Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews. If you’re looking for the complete primer, here’s a link to it:
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
- GB -2, O/U 48
- Packers vs. Vikings Betting Matchup via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The new upbeat attack of the Vikings this year with Kevin O’Connell has garnered a lot of offseason ink, but the reality is that this offensive play volume could look similar to last year. The Vikings were fifth and 12th in neutral pace and passing rate last year. As good as they were in 2021, the Rams were ranked 13th and ninth in these categories.
- Aaron Rodgers‘ volume will remain capped, barring a massive change with Nathaniel Hackett leaving. Green Bay was 10th in neutral passing frequency last year, but they were 32nd in pace. I doubt that they will suddenly start sprinting up and down the field in 2022.
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers: Aaron Rodgers crushed the Vikings last year. In their two games, he averaged 336 passing yards and three scores while completing 73.2% of his passes. Yes, he lost Davbae Adams in the offseason, but this isn’t a secondary to fear. Minnesota was eighth in yards per attempt and ninth in passing touchdowns allowed last year. They especially struggled deep with the eighth-most deep passing yards and fourth-most deep passing touchdowns surrendered. Rodgers was sixth in deep attempts and 13th in deep passer rating (minimum 10 deep attempts) in 2021.
MAN VAN alwayshttps://t.co/Vl9Iteh16W
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) July 27, 2021
Kirk Cousins: Unlike Rodgers, Kirk Cousins faces a tough on-paper matchup. That didn’t stop him from lighting them up in his only game against them last year. He tossed for 341 with three scores while completing 68.5% of his passes. The Packers allowed the fifth-lowest adjusted completion rate and seventh-lowest yards per attempt last season, but they were swiss cheese inside the 20. They ranked 29th in red zone passing defense with the seventh-most passing touchdowns permitted. Look for Kevin O’Connell to exploit this. With Matthew Stafford last year, the Rams were ninth in red zone passing rate. While Cousins’ yardage total might not impress, he can still sling it for a multiple touchdown game in Week 1.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon: Aaron Jones missed one of the games against Minnesota last year. In the other game, he had eight carries for 76 yards on the ground while adding another 30 through the air (six targets, five receptions). A.J. Dillon played both weeks averaging 12.5 rushing attempts with 58 rushing yards and 32 receiving yards (4.5 targets, four receptions). The Vikings were 32nd and 25th last season in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. They excelled in limiting big plays as they were fourth in open field yards with the 12th-lowest explosive run rate. The defensive line lost Sheldon Richardson and Michael Pierce in the offseason but gained linebacker Jordan Hicks and defensive lineman Harrison Phillips. Hicks was the 30th-highest graded linebacker against the run per PFF (minimum 100 run defense snaps), and Phillips was sixth among defensive tackles. These two players should help. The question is, how much?
Weeks 14-17
| Player | Touches/Game | Total Yards/Game | Red-Zone Opportunities | Routes |
| Aaron Jones | 13.3 | 82.1 | 3 | 76 |
| A.J. Dillon | 12.8 | 61.3 | 13 | 54 |
After Week 13, the Packers split up the work between Jones and Dillon almost evenly. Jones had the clear edge in the passing game, but Dillon was the team’s primary option near the goal line. Jones was banged up during this span, but we can’t rule out that this split could roll over to 2022. Jones didn’t show any fall-off from an efficiency standpoint last year, ranking ninth in yards created per touch, 15th in yards per route run, and 16th in evaded tackles. Dillon was a bulldozer on early downs ranking 17th in yards created per touch while flashing surprisingly soft hands in the passing game with 2.07 yards per route run. Dillon doesn’t have Jones’ big play ability. Both backs are best viewed as RB2 options, with each carrying a higher ceiling should Jones break a big play or Dillon fall into the endzone twice.
Dalvin Cook: In the last three full games Dalvin Cook has played against Green Bay, he’s destroyed them. Last year he rolled up 25 touches with 115 total yards and a score. The previous season, he went nuclear with 32 touches for 226 total yards and four touchdowns, and earlier in the year, he was limited to 13 touches and 48 total yards, but he got in the endzone twice. The Packers were 26th and 21st in adjusted line yards last year, but the box score stats look like they were a top-tier run defense. They held the opposition to the sixth-fewest rushing yards, but that’s largely due to facing the third-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL. The Packers relinquished the third-highest rushing yards per attempt while sitting at 28th in explosive run rate. Cook should come screaming out of the starting blocks in Week 1.
BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 1, Dalvin Cook is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.
