: Curry is the best shooter of all time, and he’s in the midst of one of the best stretches of his career. Chef Curry is averaging 36.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists over his last 17 games played. That’s bad news for a putrid Pelicans defense.
  • Domantas Sabonis (IND) $9,800: Sabonis just made his return from a two-week absence on Friday, providing 26 points, 19 rebounds, and 14 assists in one of the best performances of the year. He actually did that damage in three quarters and should continue to run the show for this shorthanded team. We love that against a Wizards team that plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, with Dom dropping 61 DK points in their one meeting earlier this year.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL) $7,500: Bogdan has been brilliant in the absence of Trae Young and Kevin Huerter, but now that both of those guys are back, we don’t trust Bogey at this price.
  • Dillon Brooks (MEM) $5,700: I don’t like guys who only provide value through scoring. That’s even scarier in a situation like this, with New York allowing the fewest points in the NBA while playing at the second-slowest pace.
  • Montrezl Harrell (LAL) $4,600: Trez is too good of a player to be this cheap, but his role stinks in LA right now. He struggled for playing time once Andre Drummond joined the team, but he’s screwed now that Anthony Davis and LeBron James are healthy too. Over his last 12 games played, Harrell is playing just 19 minutes a night.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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