Perfect Fantasy Football Draft: Strategy, Advice & Targets (2026)

The 2026 NFL fantasy football season will be here before you know it, so you need to be prepared for your fantasy football draft. Of course, there’s no better way to do that than by practicing with our free fantasy football mock draft simulator.

But beyond our tools, we will have you covered throughout the draft prep season with everything we offer.

The goal of every fantasy football manager is to complete the perfect draft. Impossible, you say? Let’s call it a stretch goal and strive for fantasy football glory.

Here’s my perfect 2026 fantasy football draft (at least the June version).

For this exercise, I also wanted to go beyond just round-by-round roster building.

So, I took the most up-to-date best-ball ADP and generated custom salary-cap values based on a 15-man $200 budget using the FantasyPros Cheat Sheet Creator. The output? Examples of my “perfectly drafted teams” are based on several different approaches.

Let’s cook (without going over the $200 full lineup budget). Rosters are at the bottom of the article.

• Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• 2026 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Perfect Fantasy Football Draft: Strategy, Advice & Targets

Approach to Round 1

Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson? I don’t think you can really go wrong here if you are lucky enough to land a top-2 pick. I’ve got Gibbs ranked ahead of Robinson because I have much more faith generally in backing the 2026 Detroit Lions than the 2026 Atlanta Falcons. The Lions also have the league’s easiest schedule this season.

An early first-round back sets you up well for a Hero RB build, which is the strategy I typically follow before entering any draft. You’ve got one RB spot dialed in, and the other spot can be filled by the rotating carousel of remaining running backs on your roster.

I believe the gold standard approach of selecting a running back with your first- or second-round pick has not changed. If anything, the recent RB renaissance has re-emphasized this approach. Even though it was not too long ago, the “trend” was to draft wide receivers and go Zero RB.

NFL teams have relied more on their rushing games to attack the new wave of NFL defenses (curse you two-high safeties). Hence, we are seeing more RBs than WRs drafted in the first two rounds of 2026 fantasy football drafts, after the inverse held true the last couple of years. But with two straight years of strong RB production (especially at the top), the market has adjusted.

• Five RBs outscored every WR not named Ja’Marr Chase in 2024 in half-PPR.
• Four RBs outscored every WR in 2025.

Now, for five straight seasons, fewer wideouts have finished inside the top 12 versus RBs.

• In 2025, it was 7-4. Inside the top 10, just 3 WRs.
• In 2024, it was 8-4 overall. Inside the top 7, it was 5-2.
• In the last four seasons, only seven wide receivers have finished inside the top eight of overall scoring.

Some wide receivers are being drafted early who will be outscored by running backs selected after them. Again, to be clear, it’s less likely in PPR than in half-PPR.

Round 1 June draft prices have a 50/50 split between RBs and WRs, but the receivers have the slight edge, 6-4, inside the top-10. The RBs also make up the majority of early second-round picks.

RB scoring edge is real, but it’s now being fully priced into the cost of acquisition.

Keep in mind that RBs who see work as both receivers/rushers score the most points. These profiles are still the drivers behind fantasy-winning teams, so you need to get your talented studs early, since the backs who score the most points are drafted based on average draft position (ADP) data. The longer you wait, the odds of landing a true Hero RB diminish.

Draft running backs in the early rounds that you think can be league-winners and true difference-makers. You’re not looking for floor or value this early on. Shoot for the moon or punt running back down the road. You’d be surprised how easy it is to fill your fantasy RB2 slot.

And even though I still wasn’t aggressive enough in drafting RBs early last year, I fully acknowledged that the tide was shifting in their direction.

We have a strong, diverse, hungry, and young crop of running backs in the player pool.

Solidifying at least one top back early also helps you avoid reaching for running backs in the dreaded RB Dead Zone (RB2 range), where your primary focus should be drafting wide receivers poised for significant leaps in 2025 and/or elite quarterbacks/tight ends.

Because all RB prices are rising, you need to be careful not to overpay for the wrong archetype. It’s important to identify backs that can stand out from the crowd. If you are going to take a running back early, you can’t have any reservations about their upside. If you do, you are better off waiting for running backs with similar median projections at much better prices.

Especially considering wide receivers in full PPR can score a lot of points. And the top elite tier at the position looks primed to stake its claim — I will divulge more later.

After the consensus top 2 RBs, No. 3 is my WR1, Ja’Marr Chase.

And what’s great about taking Chase inside the top 3 is that you don’t need to completely forego selecting a running back with high-end upside. You still have a chance to select someone of that ilk in Round 2 – although the talent does start to dry up a tad around that 2-3 turn.

All in all, I won’t go into every single one of my top 12 overall rankings.

But long story short – I think you are better off pulling up RBs closer from the top of Round 1. Alternatively, selecting a draft slot in the back end of Round 1 (if you cannot acquire a top-3 pick) nets you a combination of Justin Jefferson, James Cook, Ashton Jeanty, Chase Brown, Omarion Hampton, Kenneth Walker, Drake London and/or A.J. Brown. Love these types of starts if I can’t pick inside the top 4 (Gibbs, Bijan, Chase, and Nacua)

But I think the most important takeaway is to leave the top 3 rounds of your fantasy football draft with at least one RB.

