Week 7 Sunday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Colts at 49ers)

The Colts face the 49ers in San Francisco after the host’s bye week last week. The game’s over/under suggests a low-scoring affair. However, the small spread hints at a close game if things go according to the betting odds.

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Game: Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: SF -4.0 Points

Over/Under: 43.0 Points

Colts Analysis: Don't look now, but the Colts' offense is rounding into form. They've scored 25 points or more with 349 yards of offense or more in three straight, per Pro-Football-Reference. Unfortunately, it looks like they'll be without T.Y. Hilton after his rock-solid season debut last week.

Still, Carson Wentz is playing high-caliber football. The former Eagle has tossed precisely two touchdowns in each of the last three games, passing for 228 yards, 402 yards, and 223 yards. I'm willing to forgive the two low yardage totals because the Colts won both of those contests by double-digit points. Wentz should be asked to do more Sunday night since this game projects to be closer, and the matchup isn't too shabby. According to Football Outsiders, the 49ers rank 14th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Thus, I expect Wentz to fair well.

Michael Pittman Jr. is without question the top option in the passing game, namely if Hilton is out. Last week's disappointing game snapped a four-game streak of six or more receptions and 59 receiving yards or more. The matchup is challenging, but I expect Pittman's volume to win out. So, I'm using him on this single-game slate.

In addition to Hilton probably missing this game, Parris Campbell is on injured reserve. Therefore, Zach Pascal moves up the pecking order. Despite the move up the food chain, I'm fading him. The 26-year-old receiver caught three touchdown passes in the first two games. However, he's yet to eclipse 50 yards receiving in a game. Maybe he can snap a four-game stretch of failing to reach paydirt, but that's his most likely path to fantasy value as an inefficient source or receiving yards.

Instead, I like gigantic tight end Mo Alie-Cox and deep sleeper Ashton Dulin. According to Pro Football Focus, Alie-Cox ran 22 routes to 24 for Jack Doyle over the last two weeks. However, Doyle has only two targets resulting in one reception for four yards. Meanwhile, Alie-Cox has six targets, yielding four receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. I'm viewing his 27.3% target-per-route rate the last two weeks as an indication Indy is prioritizing getting him the ball when he runs routes.

As for Dulin, he hasn't done much in the NFL. However, he secured all three of his targets for 20 receiving yards on just 17 routes the last two games. The absences of Hilton and Campbell might result in more involvement in the offense. Further, the third-year undrafted pro out of Malone college has an intriguing athletic profile. I'll use him to save cap space for both teams' top dogs while presumably being contrarian.

Finally, Jonathan Taylor is my favorite option from the Colts. According to our snap counts, Taylor played a season-high 65% of the snaps last week. In addition, he's played over 50% of the snaps in three straight games. Moving beyond the playing time percentages, Taylor's more than doubled-up Nyheim Hines in routes the last two games, running 30 compared to only 14 for the supposed pass-catching back.

The second-year back is averaging 92.7 yards from scrimmage per game, scoring five touchdowns, and using his top-shelf straight-line speed to rip off an 83-yard run that's the longest in the NFL this season. The explosive element Taylor brings to the table should be enhanced against the 49ers. According to Sharp Football Stats, San Francisco has permitted the fifth-highest average explosive run rate (14%) this year.

49ers Analysis: The 49ers' musical chairs at quarterback continue, as Jimmy Garoppolo comes out of the bye week healthy to start for a banged-up Trey Lance, who's been ruled out already. Interestingly, Lance's absence is a double-dose of good news for Jimmy G, eliminating the risk of an in-game benching and removing the threat of the dual-threat rookie stealing work in the red zone.

When we last saw Garoppolo, he passed for 165 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the first half of Week 4 against the Seahawks. He also has a 314-yard, one-touchdown effort on his ledger and a game with 257 yards and two touchdown passes. However, he also stunk up the joint in Week 2, passing for only 189 yards and one touchdown. So, the range of outcomes is wide. He's a fine option on a single-game slate. Yet, he's not a must-use player.

My favorite selection from the 49ers is YAC-monster wideout, Deebo Samuel. The dynamic wideout is second in the NFL with 109.6 receiving yards per game. He's also averaging 6.2 receptions per game, adding six rush attempts for 22 yards and one rushing touchdown, as well as three receiving touchdowns for giggles. Circling back to his YAC-monster label, he leads the NFL with 310 yards after the catch, per Sports Info Solutions. In addition, his 31.6% target share is the fourth-highest mark.

Unfortunately, Brandon Aiyuk has been a colossal disappointment after a superb rookie season. Still, he's emerged from the doghouse to an extent. In San Francisco's last two games, he's run the second-most routes (60). Maybe Kyle Shanahan will make a concerted effort to get him the ball out of the bye. Perhaps he won't. Regardless, Aiyuk's standing as the No. 2 option in the passing game at least warrants consideration on this single-game slate.

Finally, three backs are the other players featured in the table. In their last three games, fullback Kyle Juszczyk ran the third-most routes (58) on the team, parlaying his routes into seven receptions for 76 yards. However, Jamychal Hasty is back from the injured reserve. In Week 1 and Week 2, when Juszczyk, Hasty, and Elijah Mitchell were healthy, the routes were tightly clustered with 25 for Juszczyk, 24 for Hasty, and 22 for Mitchell. So, I don't believe any should be viewed as the top pass-catching specialist. Juszcsyk and Hasty are defensible contrarian options.

However, Mitchell is the best bet to touch the ball the most in the backfield. The speedy rookie running back has played 64% of the team's snaps in the three games he's played, setting a season-high with 68% in Week 5. He's averaging 15.0 rush attempts, 1.3 receptions, 63.0 rushing yards, and 10.0 receiving yards per game. He's also scored one touchdown.

Unfortunately, the Colts rank first in rush defense DVOA. Still, Mitchell is in a run-heavy offense that's average or better at run blocking. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, San Francisco's 46% run rate is the seventh-highest mark. And, Football Outsiders ranks them 14th in Adjusted Line Yards, while Pro Football Focus grades them as the fifth-best run-blocking team. Therefore, I'm eschewing concerns about the matchup when factoring in the other context.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.