While it’s always important to identify the next big sleeper and breakout candidates, it’s equally important to avoid those fantasy football draft-day landmines. You know what I’m talking about. Those picks that torpedo your draft and have you behind the eight ball before the season begins. Don’t worry, we have you covered. Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown have shared their early players to avoid based on their average draft position (ADP).

Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT): WR14
The ADP market believes that Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett can take the Steelers to the fantasy promised land. I am not as optimistic.

The best-case scenario for the Steelers’ No. 1 wide receiver is seeing a boatload of targets – albeit inefficient like last season when he ranked second in that category – to deliver for fantasy.

Whether it’s Trubisky or the rookie under center, that is the reality with DJ. Let’s not forget that last year’s heavily-coveted rookie quarterback class produced almost zero reliable options outside of Brandin Cooks (WR20), Jakobi Meyers (WR33) and Kendrick Bourne (WR30).

So with a top-15 early best ball ADP in an offense with more competition for targets between Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens and Calvin Austin III, I would need Johnson to fall significantly in drafts before selecting him.
– Andrew Erickson

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA): WR8
Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. But he came in slightly under expectations. The ‘Cheetah’ wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2).

It’s worth noting that Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th). Hill’s aDOT also dipped dramatically to 10.6, which was the lowest it’s been since his rookie season.

And It’s undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it’s hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-5 season with a lesser passer. Especially with Tagovailoa’s lack of a confident deep ball, a prominent running game, and Jaylen Waddle also heavily involved in the offensive game plan. Sure, Hill will have his weeks when he is peppered with low-value targets in PPR formats, but the massive downfield touchdowns will happen much less frequently.
– Andrew Erickson

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI): WR35
DeAndre Hopkins wasn’t completely washed last season, but his days as an elite alpha wide receiver could be over. Last season he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game as he logged his first season since 2017 outside the top 20 in targets per snap. Hopkins only commanded a 20.5% target share which was good for 35th among wideouts. While the suspension should ensure that Hopkins will return fully healthy, it’s not a sure thing that we don’t see his numbers decline further in 2022. He ranked 31st in yards per route run last season (minimum 50 targets, per PFF).
– Derek Brown

D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA): WR15
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts D.K. Metcalf in a tough spot.Although the alpha wideout did rise to the occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th – same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games. But I am suspect that removing their quarterback that led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6), and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury is going to create a much larger impact over a 17-game sample size.
– Andrew Erickson

Chris Godwin (WR – TB): WR20
Chris Godwin posted another stellar season last year as the WR7 in fantasy football. He set opposing defenses on fire as Tom Brady‘s underneath weapon, ranking eighth in YAC per reception and fifth in overall YAC yardage. The biggest question for Godwin in 2022 isn’t talent but his recovery from an ACL and MCL tear sustained in Week 15 of last season. If Godwin is good to go, he’s a top 15 fantasy wideout, but tempering expectations early on if he’s limited or starts on the PUP pushes him into WR2/WR3 territory based on possible time missed.
– Derek Brown

Allen Robinson (WR – LAR): WR34
Allen Robinson slots in alongside Cooper Kupp as the Rams’ number two receiving option after a down year with the Bears in 2021. In his final season in the Windy City, Robinson’s yards per route dipped to a career-low of 1.13, which ranked 79th out of 90 qualifying wide receivers with 50 or more targets. Even pigeonholing Robinson in the Odell Beckham role from last season isn’t as lucrative as it seems. In Weeks 12-18 last year, Beckham saw an 18.7% target share which would have ranked 44th among wide receivers. He also averaged 12.0 fantasy points per game which placed him as the WR31 in weekly fantasy production among wide receivers that started three or more games in that span. If his efficiency bounces back to previous levels, Robinson is a WR3 with WR2 upside.
– Derek Brown

FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings