The Saints beat the Buccaneers earlier this year in a game Jameis Winston suffered a season-ending knee injury, and Trevor Siemian relieved him. Taysom Hill is the quarterback for this one, and the visiting Saints are rightfully massive underdogs. Unfortunately, this is a lopsided matchup, and that’s reflected by the game’s spread and my picks.
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Game: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -11.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
The Saints beat the Buccaneers earlier this year in a game Jameis Winston suffered a season-ending knee injury, and Trevor Siemian relieved him. Taysom Hill is the quarterback for this one, and the visiting Saints are rightfully massive underdogs. Unfortunately, this is a lopsided matchup, and that’s reflected by the game’s spread and my picks.
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Game: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -11.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Saints Analysis: I believe this is the fewest players I've featured in a showdown table all year. Further, I'm likely fading Hill for fear he'll get lifted for Siemian if the Saints fall behind multiple scores early and need to air it out to get back into the game. However, he's a weapon as a runner, and Josh Allen gashed the Bucs as a runner last week. So, if the Saints can keep it closer than the spread suggests, Hill can deliver for gamers that take a chance on him.
Alvin Kamara is the crown jewel on the Saints, a game-script-proof weapon. In addition, the Bucs aren't world-beaters defending the run in 2021. According to Football Outsiders, Tampa Bay is 17th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Thankfully, the Saints didn't ease Kamara back into action last week. Instead, they force-fed him the rock 27 times and targeted him five times, netting 120 rushing yards, one touchdown, four receptions, and 25 receiving yards. New Orleans' passing game lack game-breaking receivers, so Kamara is a good bet for a hearty target share as a pass-catching option. However, I have a minor concern if this game is a boat race out of the chute, as a returning Mark Ingram might siphon work later in the game to preserve Kamara.
Finally, Adam Trautman was activated from the Injured Reserve this week. Thus, he's back for this NFC South showdown. I expect him to reprise his role atop the Saints depth chart at tight end. In the three games before his knee injury, Trautman posted lines of 4-47-0, 5-32-0, and 5-58-1. So, he was in respectable form. At the minimum, I love Trautman as a punt on a team that's likely to have to air it out often.
Buccaneers Analysis: The Saints are first in rush defense DVOA, and the Bucs didn't waste many plays on carries against their stout front in the first meeting. Tampa Bay's running backs carried the ball just 13 times combined. Instead, Tom Brady aired it out 40 times. Yes, obviously, the game script might have had a hand in the discrepancy. Nevertheless, the Bucs haven't been shy about deploying pass-heavy offenses this year. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, Tampa Bay passes as the second-highest rate (67%). Brady's orchestrating the pass-happy offense to an MVP-front-runner caliber season, leading the NFL in passing yards per game (318.0) and passing touchdowns (36). He's a lock-button selection, and an excellent Captain/MVP pick.
Take your pick of his top pass-catchers. However, Rob Gronkowski is my favorite option, salary considered. He didn't play much in the first game, exiting early with an injury. Thankfully, he's on a heater since returning in Week 11. In four games since returning from injury, Gronk has been targeted 34 times (at least eight times in each game), hauling in 22 receptions for 314 receiving yards (at least 58 receiving yards in each game), and two touchdowns.
Chris Godwin is my second-favorite pass-catcher. He has averaged 7.1 receptions and 81.1 receiving yards per game, scoring six touchdowns. In addition, in back-to-back games, Godwin has been in lockstep with Brady, producing a 15-143-0 line on 17 targets and a 10-105-0 line on 15 targets in the previous two games. Also, he'll avoid Marshon Lattimore in coverage for the most part. According to Pro Football Focus, Godwin has played 69.9% of his passing snaps from the slot. Meanwhile, Lattimore has played only 42 snaps covering the slot this season.
In recent years, if you've followed the Saints and Buccaneers matchups, you're probably familiar with Lattimore traveling with Mike Evans and giving him fits. Evans didn't completely face plant in the first matchup, saving his day with a touchdown reception. The physical wideout is talented enough to win his matchup with Lattimore. However, I prefer to use Godwin and Gronk instead.
The sneaky player in Tampa Bay's passing attack is Scotty Miller -- if he's active to replace vertical threat Breshad Perriman, who is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Miller was a home-run hitter at times in 2020. Unfortunately, he's done almost nothing this year. Nonetheless, the matchup is good for him shaking out of his season-long funk. According to Sharp Football Stats, New Orleans allows the eighth-highest explosive pass rate (10%). So all it takes is one play for Miller to make a house call. Also, at the minimum salary of $200 on DraftKings, he might not kill your lineup if the studs he awards you cap space to use together all deliver the goods.
Finally, Leonard Fournette is listed as questionable but expected to play. Add up his injury report listing, the double-digit spread that might allow Bruce Arians to give Fournette a breather in a blowout by using Ronald Jones and New Orleans' stingy run defense, and I'm fading Fournette. Is it possible for Fournette to overcome the matchup and concerns through his receiving game usage (4.8 receptions and 32.4 receiving yards per game) and ability to reach pay dirt (10 touchdowns)? Yes, he obviously can. However, there's enough downside to push me toward Tampa Bay's other studs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