Trust in the hero RB. And trust in the hero WR.

I think in an ideal world, you’d get two shots on net at an elite RB season and an elite WR season. Or two shots on the same position if the draft falls in a certain way.

I want two elite players, regardless of their position, with my first two picks. If the board dictates that there are two wide receivers, one running back, and one wide receiver/one tight end, etc., so be it.

Make sure you have tiers in your fantasy football cheat sheet. Create your own custom cheat sheet with this link.

There’s real, durable separation among the top-6 WRs — meaning if you don’t get one in Rounds 1–2, you can’t easily replicate that individual’s production. Prioritize locking in an elite WR talent if the draft room is RB hungry. Or just in general, because the numbers suggest drafting a truly elite fantasy WR season can be worth it.

In 2024, wideouts ranked 6th to 21st, fluctuating between 14.7-15.0 and 12.1-12.5 PPG. Receivers from 22nd to 46th score between 12 and 9.5-9.0 PPG. Last year, the top 5 (Puka Nacua, JSN, ARSB, Ja’Marr, Pickens) averaged 16.6 PPG with a floor of 14.4. Then there’s an immediate drop into the mushy middle. Ranks 6–21 span 9.6–14.0 PPG — a 4.4-point range across 16 players. But the band from ranks 13–36 is even more compressed, clustering between 8.4 and 12.1 PPG. That’s 24 players separated by less than 4 points per game. The “WR2” label is becoming fiction at that point — it’s just one giant interchangeable tier. The low-end “WR2” then bleeds into WR4 territory.

Because I believe RB is deep enough to wait—slightly. The position has elite options that you shouldn’t pass on, but there are still very strong options much further down into Round 3.

That said, the deadline isn’t Round 2; it’s Round 3. If the early boards push you WR-WR or WR-TE, that’s fine, because I genuinely like the Round 3 RB tier (Breece Hall, Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne) as smash picks in their own right. So the real rule is: do not leave Round 3 without a running back you believe can be a difference-maker.

In Rounds 1–2 (outside the top-3), I think I slightly lean top-4 WR ≥ elite RB > elite TE (Brock Bowers specifically). Spend your premium picks where the cliff is steepest, and separation is real — top WRs and the one elite TE — and exploit RBs’ depth in Rounds 2-4. Therefore, I don’t necessarily feel the need to double-tap RB to start my draft, because that doesn’t give me access to one of these uber-talented WRs (my top-4 being Chase, Nacua, JSN, and Amon-Ra St. Brown).

Justin Jefferson has an elite ceiling, but we just need to get the quarterback play with Kyler Murray.

CeeDee Lamb also deserves mention here (although his ceiling did take a hit last year with George Pickens).

And AJB WR1 szn? I don’t need to be persuaded.

WR1 season incoming for AJ Brown ???? @AndrewErickson_ pic.twitter.com/JEGCVb2O0z

— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) June 4, 2026

If you want top-5 WR fantasy football production, you have to pay the premium.

Just be sure you are indeed drafting a WR with a path to an elite season.

Six of the last seven No. 1 overall wide receivers finished first in the NFL in red-zone targets. But 2025 was the year that broke the streak. Puka Nacua finished as the WR1 overall and in points per game (PPG), narrowly beating out Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But neither was a red-zone monster. Davante Adams tied Amon-Ra St. Brown with a league-high 32 red-zone targets in the regular season. Adams’ red-zone usage was absurd. His 2.3 red-zone targets per game lead all players. His 27 end-zone targets were nine more than the next closest pass-catchers (Trey McBride/George Pickens). St. Brown now has two straight seasons with 31+ red-zone targets.

How did Nacua and Smith-Njigba perform at such a high level despite modest touchdown totals (10)? Absurd efficiency and volume. The Seahawks superstar commanded a ridiculous 34% target share and averaged 3.7 yards per route run. Nacua was at a 28% target share with 3.8 yards per route run. Zay Flowers finished third with 2.53 yards per route run (including the postseason). Flowers was the only other wideout in 2025 to post a 28% target share and at least a 2.5-yard-per-route-run mark.

Only four other players have accomplished this feat of more than three yards per route run since 2017: Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Julio Jones and Nico Collins. Nacua did it in 2024 as well.

Smith-Njigba earned an elite opportunity for a player who had already broken out the year before. How could we have known (even without hindsight) that it was indeed an elite opportunity in Seattle? Vacated targets and air yards.

Seattle entered the offseason first in available air yards share and second in target share. He was first in both those categories (raw counting).

I’ve used 4for4’s available targets and air yards tracker over the past few years, while also adding some extra elements to the equation (such as vacated routes and red-zone targets).

It’s not a perfect science (since bad players don’t tend to command targets over a large enough sample size), but we know the high-end fantasy football ceilings are the perfect marriage of talent, usage, and opportunity.

Other thoughts while browsing the red-zone chart:

• Marvin Harrison Jr. had more end-zone targets (14) than red-zone targets (10). He only caught four of them for touchdowns.
• Ladd McConkey (12) and Tetairoa McMillan(12) also drew double-digit end-zone targets.

Aside from those few stat nuggets, I’d be surprised if the 2026 WR1 overall doesn’t lead all wideouts in red-zone targets. Rashee Rice is an interesting name to note, given how much he was targeted in the red zone this past season.

Rice finished in the top five in PPG. He ranked seventh overall in red-zone targets over eight games. Given that his draft price will be reduced due to his off-field issues and the injured quarterback, Rice could easily be a league winner and dark-horse WR1 overall candidate in 2026. Or he could be a colossal bust.

Nacua could finish as the WR1 overall again if Adams loses his vice grip on the red-zone targets in the Rams’ offense. Ja’Marr Chase also has an easy case with a healthy Joe Burrow.

Christian Watson – fresh off getting PAID – is on an offense that is 5th in vacated air yards share and 4th in vacated target share (375) with Romeo Doubs gone in free agency. Tucker Kraft is coming off a torn ACL, which could further open the red-zone target floodgates for Watson.

Early-Round Players to Target

• Ja’Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs

Mid-Round Players to Target

• Amon-Ra St. Brown, James Cook, Jonathan Taylor

Late-Round Players to Target

• Ashton Jeanty, Chase Brown, Justin Jefferson

Approach to Round 2

Last year, this draft slot was the Drake London sweet spot. And oh baby, we were so close to hitting massively. But perhaps just a year is too early.

The Falcons’ No. 1 WR was on a heater before his injury (first nine games), ranking as the WR3 in PPG (16.3). In his first 14 games with Michael Penix Jr. over the last two seasons, London nearly eclipsed 20 fantasy football PPG in full PPR (nearly 92 receiving yards and 11 targets per game). Elite-level numbers.

This year, it might be more of the Brock Bowers sweet spot.

When I ran some of my “perfect” draft simulations based on my 2026 overall rankings, the best roster featured Bowers as an early-round TE investment. At the bottom of the article, I’ve filled out more of the rosters based on each strategy and my preferred targets.

Ideally, this works in conjunction with a late Round 1 RB (such as James Cook or Chase Brown) – but it’s not a requirement by any means. And Bowers is providing a different type of edge, like an elite-level WR, just at tight end.

An early Bowers pick buys a genuine, every-week positional edge your leaguemates can’t easily replicate — or you punt entirely and stream. Anything in between is the worst of both worlds. Decide elite-or-punt before the draft; don’t get stuck paying mid-money for a mediocre TE.

Bowers is projected for 240 PPR points (same as George Pickens), per Mike Clay’s 2026 projections.

Through two rounds, I’ve cited the advantages of both elite RB/WR starts. All in all, I think both are extremely viable – and I think that puts fantasy football managers in a great position to go BPA.

One way to think about the choice is that the WR-first start has the better floor and median — it builds the strongest week-to-week roster because the supporting cast generally stays more intact. The elite-RB start (and especially the elite-RB + Bowers double-dip) is the ceiling play: you’re paying a certainty premium for a league-winning anchor and accepting a thinner cast, betting that top-end RB scoring data will carry you to a title rather than just the playoffs. Neither is wrong. Pick based on whether you’re drafting for median outcomes or for championship equity (which can very much depend on format in best ball versus redraft, advance rates, etc.).

But I can’t help but think that, even though RBs tend to score more, WRs might offer better value at the 1-2 turn. If you hit on that truly elite WR and nail the RBs in the next two rounds, you are cooking with gas.

The best way I can frame this is the WR-first build has the better floor and median with RBs inviting more injury risk; whereas the elite-RB build has the better ceiling and is the bet you make to win it all, not to make the playoffs.

Pros and cons to both strategies, which require you to measure your own risk tolerance.

And I can’t help but think there’s a micro advantage to zigging a bit while others are zagging HARD toward early RB starts. Because the hunger for RBs is so real, higher-ranked WRs will fall more. There’s your value proposition.

Early-Round Players to Target

• Drake London, Brock Bowers

Mid-Round Players to Target

• Omarion Hampton, Kenneth Walker

Late-Round Players to Target

• A.J. Brown, Javonte Williams

Approach to Round 3

Round 3 is where we have typically seen the first elite quarterbacks come off the board.

I usually don’t follow this. Being the first to draft a quarterback doesn’t always grant you the highest return on investment (ROI).

Value is still the name of the game when it comes to quarterbacks, so I stress a pseudo-late-round “elite” quarterback strategy. Essentially, getting the last or second-to-last quarterback with top-tier upside to capitalize on value.

Of course, this will change based on where quarterbacks fall in ADP, but rounds 4-6 are the more appropriate range. Round 4 is traditionally the earliest I’d even consider an elite fantasy football quarterback.

But unless they fall, I am almost 100% going to wait longer at the quarterback position.

Also, the RBs in this range still have a ton of upside – Breece Hall, Javonte Williams and Travis Etienne. All smash picks in Round 3, in my opinion. I think this range is better than it was last season.

This approach makes staying fluid and flexible for the next few rounds much easier. It’s important to get exposure to at least one running back in the first two rounds (or to a similar caliber in Rounds 3/4) because the talent pool starts to fall off toward the end of Round 3 and into Round 4.

To be direct about the new rule: Round 3 is the hard deadline. I like Hall, Javonte, and Etienne enough that I’m happy taking my first RB here — but I am not leaving this round without one.

Essentially, you almost run out of reliable Hero RB targets before you get more replaceable production.

Early-Round Players to Target

• Breece Hall, Javonte Williams

Mid-Round Players to Target

• Rashee Rice, DeVonta Smith

Late-Round Players to Target

• Zay Flowers, Colston Loveland

Approach to Round 4

I really don’t love the RB going in this range. It’s the middle-to-back-end fantasy football RB tier, which typically doesn’t always produce the best results.

A lot of these RBs have baggage or question marks – so I think it might be wise to address other positions instead, such as WR, where I feel there’s a bit more certainty.

Early-Round Players to Target

• Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan

Mid-Round Players to Target

• Garrett Wilson, Ladd McConkey

Late-Round Players to Target

• Terry McLaurin, Jaylen Waddle

Approach to Round 5

A quick note before the middle rounds: your opening branch should tilt toward what you prioritize here.

• If you opened RB heavy: you’ve banked the scarce position — now hammer WR in Rounds 4–6, because the receiver room dries up fast and you can’t make it up late.
• If you opened WR-WR: get your RB-by-Round-3 pick in (Hall / Javonte / Etienne), then return to WR value and your first RB breakout target in the RB20–RB38 range around Round 7.
• If you opened RB + Bowers, you’ve spent at TE, so your middle rounds are pure RB than WR depth — prioritizing value WRs after passing on any projectable elite option

At the start of the middle rounds of fantasy football drafting, you must come prepared with an optimal, flexible approach. Following up on a strong start is critical to your success. The player pool isn’t as strong as at the beginning of the draft, but the difference in hitting on the right guys in this range can make or break your roster.

Don’t try to be perfect; get as many shots on net as you can.

Four rounds deep, you have already drafted a good chunk of your team. This is your core. Your strategy may differ slightly depending on the foundation you built during the early portion of your draft. Ergo, if you already roster three strong running backs for some reason (or at least ones you spent high draft capital on), there’s virtually no need to address the position in any capacity. Depth, especially in leagues where you have access to the waiver wire, is often overrated in fantasy football.

The overarching approach to the middle rounds remains largely static, regardless of what you have already done. The focus is still on drafting the best player available. Too often, drafters make the mistake of drafting for need in the middle rounds, when the priority should be to fill your roster with as many potential level jumpers or league winners as humanly possible.

Focus on drafting players that have difference-making upside in their range of outcomes.

The name of the game with wide receivers is to scoop up value in the middle-to-later portions of drafts, with the position counting for the biggest part of your roster in leagues that require you to start three receivers. Take advantage of wideouts who fall in ADP, while other teams “reach” on running backs they think they need. The same goes for the reverse narrative. Take advantage of backs that fall in ADP while others reach for subpar wide receivers they think they need.

You will be shocked by how quickly the wide receiver position dries up, despite the false narrative that it is deep every year (which is increasingly debunked year after year). It’s not deep. If anything, it’s extremely diluted outside the top, which makes it much more essential to draft the remaining wideouts early in the middle rounds. You’ll feel (and perform) much better knowing you aren’t trudging out wideouts ranked outside the top 40 as your weekly WR3.

We often see breakouts from Years 2 & 3 players, along with an annual 5th-year breakout.

Wide receivers in the middle rounds tend to take massive leaps and vastly outperform their ADP. Others crash and burn comically, but we just need one or two hits to achieve a net positive return.

When in doubt, keep drafting players who have breakout potential. Chances are, they won’t all hit… but all you need is one to hit big to reap the benefits.

Also draft rookie wide receivers. Aggressively.

The WR18-WR50 ADP range remains the richest pool for first-time WR1s.

Courtland Sutton, George Pickens, Zay Flowers, Jameson Williams, and Chris Olave were all in this range last year (WR18-WR34).

Gravitate toward the pass-catchers in a high-powered offense with some target ambiguity, rather than the guy with a more obvious high-end target floor in a bad offense. And do not shy away from the real-life No. 2 WRs… as these players often represent the best fantasy football values because their ADPs are almost always suppressed as they aren’t their team’s “No. 1 WR.”

But be wary that you need to be price-sensitive to these WR2s. For example, in 2023, the most expensive WR2s — Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins — failed to live up to expectations.

In 2024, Brandon Aiyuk, Cooper Kupp and Jaylen Waddle (again) were busts as the three most expensive WR2s.

In 2025, Marvin Harrison Jr. busted again as the secondary option in the Cardinals’ offense behind Trey McBride. And although it’s easy to say this in hindsight, WRs like CeeDee Lamb (whose target share only became genuinely contested after the George Pickens acquisition), Brian Thomas Jr., and Ladd McConkey weren’t the best receivers on their own teams.

