As the sun sets on perhaps the most dramatic offseason in NFL history, draft season is fully on the horizon. For many of us degenerates, draft season has been in full swing since Cooper Kupp put a stamp on his brilliant season in the Super Bowl. As such, we already have a valuable set of ADP data to work with as training camp gets underway.
Throughout camp, we will get plenty of news reports and updates that could shift a player’s ADP in either direction. Some reports will be worthy of such a shift, while others could be categorized as coach speak that becomes over-analyzed by the circling sharks as if a quote were a drop of blood in the otherwise clear ocean water. Of course, I’m not excluding myself from this hypothetical deep blue sea. How else will we find the next late-round gem if we aren’t grinding the training camp blurbs with an eye for a significant hint?
Finding potential flaws in the ADP market and locking in on players whose talent we like is a start but drafting the eventual WR45 at WR50 isn’t what will win you your league. Yes, we should be looking for those players, but we want upside to go along with them, especially the later we get into the draft. Players selected in the last few rounds are generally easier to cut for a significant waiver wire acquisition if they don’t pan out. So why not play for upside?
Keep reading to find the WRs you should target in the later rounds of your draft. Since it’s debatable when exactly a round becomes “late,” we’ll run through various players who may fit into the label.
Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG) | ADP 114 / WR48
If you’ve been following my work, this comes as no surprise. Kadarius Toney is my favorite value in fantasy football right now and one of my picks for a breakout season. He checks all the boxes that a breakout WR should, while much of the narrative he’s faced can be traced back to the circling sharks.
Most analysts and fans did not believe he should have been a first-round NFL Draft pick, but he was coveted in the first round by at least two teams that we know of. This offseason, there were reports that he didn’t know the playbook and that the Giants were looking to trade him. I can’t confirm the validity of those reports, but Joe Schoen has publicly praised Toney, both before and after the trade rumors. New Head Coach Brian Daboll has done the same, even exchanging text messages and music with the WR.
None of the above perceived red flags give me any reluctance in targeting Toney. The only thing that concerns me is the injury history. But when he’s been on the field, he’s been electric. As a rookie, Toney finished 17th in yards per route run with 2.13, seventh in targets per route run with 29% and sixth in targets per snap with 19.1%. These numbers are significant because they show us how much the player was utilized when he was on the field, rather than counting the snaps in which he was not on the field. They’re often indicative of a breakout player because they tell us how invested the team was in getting the player involved in the offense.
We knew that Toney was full of burst and acceleration, but his route running was a question mark as he entered the NFL. After one season, it’s fair to say that Toney turned the weakness into a relative strength.
Trevon Diggs trying to play press on Kadarius Toney was funny — Toney embarrasses him, twisting, turning, not a chance at stopping him.
The break of the route where he opens his hips and changes direction is the best separation creator I've seen this year from a NYG WR. pic.twitter.com/sAAevPc661
— Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) October 12, 2021
Toney now gets one of the most significant coaching/schematic upgrades in the NFL, going from Jason Garrett calling the plays to Daboll. We don’t know for sure how Daboll will perform as the man in charge, but we know he can get the most out of his offense. Obviously, that’s a big deal for Toney, especially considering the Giants don’t have a clear WR1 on the roster. Kenny Golladay, who is a good value in his own right at WR57, hasn’t lived up to his contract. Wan’Dale Robinson is not a threat to Toney, despite the narrative that his selection was a knock against Toney. “Robinson was lining up almost exclusively in the slot, which will be his long-term role in the offense,” Zack Rosenblatt observed during Giants minicamp. The Robinson selection was a knock against Sterling Shepherd and his injury history, not Toney.
The fake news surrounding Toney has allowed his ADP to be one of the biggest mistakes other fantasy managers are making. Don’t miss out on the value we’re getting in this dynamic playmaker.
Christian Kirk (WR – JAX) | ADP 103 / WR43
It can be debated whether Christian Kirk qualifies as a “late round” WR as he’s currently being drafted in the ninth round of fantasy football drafts. As I alluded to, there are varying definitions of this term, with some defining it as the 10th round and beyond, while others say that anybody outside the top 100 is a late-round pick. No matter how you slice it, Kirk is undervalued.
