We have another beautifully compact slate for Monday night with seven games on the schedule. Unfortunately, the pitching matchups are anything but beautiful.
This isn’t a problem. To try to win a big tournament, we have to be a little different from the field — and, of course, correct. When options appear to be less-than-ideal, it’s actually easier to differentiate.
The rough pitching landscape coupled with the seven-game set will allow us to attack this article differently than we would on a full slate. I will still keep most of the main section intact, but the focus will largely rest on game theory for Monday.
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel 
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
I wrote the introduction as I did because starting pitching is both the obvious and troubling place to start for Monday. Almost no one is going to look at the selection and feel comfortable. The most likely decision? Start at the top. Except, those names include the likes of Anthony DeSclafani and Tyler Megill -- as far as both DraftKings and FanDuel being aligned are concerned. Tyler Megill. That's your headliner, according to DraftKings.
We have another beautifully compact slate for Monday night with seven games on the schedule. Unfortunately, the pitching matchups are anything but beautiful.
This isn’t a problem. To try to win a big tournament, we have to be a little different from the field — and, of course, correct. When options appear to be less-than-ideal, it’s actually easier to differentiate.
The rough pitching landscape coupled with the seven-game set will allow us to attack this article differently than we would on a full slate. I will still keep most of the main section intact, but the focus will largely rest on game theory for Monday.
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
I wrote the introduction as I did because starting pitching is both the obvious and troubling place to start for Monday. Almost no one is going to look at the selection and feel comfortable. The most likely decision? Start at the top. Except, those names include the likes of Anthony DeSclafani and Tyler Megill -- as far as both DraftKings and FanDuel being aligned are concerned. Tyler Megill. That's your headliner, according to DraftKings.
Megill isn't priced so high because of hype. He's earned his spot at the top, as surprising as it may be to some. Still, when we scan the names, the natural inclination will probably result in seeking comfort with DeSclafani's longer track record than Megill. This is the first decision point of the night. Every number suggests that Megill is the right answer, where only his name value and the eventual regression will weigh him down. The latter is a legitimate concern, though, and I will probably limit my exposure to Megill, even if I use him in a lineup somewhere. The real takeaway from this comparison at the top of the salary chart is that DeSclafani will probably gain popularity, which means I want no part of him.
On FanDuel, one name appears inside the top two that have not been mentioned: Jesus Luzardo. The twist? He's insanely cheap on DraftKings. The twist upon the twist? He hasn't started a game since May 1st. The Marlins are almost certainly using him in their rotation, and DraftKings has him listed as the starting pitcher, so this is the ultimate risk-reward play. I may roll the dice with Luzardo, but only in an extreme boom-or-bust lineup.
Luzardo has another theme that will force two other pitchers into the spotlight on Monday: he was recently traded. So were Andrew Heaney and Josiah Gray. Their debuts with their respective new teams will absolutely be a talking point that gets people's attention, so we have to balance expectations with the spotlight. The problem is that Heaney and Gray are incredibly enticing on Monday. The hype that will surround them is entirely based on perception, but they might shine anyway. Heaney will get more attention than Gray, so the first pivot off popularity is there, but I can't argue against using Heaney with his positive regression against the Orioles as well.
Overall, I find it curious that names we would consider "trustworthy" are slightly less expensive than players I could argue are on the verge of an implosion. I always take that seriously, and I am inclined to stay away from names like Chris Flexen if I can use Josiah Gray instead -- because, all things being equal, Flexon's history should not have him priced lower than Gray. This is common for Monday, and I reflected it in the chart above, where I am leaning squarely on players who best fit the "game theory" strategy.
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Diamondbacks
Angels
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I wrote about not using Anthony DeSclafani at his high price -- and with his expected high popularity -- but I'm taking it one step further and stacking the Diamondbacks against him. Recent trades make this endeavor a little more difficult than it used to be, but Ketel Marte is still an easy add for me. He's essentially the last player standing after injuries and trades have decimated Arizona's lineup, and Marte is returning to action after a lengthy stint on the Injured List himself.