Sensing a pattern? Drafting WRs who aren’t the No. 1 target on their own team, too highly, is a recipe for disaster.

But the majority of cheaper real-life WR2s by ADP (outside the top-24) were excellent value selections who drastically beat their ADPs, as alluded to earlier.

Some of my favorite wide receivers to target from Rounds 5-7 (picks 50-75) include Jaylen Waddle, Mike Evans, Christian Watson, Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson.

In 2026 drafts, some of the cheaper real-life No. 2 WRs/pass-catchers (outside top-24) include:

Jameson Williams, Rome Odunze, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jordyn Tyson, Parker Washington, Courtland Sutton, Makai Lemon, Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Michael Pittman Jr., Jordan Addison, Jakobi Meyers, Quentin Johnston, Ricky Pearsall, Josh Downs, Wan’Dale Robinson, Xavier Worthy, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Higgins and Khalil Shakir.

Make sure you are getting the real-life No. 2 WR discount. Because you should be, or else it’s bad business.

Round 5 Players to Target

• Jaylen Waddle
• Mike Evans
• Bhayshul Tuten
• Drake Maye

Approach to Round 6

Many of the elite quarterbacks will be off the board before this round. If you desire a quarterback, draft whichever top-tier passer, if any, remains. The opportunity cost of drafting an elite quarterback is so much better in Rounds 5-7 versus Rounds 2-4.

And as always, don’t feel pressured to draft a signal-caller if you are bullish on an RB/WR/TE because there are still plenty of great options in the following rounds.

Focus on players who could make major leaps based on archetype. Not necessarily their median projection. If a receiver in the middle rounds looks and smells cheap, they probably are. And the same goes if you feel they are overvalued.

Because inherently, the way receiver scoring is, those with higher ADPs are more difficult bets to return on their ADPs. They are preferred for a reason — upside arguments, etc. But there’s no denying you can always grab another wide receiver a round later who will probably meet or exceed the player before them in scoring.

However, you must acknowledge that you can’t keep punting on the position, as there is another cliff after the WR4 tier. Eventually, you need to compile points at the position, even if it’s a neutral or negative-EV selection at the time of drafting.

There’s a reason the “late-round receiver” strategy hasn’t caught on as much as its late-round counterparts. It does not work nearly as successfully as waiting at the other positions. And why is this? Two-fold. Wide receivers are just tough to project year to year because they are more dependent on their surroundings (quarterback, offensive line, etc.). And most leagues default to three starting receiver slots, with a fourth eligible in the Flex sport. High demand, low supply.

Be firm and concise in creating three or four tiers for receivers, with an elite tier (potential for top-five scoring), a pseudo-elite tier (just on the cusp of WR1 between 5-10 WR ranks), a top-20ish tier, and then a 21-48 range tier where you can pick your flavor. Based on your platform’s ADP, you can vary your receiver exposure within this range.

For me, the top four wideouts are clear as day. After that, I could see a lot of arguments for the next handful of WRs between Justin Jefferson, Drake London, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown.

Round 6 Players to Target

• Christian Watson
• Carnell Tate
• Jordyn Tyson

Approach to Round 7

Once you’ve got a plethora of breakout and staple wideouts to work with (after all, late-round wide receiver is not usually a winning formula), I now permit you to dive back into the running back pool before we enter the double-digit rounds.

I can guarantee you will feel better about overloading with receiver breakouts than settling for an RB2 because you have to in the first six rounds.

Because after wide receivers, breakout running backs are the next target in the middle rounds. Specifically, once the drafts enter the late RB2/early RB3 range (RB20-RB38) or running backs with a top-40 ADP.

That group has traditionally had the greatest hit rate for fantasy running backs.

And at least over the last two seasons, it’s been more RBs near the 40-ranked range.

Travis Etienne, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, J.K. Dobbins, Quinshon Judkins, Cam Skateboo, Javonte Williams, and Rhamondre Stevenson all went outside the top-30 RBs last season.

Meanwhile, the late teens to mid-20s bombed for the second straight season.

Here are some of my favorite RB targets in this range in 2026: RJ Harvey, Rico Dowdle, Blake Corum, J.K. Dobbins, Jonathon Brooks, and Rachaad White.

Identify running backs with the potential to see/possess goal-line roles in high-scoring offenses. Pinpointing a team’s primary red-zone back is an easy way to hit on a fantasy running back.

If you are low on the “starter,” you should naturally be higher on the No. 2 RB in the same backfield.

Target impending free agent running backs.

The biggest hits from 2022 include Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders and Jamaal Williams. In 2023, targeting impending FA RBs wasn’t as successful, but I wanted to see if this was a trend or more of an outlier. In 2024, we saw a ton of running backs on new teams hit in a big way after signing big contracts.

In 2025, Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne, Kenneth Gainwell and Rico Dowdle all hit ahead of free agency.