Kirk has been slapped with the “sleeper” tag so many times he’s in danger of becoming its poster child, but we may be at the point where he’s become a post-hype sleeper. In the last three years following his rookie season, Kirk has sported ADPs on WR36 in 2019, WR47 in 2020, and WR44 in 2021. He’s nearly right where he’s gone the last couple of seasons, despite the likelihood that he will serve as the Jaguars’ WR1. Part of the hesitation to draft Kirk earlier is likely due to the massive bag he got from the Jags, which was highly criticized throughout the NFL news cycle. In terms of fantasy football, however, it’s a good sign that Jacksonville was willing to open the checkbook for Kirk. The team needed to pair Trevor Lawrence with a good, young WR, and a fast seam stretcher out of the slot will become Lawrence’s best friend.
Kirk’s versatility will allow him to play that role out of the slot and line up wide, running various routes. Kirk is one of 10 players with at least five touchdown receptions of 50 yards or more since he entered the league in 2018, as Blair Andrews of Rotoviz points out. Andrews also notes that Kirk became very efficient in underneath routes last season.
Also, working in Kirk’s benefit is the potential leap of Lawrence and pairing with Doug Pederson. In Philadelphia, Pederson squeezed some of Nelson Agholor‘s best football out of him in 2017 and 2018. In my opinion, Kirk is a better player than Agholor, but the two share many resemblances and could work in similar fashions within Pederson’s offense.
The market seems to be fatigued on the letdowns suffered at the hands of Kirk, but the timing is right for the 25-year-old to truly hit his stride and become Lawrence’s go-to option in the passing game.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU) | ADP 281 / WR90
The most jaw-dropping ADP on the list, and potentially in all of fantasy football, is Nico Collins going at 281 overall. Tight end and teammate Brevin Jordan, also going into his second season, is being drafted one spot ahead of Collins – and that’s not a TE premium ADP, either. Collins didn’t necessarily put himself on the map as a rookie, but he didn’t take himself off it after his third-round draft selection.
As a rookie, Collins found the endzone once while tallying 446 receiving yards. His advanced metrics don’t stand out. I get that, so I’m not crowning him as the next fantasy football MVP. Yet, he boasts significant upside in the Texans’ offense, whose QB is probably better than you think. They will often be trailing and haven’t provided much optimism in the ground game. Collins figures to be the primary beneficiary of an inflated pass-to-run ratio as the No. 2 WR in the offense. Brandin Cooks will get his, but the Texans are thin after the two of them.
Even without the eye-popping stats and metrics from last season, Collins registered a strong true catch rate (89.2%) and contested catch rate (36.8%) on a scattered and inconsistent allotment of snaps. He’s not a separator, which is a minus on the report card, but he doesn’t necessarily need that tool to be the sharpest in his bag. His 6’4″ 215-pound frame allows him to control the space around him, and his 97th percentile arm length of 34 1/8″ gives him an edge in contested catches.
We will likely need to see a leap from Collins as a separator for his lottery ticket to near the jackpot level. Still, even marginal improvements in that category could lead him to a breakout season in an expanded role. At 281st overall, your third-string tight end can wait in favor of a potential WR2/3.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – KC) | ADP 135 / WR55
With Tyreek Hill now playing his home games in South Beach, it’s tough to know which Chiefs WR will step up and become “the guy,” or if any of them will. Travis Kelce is essentially their WR1, but Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense are too good for the WR group to fail. Admittedly, Skyy Moore is intriguing as a prospect and could explode in this offense, but it might take some time for the Western Michigan standout to adapt to the NFL level. JuJu Smith-Schuster could certainly recapture some of his early-career magic in this offense, but he thrives on targets out of the slot and over the middle of the field, which is Kelce’s game.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) is the best fit and is being drafted after Smith-Schuster and Moore. According to Nate Taylor of The Athletic, MVS and Mahomes displayed a “strong connection” early in the offseason. Taylor doubled down recently, saying that MVS was the team’s “best receiver” during offseason programs. The Chiefs offense has a vacated deep-threat role that has MVS’s name all over it.
Don’t get it twisted; he’s not Tyreek Hill, but MVS is a terrific deep threat with more size than Hill and seems to have an early connection with the former MVP.
Why is the Chiefs WR1 being drafted as the…
🫣 WR54 in best ball
😬 WR60 in redraft
🥴 WR71 in dynasty🤨⁉️
— The Fantasy Football Chad (@tweetsbychad) June 12, 2022
DeVante Parker (WR – NEP) | ADP 148 / WR58
For the sake of transparency, I will say that I could be described as a “DeVante Parker truther” over the past few seasons. But I didn’t invest in the Louisville products stock until the offseason going into 2019, and it paid off to the tune of a WR1 finish. Although he’s unlikely ever to hit that ceiling again, he should find himself on the field for most snaps as the presumptive WR1 in New England, a role they’ve been trying to fill even before the failed N’Keal Harry experiment.
