I believe one of the most important factors that leads to good fantasy drafts is not having the mindset that you must end up with a certain player on your roster to win your league. There are a couple of reasons that I believe that. The first reason is that average draft position (ADP) matters when it comes to drafting players. If I have the attitude that I must have a player that has an ADP of 80, the temptation is there to draft him with the 50th pick. I do not want to risk waiting and losing him, so I end up taking him way earlier than needed. That leads to reaching for risky players and passing on better ones, and one of my first rules of fantasy football is that you need to stay true to your draft board.

The other reason that I believe it is not wise to reach for players, is that a season is loaded with established players that outperform their ADP. Too often, we think that if a player is not a superstar after his second year, he has no upside. Cooper Kupp won the triple crown of receiving last year with 145 receptions, 1,947 receiving yards, and 16 receiving touchdowns.

He was only the fourth player since 1970 to accomplish that feat and the first since Steve Smith did so for the Carolina Panthers in 2005. Kupp was a known commodity that had been in the league since 2017 and he was a good fantasy asset, but he had never had a season like that. He had a solid ADP at 51 and that is exactly the time that an overanxious fantasy manager that must have a player at all costs reaches for a good rookie, like Javonte Williams, or a potential breakout player in his second year, like Brandon Aiyuk, and passed on the triple crown winner.

Therefore, I prefer to look at must-have running backs through the caveat of must-have running backs for that tier. Seeing any running back in the first or second tier is a must-have running back because that would make the player a first-round running back, here are some running backs from the RB3 tier to the RB7 tier:

RB3 Tier

Aaron Jones (RB – GB) – I think a lot has been made about how the Packers are going to replace Davante Adams in the passing game and the inclination that most people have is to look at the new wide receivers on the roster to replace that production. The place to look may be the running backs instead. Since 2019, the Packers have played seven games without Adams, and while that is a small sample size, the theme has been that Jones has received a monster workload. In those seven games, Jones tallied 101 carries, 470 rushing yards, and six rushing touchdowns. He also had a huge role in the passing game with 47 targets, 36 receptions, 388 receiving yards, and four receiving touchdowns. Some of his best games as a Packer have been without Adams in the lineup.

I think it is reasonable to expect Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard, and rookie Christian Watson to work as a group to pick up the slack for Adams, but do not sleep on Jones. He is one of the most versatile running backs in the NFL and an excellent way to make up for some of the lost production with Adams departing for Las Vegas is to play both A.J. Dillon and Jones at the same time with Jones lined up at wide receiver or in the slot. Jones could be one of the most targeted running backs in fantasy this year, which would make him a must-roster player when teamed with Aaron Rodgers. Jones is the 17th-ranked player and 10th-ranked running back, which would make him a must-draft in the second round.

Aaron Jones Game Logs without Davante Adams – Since 2019

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) – Barkley has never been able to build on his solid rookie season when he posted 2,028 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns in 2018. He has had problems staying healthy and some fantasy managers are not going to be able to forget the 14 missed games in 2020 and the four missed games in 2021. Barkley has averaged only 3.8 and 4.2 yards per touch in those years and scored only four touchdowns, which also has some fantasy managers down on his 2022 prospects. In my mind, I love his value as the 2oth overall player and 12th-ranked running back because I have enough optimism that some good changes are going on in New York and that ranking makes it easier to overlook the bad things that have happened the last two years.

Former head coach Joe Judge and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett are gone. They had some of the worst schemes in the NFL. The Giants now have Brian Daboll as the head coach and Mike Kafka as their offensive coordinator. Daboll was the offensive coordinator for an explosive Buffalo Bills offense and Kafka was a quarterbacks coach and offensive assistant for the explosive Kansas City Chiefs offense. Barkley will see much more work in the passing game in a better offensive scheme, which should help his production. They added Evan Neal to the offensive line, which should help create much better running lanes. They still seem committed to building an offense around Barkley, as the only notable upgrades they made at backup running back were Matt Breida in free agency and Jashaun Corbin as an undrafted free agent.

Barkley was a player that was competing for the top overall pick in 2019, and with no solid backup and a much better coaching staff, I think it makes him a must-roster player at his current ADP. The only huge downside is Daniel Jones being back under center for another year, which is a big downside. Hopefully a new coaching staff and improved roster will help Jones rediscover his promising 2019 rookie season. Jones was a good rookie with 3,027 yards passing and 24 passing touchdowns on just 459 passing attempts. It cannot be overstated how awful Judge and Garrett were for this offense.

RB4 Tier

David Montgomery (RB – CHI) – Montgomery was not able to build on his 2020 season when he tallied 1,508 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns. He also was not a disaster on an offense that ranked 27th in points scored and 24th in yards gained in 2021. Despite missing four games with injury, he still finished with 1,150 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. That was the third straight year that he finished with at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. He has been the 25th-, 24th-, and 19th-ranked running back for the last three years, and he will be the centerpiece of this offense again in 2022.

