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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Tuesday (5/11)

May 11, 2021

Richaun Holmes has been too cheap on DK all year long.

It’s the final week of the regular season, and anarchy is going to ensue. This slate might be particularly annoying because we have the Toronto Raptors, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Detroit Pistons all in action. Those are the toughest teams to figure out for DFS purposes, with all three resting players regularly and throwing out random rotations every night. That makes things tough on us, so hopefully, this will help guide you in the right direction.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

We’ve had a few surprising value lists over the last few days in terms of positions, but this one creeps back to the norm. If you’re unfamiliar with the norm, it’s when point guards and centers dominate this section. That’s just what we have here, with all but two selections coming at those positions. A big reason for that is all of the injuries right now, and it’ll likely remain the case for the final week of the season.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Killian Hayes (DET) $5,400
The Pistons are completely done, and it’s time for them to see what they have in their first-round pick. The 19-year-old was reinserted into the starting lineup on Sunday, tallying 21 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists in the best game of his career. That shows the sort of talent this guy possesses, and he should be able to continue that form against a 28th-ranked T’Wolves defense.

Richaun Holmes (SAC) $6,900
Holmes has been too cheap on DK all year long, and it’s hard to understand why. The big man is having a breakout year behind his 32-point average, and we expect him to do even more with De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes and Tyrese Haliburton all sidelined. Our favorite part might be the matchup, though, with OKC surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Facundo Campazzo (DEN) $5,700
Denver has been excellent despite their whole backcourt getting injured, and Campazzo is a major reason why. He’s been starting at point guard with Jamal Murray, Will Barton, and Monte Morris all out, averaging 39.4 DK points per game across 34 minutes a night over his last four fixtures.

T.J. McConnell (IND) $5,500:
McConnell has been in this section a lot recently, and he’s going to remain in it until Malcolm Brogdon returns. In the last three games without him, TJ is averaging over 31 fantasy points per game. That’s plenty at this price, and he should be extra motivated against his former team.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $5,000:
Here’s the obligatory Bro-Lo write-up. The big man has been averaging nearly 29 fantasy points per game for two months now and has been destroying this $5K price tag in that span. Since the beginning of last week, he’s actually averaging 30 fantasy points per game, making this price tag even more shocking.

Dwight Powell (DAL) $4,200:
Powell has really stepped up ever since Kristaps Porzingis went down. The big man has scored at least 30 DK points in four of his last five games, generating a 34-point average in that span. The workload has been the only thing holding him back, but we love that he played at least 27 minutes in three of those. In addition, Indiana surrenders the most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

Josh Richardson (DAL) $4,900:
Richardson is in the same boat as Lopez. He’s been undervalued for months now, averaging 25 DK points per game since the beginning of March. That’s brilliant from such a cheap player, especially with J-Rich averaging 33 DK points per game over his last two outings. We adore that with Memphis surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.

Isaiah Stewart (DET) $6,400:
It’s never apparent what Detroit will do, but Stewart should be in your lineup if he starts. In his 13 starts this season, Stewart is averaging 34 DK points per game in 29 minutes a night. That’s a stellar rate, and he’s proven to be a per-minute monster when given the opportunity. We certainly don’t mind that he faces a bad defensive center like Karl-Anthony Towns and this terrible Timberwolves defense.

Nerlens Noel (NYK) $4,400:
Noel should get more credit for the defense he’s been playing for New York this season, stepping up in the absence of Mitchell Robinson. Over his last 13 games played, Nerlens is averaging over 27 fantasy points per game. That even includes an injury-shortened dud, making it hard to understand why he remains this cheap.

Jarred Vanderbilt (MIN) $4,600:
This is obviously a risky play, but it looks like Minnesota wants to start this guy for the rest of the year. Vandy is averaging 34 DK points per game in 29 minutes a night in his two games since gaining the starting power forward job. That’s truly absurd from such an affordable player, but it’s no surprise when you look at his per-game numbers. In the 22 games he’s played at least 21 minutes, JV is averaging 30 DraftKings points per game. It’s not like we expect this disastrous Detroit team to slow him down either.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,000: The Joker is well on his way to an MVP Award, and he’s earned every bit of it. The big man has scored at least 32 DraftKings points in every game this season, leading the NBA with a 58-point average. That’s bad news for a subpar Charlotte defense, especially considering Jokic dropped a triple-double on them in their last meeting.
  • Anthony Davis (LAL) $10,700: AD has been running things with LeBron James and Dennis Schroder sidelined, posting a 34 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor. More importantly, he’s averaging over 1.3 DK points per minute in that time, dropping 62 and 77 DraftKings points in his last two games without them. It sounds like LBJ will return here but that might take even more defense away from AD
  • Kevin Durant (BKN) $9,900: Durant is feeling it right now. The 32-year-old has scored at least 54 DK points in five of his seven games since returning from injury, which actually matches his average in that span. That’s not good for a 20th-ranked Bulls defense.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Kendrick Nunn (MIA) $5,100: Nunn has been a nice surprise for Miami with so many players missing but now that everyone is healthy, we can’t trust him. Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, and Jimmy Butler are all stealing minutes and ball-handling away from Nunn, and his price is a bit inflated with what he was doing a few weeks back.
  • Oshae Brissett (IND) $5,700: Brissett was in our fade section on Monday, and nothing has changed since then. He’s still seeing his role plummet with Domantas Sabonis back in the lineup, averaging just 18 DK points per game across his last four fixtures. That’s even more concerning against a top-5 Philly defense.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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