Notable running back free agents at the end of the 2026 season include:

• Chase Brown
• Jonathan Taylor
• Alvin Kamara
• D’Andre Swift
• Tony Pollard
• Aaron Jones
• Devin Singletary
• Jordan Mason
• Sean Tucker
• James Conner
• Rachaad White
• Isiah Pacheco
• Zach Charbonnet
• Tyjae Spears
• Tank Bigsby

Target running backs on quality offenses (cumulative offensive ADP deemed above average).

Aim for running backs on teams with no clear-cut starter — aka ambiguous backfields. This is where breakout running backs are often found.

Other major hitters were running backs who boasted pass-catching chops. Volume is and remains king. When in doubt, draft the guy who has a proven track record.

Bet on explosive backs who can make plays as receivers.

Bet against running backs on offenses that have not yet proven to be above average, while treading lightly on running backs who don’t have much job security.

With running backs, ask yourself: What would it take for RB “X” to lose the starting job?

Seriously. Do it.

Fade expensive early-season opportunities in favor of late-season production when the weeks and points become more critical in specific formats. You need to strike a balance between early and late-season production. Drafting the upside rookie early is fine, as long as you draft the dusty old veterans later on to backfill the weeks while the rookies ramp up.

Hitting on the right running back late can be the true difference-maker.

Round 7 Players to Target

• RJ Harvey
• Justin Herbert
• Rico Dowdle

Approach to Round 8

For the remaining onesie positions, you are once again playing the value game.

My favorite signal-callers to target from Rounds 8-plus include Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, and Malik Willis.

The same approach goes for the tight end position. By no means am I willing to draft a tight end in the middle rounds without elite upside. And again, they need to fall past their ADP. That’s why using tiered rankings is so critical to your success, as it helps you unearth draft values by preventing reaches.

Stay out of the middle at tight end as much as you can, unless you think the player can make the jump into the elite tier.

Round 8 Players to Target

• Makai Lemon
• Brock Purdy
• Michael Pittman Jr.

Round 9 Players to Target           

This round brought us Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chase Brown, and Brian Thomas Jr. in 2024.

Last year, it featured Drake Maye, Cam Skattebo, Javonte Williams and Colston Loveland.

This year? Here’s who I am honing in on:

• Ricky Pearsall
• Josh Downs
• George Kittle
• Jonathon Brooks
• Xavier Worthy

Round 10 Players to Target

• Rachaad White
• Isaiah Likely
• KC Concepcion

Fantasy Football Draft Day Decision Tree (Before Round 11)

Approach to the Double-Digit Rounds

You should be actively implementing “what if” thought exercises in the late rounds of your fantasy football drafts. Simply put, “if ‘X’ happens, what would that do to ‘X’ player’s value?”

Again, this is most seen from injuries, with players seeing spikes in production/value when a teammate goes down. Some players have that factored into their ADPs with injury-prone teammates, but others do not. And at the end of the day, it’s full-contact football.

We can’t always project when/if said injuries will happen (although I am very in on injury-level regression at the team level), but savvy drafters can stockpile the back of their drafts with talented players who are being discounted because of their situation.

When in doubt. Fade overhyped and great roles/situations. Buy the talent that falls. One is stickier than the other.

Don’t overvalue early-season opportunities versus talent. Just buy the dip when ADP is so suppressed due to the situation. And don’t forget the players who delivered worthwhile performances in the past when given opportunities. Being a proven asset in some capacity matters.

Players don’t always produce when teammates get hurt. Find those who step up when called upon, even in brief stints. These are the player archetypes you should target.

Don’t worry about what Player A’s role will be in Week 1 when you draft them in the late double digits. Chances are that doesn’t matter. Focus on their range of outcomes.

I also believe in another thought exercise of “He’s the discount version of Player X.” I find it very useful.

Players with defined roles that go extremely late can also be beneficial targets. The constant bombardment of “upside-centric” analysis makes these players not talked about enough. There’s an upside to playing an every-down role on an offense when heavily discounted. Particularly in deeper redraft formats or best ball, when you sometimes just need innings eaters. I know (base) ball.

Still, chasing the upside-centric dragon is not wrong. You want upside on your fantasy football teams. But some balance never hurts. Because “only-upside” players typically also have extremely shaky floors. And too many guys who fail to fire will leave your squad helpless.

Last note. Chase players projected for air yards and rookies. Air yards tell us how often a player is targeted downfield, which is part of the formula for spike weeks of fantasy production, particularly at wide receiver and tight end.

Some potential late-round options in 2026 drafts that commanded a high end of their team’s air yards (20% or higher per Fantasy Points data) in 2025 included:

Ricky Pearsall  (32%), Tre Tucker (29%), Adonai Mitchell (28%), Parker Washington (28%), Darnell Mooney (28%), Quentin Johnston (27%), Xavier Worthy (27%), Keon Coleman (24%), Calvin Austin (25%), Jalen Coker (24%) and Jayden Higgins (20%).

When it comes to rookies, you need to be aggressive in drafting them. This position is great for taking shots in the later rounds.