In one of the more unique situations I have seen in DFS, DraftKings and FanDuel started without Shohei Ohtani in their player pools. As of this writing, DraftKings has announced that he will get added, while I assume -- but it is only an assumption -- that FanDuel will follow suit. Ohtani is a must-start for me if I am stacking the Angels, so I will have to mentally budget top dollar for him and use a placeholder until he is added.
Until Ohtani is given a price, the highest salary of the night belongs to Juan Soto. That's not surprising at all, but there might be a few people turning away from him because of his matchup with the left-handed Ranger Suarez. Absolutely no one is afraid of Suarez, but Soto, isolated in Washington's now-barren lineup, loses the handedness advantage and maybe a few DFS players in the process. I'm buying in, especially as I'm starting to see that salary will not be an issue.
On Friday, I wrote about the Yankees and their new additions being chalk in DFS tournaments. I was wrong. For Monday, I suspect it will be right. The Yankees are returning home after a sweep in which one of their Trade Deadline acquisitions thrived. This will get people's attention and, while I am on board with New York continuing their winning ways -- especially with the Orioles coming to town -- I want to pivot slightly to the less popular Gleyber Torres. He will be overlooked given the attention paid to two new left-handed hitters entering a ballpark designed to boost their power, while Torres remains capable of a breakout at any moment. His salary is also at its highest point over his last ten games.
As usual, by the time I filled out my lineup on both DraftKings and FanDuel concurrently, I had excess money with the latter. Enough money to add a legitimate, Core Stud of a hitter. Enter Kolton Wong. Wong has five hits in his last two games and seventeen hits over his last 12 contests -- basically, since the All-Star Break. Wong was given a day off on Sunday, so we can target him in his return to action against Bryse Wilson and the Pirates.
Justin Upton is a regular for my DFS lineups because he is always underpriced and, when healthy, can contribute to a winning team. The "when healthy" caveat hurts him in many areas, but not DFS. He's starting for me on Monday as part of my stack.
I wrote about Gleyber Torres as an overlooked member of the Yankees in the Core Studs section, but Rougned Odor has the same potential and the advantage of the left-handed bat in Yankee Stadium. It's a little too obvious for my liking on the surface, but New York is a clear team stack on Monday, and Odor is a great avenue for exposure to the lineup.
Jacob Stallings was a highlighted hitter in my article for Friday's games, and he remains a quietly decent play when looking for a less-expensive catcher who isn't a complete punt at the position. As a whole, Pittsburgh doesn't have the setup I like for a big offensive day, but Stallings provides such value for his price at a thin position. He also sat out on Sunday to be rested and ready for Monday's game against the Brewers. Since I am not starting Eric Lauer in most lineups, Stallings also helps attack him from this hitters' side of the equation.
I'm certainly not playing it safe with my lineup for Monday, but Drew Ellis is the biggest risk. He batted third on Sunday in his second career start and has solid power potential. He's also priced at the bare minimum and may not be starting. The issue is that locking into Ellis too early will potentially prevent us from making a late swap, so proceed with caution.
Like what I wrote at the end of the Core Studs section regarding FanDuel, I found that I had enough excess money on DraftKings to pay for a higher-end Value Play. Nathaniel Lowe is still trying to put an exclamation point on a career year, but he lost the lineup support of Joey Gallo at the Trade Deadline. Lowe is hitting anyway. He is riding a five-game hitting streak -- with seven hits in that span -- and his salary is at the highest point of his last nine games. Lowe's left-handed bat against the left-handed Jose Suarez is probably helping to suppress the hitter's salary, while it will likely keep his popularity minuscule as well.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
I alluded to this at multiple points over the course of this article, but salaries were not tight on Monday. I had wiggle room almost everywhere, and it included paying for the most expensive "placeholder" in anticipation of the release of Shohei Ohtani's salary.
It's not difficult to see why or how I had so much money for a lineup. The starting pitchers were, as a whole, on the less expensive side of the scale. Even if we used the two highest-priced arms, we probably would have had a higher average remaining salary than most days. The ability to mix in someone like Josiah Gray or Jesus Luzardo opened the door for almost any combination of hitters.
The results of most builds were "stars-and-scrubs." Because it was relatively easy to use hitters like Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani -- eventually -- I spent the money there and balanced it with the Value Plays -- many of whom were below the average price we see regularly.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.