Wide Receivers
Allen Lazard: Reports coming out of Green Bay sound pessimistic about Allen Lazard suiting up for Week 1. Last year Lazard saw a 10% target share (third on the team) and 15% of the team’s air yards playing 42% of his snaps from the slot. He was third on the team in deep targets. The area of Lazard’s usage that really stands out was his team-leading 23% end zone target share. With Adams gone Lazard will likely play more outside, matching him up with Patrick Peterson and Cameron Dantzler this week. Peterson surrendered a 57.8% catch rate and 89.0 passer rating last season. Dantzler was quite good with a 52.4% catch rate and 70.3 passer rating in coverage.
Update: Allen Lazard has been listed as doubtful for Week 1.
Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson:
[Insert Sammy Watkins Week 1 joke here]
Yes, Sammy Watkins should be fitted with a gold jacket for his induction in the Week 1 Hall of Fame, but that doesn’t make him startable. The wide receiver usage for this team could be scattered with Watkins, Doubs, and Watson all vying for routes on the outside. Cobb the same can be said but as a slot receiver. Cobb was a situational red zone receiver last year. Monitor the Fantasy Pros Discord for any updates on clarity regarding starter snaps for this team, but currently Lazard is the only Green Bay wideout we can comfortably project playing time, assuming he does play in Week 1.
Update: If you’re taking an upside flex stab at this wide receiver room, I lean Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs. Each of these rookies have speed to burn. Patrick Peterson has had troubles with speed at this stage of his career. Dantzler runs a 4.64 40 yard dash and has a 16th percentile speed score. One of these rookies is a darkhorse to burn this secondary deep in Week 1.
Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen: Justin Jefferson is a truly elite talent. Last year he led the Vikings with a 28% target share and saw 46% of the team’s air yards. Jefferson was the first read on 35% of the team’s passing plays while also handling 41% of the end zone targets. Is this matchup great? No. Are you still starting Jefferson? Emphatically yes. Jefferson was a top ten receiver in yards per route run (sixth) and route win rate (10th) last year. I doubt we see Jaire Alexander shadow Jefferson partly because the other Green Bay corners are quite talented. Alexander was out for much of last season due to injury, so take his 60% catch rate and 93.5 passer rating allowed with a grain of salt. When he’s not matched up with Alexander, he’ll see Rasul Douglas, who was nasty in 2021, giving up a 51.5% catch rate and 46.3 passer rating.
Adam Thielen will run opposite Jefferson on the outside for about 75% of his routes against Alexander and Douglas. Thielen was still the WR14 in fantasy points per game last year despite his injury and advancing age. His yards per route run dipping to 53rd isn’t indicative of what he has left in the tank as he was still 25th in route win rate. Thielen saw a 19% red zone target share and will remain Cousin’s comfort blanket inside the 20.
K.J. Osborn: K.J. Osborn stepped up last year when Thielen was out of the lineup. His PPR scoring bumped from 8.6 points per game to 12.1, while his receiving yards climbed from 36.9 to 43.7 per game. Minnesota only utilized 11 personnel on 58% of their passing plays (29th) last season. That number will climb with O’Connell in town as the Rams led the league at 92%. There will be matchups in the slot where we gravitate to Osborn, but this isn’t one of those weeks. Osborn’s 53rd ranking in win rate last year doesn’t give us a lot of hope he’ll put up a juicy stat line against Eric Stokes. Stokes allowed a 51.0% catch rate and 79.1 passer rating last year.
Tight Ends
Robert Tonyan: Robert Tonyan‘s 2020 season was an outlier in every sense and the limited time we saw him last year before he was lost to injury cemented that belief. In his five games with 60% or higher snaps, he only recorded one top 12 fantasy game. Touchdowns and not efficiency have been the hallmark for Tonyan. Against a Vikings team that saw the ninth-fewest targets to the position allowing the ninth-fewest receiving touchdowns, this isn’t an avenue to look his way.
Irv Smith: Onto another tight end that had his 2021 season wrecked by injury, Irv Smith is primed to return in Week 1. While he did sustain an injury in camp, all the reports are he’ll be active here. The last time we saw Smith, he was eighth in yards per target and second in QBR when targeted among tight ends. He should push for a massive route per dropback role with the depth chart unimpressive behind him. The Packers were vulnerable to tight ends last year, ranking 12th in receiving yards and sixth in receiving touchdowns. Minnesota could avoid the Packers’ stout corners, leading to a healthy target share for Smith.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