Their ADPs often fail to fully capture their upside. The ADP acts more like a hedge or median projection when first-year players of recent years are so much more boom-or-bust. They either hit big or flame out entirely. But it’s OK to miss.

They are lottery tickets that are frequently discounted outside the top 36. Take full advantage when they are cheap. They won’t all hit. But being overweight on rookies will net you in the green.

Keep in mind, rookie wide receiver roles often grow as the season progresses. That makes them the perfect backfill targets for drafting formats with prize structures heavily based on the final few weeks of the season. My favorite strategy is drafting veterans and rookie wide receivers from the same teams. It’s a very underrated strategy that helps you capture an immense upside. Also, helps increase the odds that you get at least one “hit” from each receiver group you draft.

Last year would have looked like this from some of the top guys:

• Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka
• Christian Watson, Matthew Golden
• Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins
• Rome Odunze, Luther Burden
• Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Parker Washington*
• Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Tre Harris
• Kyle Williams, Kayshon Boutte
• Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa
• Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant
• Calvin Ridley, Chimere Dike, Elic Ayomanor
• Deebo Samuel, Jaylin Lane
• Rashee Rice, Jalen Royals

*Worth noting that two years in a row, the most expensive Jaguars WR has been a poor pick.

Buying discounted rookie/veteran receivers because there’s only one other pass-catcher makes it easier for them to smash their ADPs.

If you missed out on a quality tight end in the early rounds, then chasing quantity with multiple guys in the late rounds is your new strategy. But, in all honesty, this “late-round tier” starts after the top-8 guys.

I don’t overextend for any of these tight ends because production will likely be negligible at best, so I draft toward the beginning of the tier rather than the end. Wait and take shots on multiple tight ends. Ideally, ones with either a path to receiving volume, an every-down role, and/or above-average athleticism.

My favorite late-round tight ends to target (outside the top eight) include George Kittle, Isaiah Likely, Greg Dulcich, Kenyon Sadiq and Chig Okonkwo.

My favorite late-round quarterback options include Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, and Malik Willis.

I discussed ad nauseam in previous best ball articles and perfect draft write-ups the advantage you can gain by drafting an elite tight end or quarterback early in your draft (especially in best ball). But chances are you aren’t doing both. Savvy drafters won’t let the elite one-sie positions go by too frequently.

There’s a chance you might need to address the position as the middle rounds kick off. The “safe” route is going with the quarterback. Expensive tight ends bust at such a higher rate, historically speaking.

Among the elite tier (the top-4 guys with top-60 ADPs), chances are one will bust (injury or not). And for every early-round tight end that hits, there’s a late-round tight end that dramatically surpasses their average draft position (ADP) every year. And while you wait for the production that never comes from some early-round tight ends, you miss out on the players breaking out on the waiver wire. The “sunk cost” fallacy. 

I’d also adjust my stance on avoiding late-round tight ends if you draft a stud early on. There’s a chance they might bust, so it’s good to have some insurance you feel good about. Also. Trade bait? You bet.

Focus your strategy on finding tight ends later to avoid this unfortunate outcome, and build a potential super team in the early rounds spearheaded by top-tier running backs, wide receivers, and quarterbacks.

As to what you need to look for in potential late-round tight ends — yards after the catch (YAC).

The YAC metric was one of the reasons why I have been so high on Tucker Kraft over the last two years.

The same “sunk-cost” fallacy can happen with the other “one” required position in quarterbacks.

There are so many options available with the late-round quarterback approach that you need to be very patient if you don’t grab a top-four guy earlier in the draft.

The early-season schedule is also key when following a late-round quarterback approach.

Signal-callers with a favorable schedule to start the year include

• Justin Herbert
• Brock Purdy
• Bryce Young
• Dak Prescott
• Jared Goff
• C.J. Stroud
• Trevor Lawrence
• Malik Willis
• Kyler Murray
• Geno Smith
• Sam Darnold
• Baker Mayfield

What matters when it comes to fantasy football QBs? Here’s what I try to consider the most.

• 20 PPG ceiling: Have they achieved an actual advantage in points per game scoring?
• Rushing matters. Looking to hit at least 30 rushing yards per game as an elite threshold.

Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, Marcus Mariota, and Kyler Murray – only Murray failed to crack the top 10 in fantasy points per dropback in 2024. Five finished inside the top-5 fantasy-scoring QBs on a per-dropback basis.

Among the eight QBs in 2023 that hit 30-plus rushing yards – Jackson, Fields, Hurts, Jones, Richardson, Joshua Dobbs, Allen, Murray – again, Murray failed to crack the top 10 in fantasy football points per dropback along with Jones/Dobbs. Five finished inside the top-6 fantasy-scoring QBs on a per-dropback basis.

Even in 2024, the mobile QBs reigned supreme.

Among the seven QBs in 2024 who hit 30-plus rushing yards – Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson, and Drake Maye – Murray and Maye, yet again, failed to crack the top 10 in fantasy points per dropback. But five finished inside the top-6 fantasy-scoring QBs on a per-dropback basis.

