Week 10 Thursday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Ravens at Dolphins)

The Ravens are more than a touchdown favorite on the road against the Dolphins to start Week 10. Interestingly, their fantasy options on the single-game slate are highly concentrated. However, Miami’s fantasy options are wide-spanning. There’s uncertainty abound regarding the Dolphins’ offense.

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Game: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Spread: BAL -7.5 Points

Over/Under: 46.5 Points

Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson is unreal. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he is in the top-10 in passing yards per game (276.1/10th and rushing yards per game (75.0/seventh). Meanwhile, the Dolphins are ill-equipped to handle him. According to Football Outsiders, they rank 18th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and 22nd in pass defense DVOA. As a result, I prioritize using him as my Captain on DraftKings and MVP on FanDuel. Thankfully, there's value elsewhere to make that lineup decision an easy one.

Latavius Murray appears likely to miss another game, removing one of the dusty veteran running backs from the committee. Devonta Freeman has climbed to the top of the backfield pecking order in Murray's absence.  According to our snap counts leaders, Freeman leads the running backs (Patrick Ricard is a fullback) in offensive snap percentage in Baltimore's previous two games. However, that's relatively speaking, as he played 40% of the snaps in Week 7 and 58% in Week 9. Also, according to Pro Football Focus, Freeman's 45 routes in the last two games are more than Ty'Son Williams' (25) and Le'Veon Bell's (15) routes combined. Nevertheless, he's not a must-use player even in his current role and attached to a likely favorable game script. Still, if you're investing in Baltimore's backfield, he's the guy to use.

Instead, I'm honed in on Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman in that specific order. Brown's going off this year, ranking sixth in Intended Air Yards (860), according to Sports Info Solutions, and 11th in yards per route run (2.30 Y/RR) among receivers targeted at least 25 times, per Pro Football Focus. In addition, Hollywood is tied for 18th in receptions per game (5.8), sixth in receiving yards per game (85.3), and tied for seventh in touchdown receptions (six). Finally, he has a dreamy matchup against the Dolphins. Miami has allowed the third-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to receivers.

I also love Andrews. He's second on the team in targets (61), receptions per game (5.3), receiving yards per game (70.0), and touchdown receptions (three). So, I'll gladly make the salary-cap commitment for using Jackson, Brown, and Andrews together.

Finally, Bateman has carved out a significant role in Baltimore's offense in his return from the injured reserve. In three games, Bateman has per-game averages of 4.0 receptions and 53.7 receiving yards. Also, he's second on the team in routes (100) in his three healthy games. Sammy Watkins might return this week, so he could squeeze Bateman for targets and playing time. Still, Bateman has played very well, so I'm willing to roll the dice on him on this single-game slate, namely at FanDuel.

Dolphins Analysis: It appears Miami's quarterback situation will be a game-time decision. As I almost always say in the single-game slate pieces, any starting quarterback is a defensible option. However, if Tua Tagovailoa starts, I worry about a potential early exit if his fractured finger bothers him or limits his productivity. Yet, if Jacoby Brissett starts, he's an unexciting option. Brissett has averaged only 233.3 passing yards per game with five touchdowns and three interceptions in four games as a starter this season. So I'm fading both quarterbacks.

The top options on the Dolphins are Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki. In addition, both have thrived when DeVante Parker is out. According to the Market Share Split App at 4for4.com, Waddle's per-game averages with Parker out are 9.3 targets, 6.8 receptions, 66.8 receiving yards, and 0.50 receiving touchdowns. Meanwhile, Gesicki's per-game averages are 8.0 targets, 5.8 receptions, 74.3 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns without Parker. As a result, both players are excellent selections.

Myles Gaskin is another integral part of the offense. He has received a playing time and usage bump with Malcolm Brown hurt. Unfortunately, he's inefficient and has fallen short of 60 scrimmage yards in back-to-back games. As a result, I'm content with fading him.

Now, we've reached the speed round of briefly touching on Miami's logjam of uncertainty at the bottom of their passing-game hierarchy. In Miami's last three games, the highlighted players in the table rank in the following descending order for routes, topped by Mack Hollins (66), then Adam Shaheen (58), Durham Smythe (52), Preston Williams (19), and Albert Wilson (16).

However, Williams routes all game in Week 7, as he's been inactive in two games. Head coach Brian Flores indicates Williams will play this week.

He's risky, but his $200 salary on DraftKings is intriguing. I'm disinterested in spending the requisite salary to use Hollins. I'm also out on Wilson, as he might be completely phased out with Williams back in the fold. So, that leaves Smythe and Shaheen as other value plays. Truthfully, picking between them is splitting hairs. It is a legitimate coin flip. Still, I'll likely use them as salary relief on both daily fantasy providers to use Jackson, Brown, and Andrews on the same team.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.