The Patriots’ offense has lacked a big-bodied, contested catch receiver since the beginning of time, or so it seems. Parker will fill that role, and Mac Jones will likely gravitate towards that skill set. This is still a run-first offense, so it’s doubtful we’ll see Parker go nuclear, but he can be a strong red zone threat for the young QB. Mike Tannenbaum, who drafted Parker in Miami, believes he’s a “very good starting NFL receiver who can be scoring eight to 12 touchdowns and making contested catches.”
Hunter Henry caught nine touchdowns on 26 red zone targets last season, while Jakobi Meyers snagged two scores on 21 red zone targets. Parker, a superior contested catch receiver, will soak up many of those and could pay off nicely with the touchdown upside at his current price tag.
Robbie Anderson (WR – CAR) | ADP 217 / WR74
One season removed from a 1,000-yard season, Robbie Anderson is undrafted in many leagues. At 29 years old, it’s fair to wonder how much game he has left, but it’s also fair to give him a pass for last season. The Panthers finished 30th in yards and were bottom-five in passing yards and scoring. Baker Mayfield may not be the savior for the Panthers or Matt Rhule, but he is a significant upgrade over Sam Darnold.
Mayfield caught a lot of flak for how he played down the stretch last season, and rightfully so, but it’s clear he wasn’t healthy. The reality is that Mayfield has played well when healthy. The ship has likely sailed on his potential as an elite quarterback, but even average play at the position will go a long way for Anderson and company. Despite last season’s struggles, Mayfield finished the season eighth overall in air yards per attempt. In 2020, before the torn labrum, Mayfield sported the sixth-best completion percentage on deep pass attempts at 46.6%, as laid out by Connor Darnold of Playerprofiler. Darnold is one of the worst deep-ball passers in the NFL, while Mayfield is not afraid to air it out, jiving with Anderson’s strengths.
Between last season and his rookie year in 2016, Anderson has averaged nearly 900 yards per season, all with poor QB play. We’re counting on some things to go right in Carolina for Anderson, which has been a tough bet to make lately. Yet, with a price tag of WR74, it’s worth the price of admission.
Alec Pierce (WR – IND) | ADP 181 / WR66
The Colts’ second-round pick has become somewhat of a forgotten man after becoming the 12th WR selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. Of course, all the first-rounders have gotten far more love than Alec Pierce, but the landing spots for Christian Watson and Moore have created more hype for them than Pierce, while George Pickens just appears to be a hot name.
Indianapolis is obviously committed to running the football with their young horse, Jonathan Taylor, but they went and got Matt Ryan to upgrade the passing offense. Say what you will about Ryan, but he’s a massive upgrade at the position and is likely to find himself a bounce-back season with better surroundings. A 6’3″ 211-pound receiver with 4.41 speed should not be overlooked – especially as the presumptive starter opposite of Michael Pittman in a good offense. The WR room is thin after Pittman and Pierce, so the WR should have ample opportunities to earn the trust of Ryan and soar above his current ADP.
D.J. Chark (WR – DET) | ADP 162 / WR62
The former Jaguar has fallen off the radar after his 1,008-yard, eight-touchdown season in 2019, followed by a 706-yard, five-touchdown season. Like many others on this list, D.J. Chark offers a size and speed combination on the outside that his team lacked. Color me skeptical of Amon-Ra St. Brown repeating his late-season surge from last year. He’s going as WR27, which is fair, but I’m not buying at that price. D’Andre Swift will eat up targets, as will T.J. Hockenson. But those will primarily be lower ADOT targets, affecting St. Brown more than Chark.
I’m a big fan of Jameson Williams, but he’s likely to start the season on the PUP list and will take time to get up to speed. I have concerns with Jared Goff, but that’s more than baked into Chark’s price tag. The Lions paid Chark $10 million; they have plans for him. Chark himself will be incredibly motivated to prove he can stay healthy and be that 1,000-yard receiver yet again as he hits free agency for the second consecutive year.
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Chad Workman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from him, check out his Twitter at @tweetsbychad.