There are going to be some rough patches this year; Justin Fields is in his second year and they have one of the weakest wide receiver groups in the NFL. Their offensive line is a work in progress, ranked 31st by Pro Football Focus. They have a new coaching staff and the over/under on their wins this year is 6.5 games. To say this is a bad roster that will not win many games this year is a pretty safe bet.

I think Montgomery has proven himself to be a fantasy-viable running back for three straight years with a suspect passing game and a lot of the same supporting cast issues. He has the easiest schedule in the NFL for a running back, with FantasyPros giving him a Strength of Schedule Score of 9.0. I think that makes him a player that you need to roster as the 17th-ranked running back and 33rd-ranked overall player.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) – The Jets not only took Hall in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but they traded up to the 36th pick to take him. That should tell you everything you need to know about the pecking order when it comes to Hall and Michael Carter. Carter did have 964 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns last year, and he is still going to have a role this year. However, teams that are (4-13) do not trade up to the 36th pick to take a running back that they then sit behind a player that was taken in the fourth round of the prior draft. Hall is going to be the bellcow back and Carter is going to be the change-of-pace back unless Carter is the much better player in training camp.

I think Hall is ready for the NFL game. He handled 279 carries in 2020 and 253 carries last year. He had 82 receptions in three years and finished his career with 4,675 yards from scrimmage and 56 touchdowns. The Jets had arguably the best draft in the NFL, and Carter had some success running the ball last year. I think Hall is a candidate to be significantly better than Carter was as a rookie and see 300 touches in 2022. He could be a steal as the 41st overall player and the 20th-ranked running back.

Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF) – I think Mitchell is too low this year. He was the 26th-ranked running back last year with 147.0 fantasy points and there is not much competition behind him this year. Jeff Wilson Jr. averaged 3.7 yards per carry last year. Mitchell and Trey Sermon were both rookies last year, and Mitchell finished with 207 carries to Sermon’s 41 carries. Tyrion Davis-Price was a third-round pick this year, but Sermon was also a third-round pick last year and that led to 41 carries. Davis-Price could have a role near the goal line with his 6’1″, 232-pound frame, but he had that same frame last year and scored six rushing touchdowns at LSU.

There is always fear that Kyle Shanahan could go with five different running backs in the backfield, but I think they liked what they saw from Mitchell last year and it is his job to lose early in the year. The 49ers ran the ball 499 times last year and Mitchell saw 207 of the carries or 41.4% of the rushing attempts. He did that despite playing in only 11 games and starting 10 of them. I think if the 49ers were in a race to replace him, they would have done more than draft Davis-Price in the third round. As the 45th overall player and the 23rd-ranked running back, there is not a ton of risk given what he showed last season. I think he is a must-draft player at that value in that offense.

A.J. Dillon (RB – GB) – Dillon played in all 17 games and started only two games, but he still finished with 1,116 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. He was the 22nd-ranked fantasy running back with 161.4 fantasy points. That makes it a little puzzling why he is the 25th-ranked running back and 55th overall player. The Packers lost Davante Adams in free agency this year and that means they are going to have to figure out a way to replace his production. One way is to use Aaron Jones more in the passing game and give Dillon an expanded role in the running game.

I do not feel like Dillon had a fluky year last year. Aaron Jones started 15 games and was relatively healthy. Dillon still saw a lot of touches, he is 6′ 0″, 247 pounds, and he is one of the most physical backs in the league. The Packers seem to be making the pivot toward being a team that relies on the running game and defense when you look at their last three drafts. While they will still throw the ball with Rodgers when they need to throw the ball, Dillon is going to be a huge part of their plans in the running game. Considering that his role should be expanding, he should be ranked higher than he finished last year, not lower. He is a must-have running back in that tier.

RB5 Tier

Devin Singletary (RB – BUF) – Singletary was a disappointment for most of last year, but in the final five games of the regular season, he averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game and in the postseason he tallied 145 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns. Zack Moss appears to be a nonfactor at this point and the only back that is going to push Singletary for touches early in the season is James Cook, who was taken in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

I do not think Cook is a huge threat to Singletary this year, because he only had 230 rushing attempts in four years at Georgia and it usually takes rookies a year to learn the ins and outs of the blocking assignments to warrant significant playing time in passing situations. That does not mean that Cook is not a slight threat to Singletary, but I think that draft selection was made with Singletary being in a contract year this year and the Bills wanting to have insurance for 2023 in case Singletary leaves in free agency. Singletary will have every chance to be the starter this year and keep his job as the lead back. He is the 32nd-ranked running back and 78th-ranked player overall. He has a ton of upside based on how he finished the 2021 season with that ADP, which makes him a must-roster running back this year.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE) – He is likely to start the season as the backup to Damien Harris, but Stephenson was able to tally 133 rushing attempts and 14 receptions last year with only two of those touches coming in the first four games of the season. Stevenson had a major role on offense down the stretch, an opening made possible by Harris having a hamstring injury. Harris has missed eight games over the last two years and if he misses more time this year, Stevenson may be in a position to claim the starting job. That is a big reason that Chalk (The Undroppables) named him as a Bonus Mid-Round Breakout in 11 Undervalued Late-Round Draft Day Steals (2022 Fantasy Football).