In 2025, nine QBs rushed for at least 30 yards/game. Patrick Mahomes, Daniels, Murray (yet again), Herbert, and Tyler Huntley ranked outside the top 10 in fantasy points per dropback.

Malik Willis led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback (1.13). Small sample size of 47 dropbacks. However, it was also very high (0.76) in 2024 (top-3).

Conversely, the biggest mistake that fantasy football gamers continue to make is over-evaluating non-elite rushing QBs. If you aggressively draft a fantasy QB (draft them highly), there should be a case for their rushing upside.

Among the top-10 quarterbacks last season in total points scored in 2022, eight rushed for at least 250 yards. In 2023, six of the top eight rushed for at least 240 yards. In 2024, 10 of the 13 highest-scoring fantasy football quarterbacks rushed for at least 300 yards while attempting 500+ passes.

In 2025, 10 of the top-14 scoring QBs rushed for at least 350 yards. 3 of the ones who didn’t attempt at least 575 pass attempts (all drafted outside the top-10 QBs in ADP).

Call it the 50-30 rule. Can quarterback “X” throw 500+ times and/or rush for 300 yards? Those are your top targets.

QBs who hit both 300 rushing yards and 500 passing attempts in 2025 included: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes. Maye was eight passes short of 500 (492).

Brock Purdy, Shedeur Sanders, and Tyler Shough would also come close to qualifying if they played more games.

Hitting that 300-yard rushing total (17.6 yards per game) is a sweet spot for QBs. Adds just enough to their bottom line.

In Mike Clay’s 2026 projections, the following QBs hit that 50-30 threshold:

Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield and Malik Willis.

Purdy, Bryce Young, Tyler Shough, and Kyler Murray are also very close to the 50-30 threshold, FWIW.

And don’t chase last year’s passing TD efficiency unless we have a large sample size of a player’s career TD rate. If last year was an outlier, it probably isn’t sustainable, and you are buying the quarterback at a peak price.

That brings me to the last point. Price sensitivity. Paying up to draft the QBs right after the elite tier does not work. Stay out of the middle. These middle-range QBs are more likely to finish closer to the guys behind them than in front of them.

The QB8-to-QB13 range bombed for a second straight season in 2023. In 2024, the QB5-QB14 range was filled with landmines (7 out of 10 QBs were busts).

In 2025, we had three elite QB busts (Jayden Daniels/Lamar Jackson/Joe Burrow) with injuries taking a toll. More of the middle-round QBs also weren’t great picks – Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray – even if they weren’t all total busts.

Bo Nix and Jared Goff finished where they were drafted, but hardly delivered the massive ROI that several QBs (Herbert, Williams, Maye, Dart, Lawrence, and Stafford) who went outside the top-12 did. Late-round QB DOMINATED in 2025. Again, injuries played a part – but it’s a reminder that when you swing for the fences on an elite signal-caller, it needs to hit (Josh Allen).

And that these late-round dual-threat QBs are just the best picks you can make in fantasy football (see anything I wrote about Drake Maye heading into 2025).

Last year, I was convinced the rookie RBs would take the league by storm, and that hardly panned out for myriad reasons. But we see plenty of RBs take leaps in Year 2, and that’s what I’m here for, regardless of what transpired in their rookie campaigns. Kaleb Johnson? Not dead yet. Destined to follow in the footsteps of Blake Corum and Tank Bigsby – as colossal rookie RB busts that rebounded in Year 2.

A guy can dream, can’t he?

Top Double-Digit Round Targets (Outside top-120 overall)

Round 11 Targets

• KC Concepcion
• Aaron Jones
• Tyrone Tracy
• Malik Willis

Round 12 Targets

• Greg Dulcich
• Jayden Higgins
• Chig Okonkwo
• Kenyon Sadiq

Round 13 Targets

• Keaton Mitchell
• Dylan Sampson
• Antonio Williams

Round 14 Targets

• Emanuel Wilson
• Nicholas Singleton
• Travis Hunter

Round 15 Targets

• AJ Barner
• Tre Harris
• Ray Davis
• Jordan James

Round 16 Targets

• Los Angeles Chargers DST
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Jaylin Noel
• MarShawn Lloyd
• DJ Giddens

Sample 2026 “Perfect” Fantasy Football Drafts

Running through several simulations of Andrew Erickson’s perfect drafts.

Your 2026 fantasy football must-have targets????

I'll start:

QB Justin Herbert
RB Chase Brown
WR Zay Flowers
TE Isaiah Likely

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 9, 2026

Balanced

Hero RB

Late-Round QB (Justin Herbert)

Elite WR

Late-Round TE

Zero RB

Top-3 Pick (Based on ADP)

ZERO RB!?

<tr”>222A.J. BrownWR1523+8

Mid-Round 1 Pick (Based on ADP)

Late-Round 1 Pick (Based on ADP)

Core 4 Builds (Based on realistic ADP)

Your 2026 fantasy football must-have targets????

I'll start:

QB Justin Herbert
RB Chase Brown
WR Zay Flowers
TE Isaiah Likely

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 9, 2026

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