Andrew Erickson has dug into why you should seriously consider buying into players on good offenses, even if they are going later in fantasy football drafts than more well-known targets in poorer environments. He’s also examined ‘bad’ offenses and what you need to know as you prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Here’s a look at players to target on ‘bad’ offenses that could be going undervalued in drafts.
23 Players to Fade on Bad Offenses
- RB Derrick Henry
- WR Tyreek Hill
- RB David Montgomery, RB Antonio Gibson
- WR DK Metcalf, WR Diontae Johnson
- WR Amari Cooper
- RB Rashaad Penny, RB Damien Harris
- RB Cordarelle Patterson
- RB Kenneth Walker
- WR Robert Woods
- TE Pat Freiermuth
- QB Tua Tagovailoa, TE Mike Gesicki
- RB Marlon Mack, WR Robbie Anderson
- WR Kenny Golladay, RB Tyler Allgeier, WR D.J. Chark
- WR Marvin Jones, TE Evan Engram, RB Raheem Mostert
Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. But he came in slightly under expectations. The ‘Cheetah’ wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2).
It’s worth noting that Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th). Hill’s aDOT also dipped dramatically to 10.6, which was the lowest it’s been since his rookie season.
And It’s undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it’s hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-5 season with a lesser passer. Especially with Tagovailoa’s lack of a confident deep ball, a prominent running game, and Jaylen Waddle also heavily involved in the offensive game plan. Sure, Hill will have his weeks when he is peppered with low-value targets in PPR formats, but the massive downfield touchdowns will happen much less frequently.
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts D.K. Metcalf in a tough spot.
Although the alpha wideout did rise to occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th – same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games.
But I am suspect that removing their quarterback that led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury is going to create a much larger impact over a 17-game sample size.
News flash, people – Marlon Mack signed a 1-year $2 million deal with Houston, and it’s less than the team is paying Rex Burkhead (RB95).
In fact, $2.1 million of Burkhead’s $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed.
We could easily see Mack released as much as we could see him become the team’s starting running back. Because the former Colts running back has been completely off-the-grid the past two seasons after tearing his Achilles at the start of 2020. Since his 1,000-yard campaign in 2019, Mack has totaled 32 carries for 127 yards.
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