The Patriots’ backfield can be very frustrating, Bill Belichick has a history of splitting carries and targets based on situational football that makes a running back a star one week and played sparingly the next week. What I love about Stevenson is that his ADP of RB37 is lower than his 36th ranking last year. He is also only the 93rd-ranked overall player. It seems hard to believe Stevenson will have fewer touches in 2022 than he had in 2021 and the upside is enormous for a team that loves to run the football. He also has upside with his receiving skills for a team that likes to throw to running backs, but Belichick does not have a player that is certain to have that role headed into the season with James White banged up.

RB6 Tier

Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN) – There are not a lot of starters to be found at this point in the fantasy draft, but Mattison is one of the best backups in the league. In the five games where he has had at least 20 carries filling in for Dalvin Cook, he has tallied 114 carries for 522 yards, 22 receptions for 207 yards, and four touchdowns.

Cook is only 27 years old, but he has played in only 56 of a possible 81 regular-season games and he has missed eight games over the last three seasons. Mattison is an RB1 in any game that Cook is not active. Cook managers need to make sure they select Mattison as a handcuff and if they do not, other fantasy managers would be insane to not take Mattison as the 41st-ranked running back and 117th overall player. The upside is worth the wasted roster spot given Cook’s injury history and Mattison’s dominance filling in for Cook the last couple of seasons.

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) – There is no debate that the Houston backfield is crowded. Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead currently project higher on the depth chart than Pierce, but this is likely another rebuilding year as they try to figure out if their future is with second-year QB Davis Mills or if that future quarterback will come from the 2023 NFL Draft. Mack and Burkhead are both playing on one-year deals and the Texans at some point are going to need to see if the 119 touches, 790 yards and 16 touchdowns that Pierce produced at Florida in 2021 are going to translate into the NFL or if they need to look for a running back in the 2023 offseason.

The great thing for Pierce is that he is only the 49th-ranked fantasy running back and 137th overall player in fantasy leagues. He is a player that you can stash on the bench late in fantasy drafts for depth and end up with a starting running back later in the year. If he impresses in training camp, he may carve out a significant role sooner rather than later. Mack and Burkhead probably do not factor into the Texans’ 2023 plans based on their contracts. They may have fantasy roles early in the season, but Pierce is the running back on this roster with the most upside in 2022 and beyond.

RB7 Tier

Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL) – There is not much hype surrounding Cordarrelle Patterson heading into the 2022 season. Patterson averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game in his first 10 games of the season. He dropped to 7.2 fantasy points per game in the final six games of the season. There are rumors that he could see a reduced workload this season or that he could see more time at wide receiver. That has led to an overall ranking of 94 for a player that was the ninth-ranked fantasy running back and the 43rd-ranked overall player in 2021.

Allgeier should have a significant role this year. He is currently behind only Patterson on the depth chart. Patterson’s career high in rushing attempts is 153 and he turned 31 years old back in March. The Falcons’ offense could be a mess with Marcus Mariota under center, but Desmond Ridder could be an intriguing rookie if Mariota is not able to keep his job and the Falcons would likely give Allgeier a long look later in the season if they are out of contention early. Allgeier is the type of player that could end up being a steal as the 162nd overall player and the 56th-ranked running back.

Rachaad White (RB – TB) – Leonard Fournette is probably going to be the bellcow back in 2021, but he turned 27 years old this year and he has an injury history. He also did himself no favors by showing up to minicamp at 260 pounds. That is an excellent way for the coaching staff to start thinking about younger options. If Fournette ends up missing time in the regular season, Ronald Jones II is no longer there to step in as the starter. White is already second on the depth chart, which is telling seeing as both Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard were on the team last year and White is only a rookie.

There are reports that Bernard is likely to be released at some point, so it appears that if Fournette were to miss time, White is the most likely to step into his place. White is very inexpensive as the 167th-ranked player and 58th-ranked running back this year. He is a player that you could snag at the end of a fantasy draft and be playing regularly by October.

Zamir White (RB – LV) – Josh McDaniels spent a lot of time in New England and the Patriots employed several running backs during his tenure there. I think it is pretty easy to tell which running back fits into their plans and which ones do not. Josh Jacobs was a first-round pick in 2019 by the previous regime and he had his rookie option declined. Kenyan Drake was signed by the previous regime and he is a free agent at the end of the year. Brandon Bolden signed a two-year contract that is essentially a one-year contract with only $625K in dead cap money for the 2023 season. He was a cheap veteran option that knows this system having played for McDaniels in New England when he was the offensive coordinator there.

That leaves White, who was taken in the fourth round by this coaching staff. There are already rumblings that the Raiders like him the best out of all their running backs and Maurice Jones-Drew has been on record for the NFL Network saying that White fits their scheme the best. It is possible that White is not ready to play this year and that the Raiders ride it out with Jacobs and Drake one last year before going with White in 2023, but I think White is a steal as the 222nd-ranked player and 66th-ranked running back. He could have a massive role in 2022 if he can seize the opportunity.

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Derek Lofland is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @DerekLofland.