Fantasy Football Primer: Steelers vs. Bengals (Week 1)

Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews. If you’re looking for the complete primer, here’s a link to it:

• The Primer: Week 1 Edition

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN -6.5, O/U 44.5
• Steelers vs. Bengals Betting Matchup via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last season the Steelers were 11th in neutral pace and passing rate. With a new quarterback under center, we could see both the pace and passing rate decline. The passing rate is the more problematic of the two.
• The Bengals relied upon efficiency in 2021. Their offensive pace was a huge problem as they were 28th in neutral situations and the eighth slowest team when playing with a lead of eight or more points.
• Zach Taylor has donkey tendencies. While we all clamor for him to fully unleash Joe Burrow and his Clydesdales on the outside, it might remain more muted than we’d like. If it remains the same, Cincinnati’s pace will limit their play volume. We also saw Taylor lean on the run more down the stretch. Overall the team was ranked seventh in neutral passing rate, but in Weeks 9-18 last season, they dropped to 14th.

Injuries

• Steelers News – Injury Reports
• Bengals News – Injury Reports

Quarterbacks

Mitch Trubisky: If you’re considering starting a Pittsburgh quarterback outside of the deepest of superflex leagues the answer is no. The Bengals on paper aren’t a tough matchup after allowing the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate and ranking 11th in yards per attempt last year, but there’s a laundry list of better quarterback options to consider over the bag of meh that is Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. If Trubisky is named the starter he could easily implode behind the Steelers leaky offensive line. The Bengals were 14th in pressure rate last season. The last time we saw Trubsiky under center as a starter he was 31st and 32nd in PFF grade and adjusted completion rate against pressure (minimum 50 dropbacks).

Joe Burrow: The defense formerly known as the Steel Curtain showed some dents in the armor last year, ranking only 16th in EPA per play and allowing the fifth-highest passer rating on deep passes. This can be traced to their cornerback room falling apart, with Joe Haden, James Pierre, and Arthur Malet all falling on their faces. That likely won’t be the case this year as Pittsburgh’s front office gave Akhello Witherspoon a running mate in Levi Wallace on the outside. Behind a retooled offensive line and after ranking first in pressured completion rate last year, Burrow can hold up against the Steelers’ eighth-ranked pressure rate last year. If Pittsburgh’s corners can stand up to the challenge of the Bengals’ receivers, don’t be surprised if Zach Taylor leans on Joe Mixon here. Burrow is best viewed from a median projection as a low-end QB1 this week.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Najee Harris remains a locked-in volume monster. Last year he finished first in opportunity share and weighted opportunity. He averaged 22.5 touches and 98.1 total yards per game while seeing a 14.5% target share (fifth among running backs). The Bengals are a middle-of-the-road matchup for opposing backs after ranking 20th and 25th last season in second-level and open field yards allowed. Harris’s pass game role offers him a ceiling as Cincinnati gave up the fifth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards to running backs (19th DVOA against receiving backs last year).

Joe Mixon: Joe Mixon had the Steelers’ number last year, averaging 23 rushing attempts and 127.5 rushing yards per game in their two meetings. Mixon made the most of his opportunities behind an offensive line that didn’t rank any higher than 15th in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards last year. With the Bengals’ offseason upgrades upfront, Mixon should have more room to operate against a defense that was gashed by opposing running backs last season.

The Steelers were 32nd in explosive run rate and second in rushing yards allowed. Mixon was seventh in breakaway runs last season, so don’t dismiss his ability to rip off a few long ones in Week 1. While he may never be the true three-down back we’ve always hoped for, it doesn’t matter this week as his receiving will just be icing on the cake.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Diontae Johnson was the clear leading receiver for Pittsburgh last year. Johnson was first among their wide receivers in target share (26%) and air yard share (32%) while tying with Chase Claypool for the lead in end zone target share. Johnson was on the perimeter for about 92% of his routes, which likely won’t change this year. He could draw a shadow from Chidobe Awuzie in Week 1. Awuzie shadowed six times last season, including a game against Johnson where he followed him on 58% of his routes, giving up on one reception on three targets with 15 receiving yards. Awuzie was stellar as a shadow corner, only allowing Davante Adams and A.J. Brown to exceed 40 receiving yards in a game. Overall he allowed a 56.7% catch rate and 80.9 passer rating last season.

Follow me down this Rabbit hole.

In 2022 could Chase Claypool be a POWER SLOT in PIT❓

Slot YPRR
(per PFF, min 10 slot tgs)

2021:
Diontae 1.07 (90th)
Claypool 1.75 (30th of 114 WRs)

2020:
Diontae 0.63
Claypool 0.95

Diontae & Pickens outside
Claypool slot ?

DAMN I’M BACK IN pic.twitter.com/GHvcgskfp2

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 5, 2022

Chase Claypool: If Awuzie locks down Johnson, Week 1 could be the time the Steelers unleash Chase Claypool big slot szn. In the preseason, he was utilized from the slot on 83.3% of his snaps. Last year Claypool saw a 16% target share and 26% of the team’s air yards. He’ll match up against Mike Hilton and a team that gave up the eighth-most receptions, 10th-most receiving yards, and eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers. Hilton allowed a 69.8% catch rate and 100.0 passer rating in slot coverage last year. If you’re looking for upside from your flex this week, Claypool has it.

George Pickens: While many are ready to get George Pickens fitted for a Hall of Fame jacket after the preseason, we need to temper expectations out the gate. Pickens was solid in the preseason but not spectacular with his 1.62 yards per route run. At Georgia, he was never ranked higher than 44th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets) in any collegiate season. He enters Week 1 as the possible fourth or fifth read in the passing attack. He ran 91.4% of his routes outside in the preseason, which means a heavy dose of Awuzie and Eli Apple. While we’ve discussed Awuzie’s skill, we haven’t mentioned Apple’s lack of it. Last year he allowed a 60.9% catch rate and 100.2 passer rating in coverage. Pickens may get the best of him in this game, but let’s pump the brakes a tad before crowning him the king of Steel City.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were dueling banjos of wide receiver excellence last season finishing as the WR5 and WR12 in fantasy points per game. Their numbers were strikingly similar as Chase finished with a 23% target share and 38% of the team’s air yards while Higgins garnered a 20% target share and 30% air yard share. I don’t have to convince you to start them in Week 1, but it’s worth noting the corners they will face on 78-80% of their routes are quite good. Pittsburgh’s new face in the cornerback room, Levi Wallace gave up a 59.8% catch rate and 85.9 passer rating in Buffalo last year. Akhello Witherspoon has been a shutdown corner whenever he’s been fully healthy. Last year health complied as he surrendered a 48.6% catch rate and 48.0 passer rating in coverage. This isn’t grounds to sit either player, but it’s worth tempering expectations for the two this week.

Tyler Boyd: The third wheel of the Bengals’ passing tricycle has a good matchup in the slot this week. Tyler Boyd handled a 17% target share last year, but only 16% of the team’s air yards and 12% of their end zone targets. In their two meetings, he averaged only four targets, three receptions, and 24.5 receiving yards last season. If the Bengals do keep the ball on the ground here, then Boyd’s volume will suffer the most. Cameron Sutton does offer a juicy matchup as he allowed a 68.9% catch rate and 108.8 passer rating last year. Boyd is a WR4 type with a tad of upside in this matchup.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Pat Freiermuth only saw a 12% target share last year as the fourth option in the passing attack, but he was integral in their red zone offense. Freiermuth was second in red zone target share and led all tight ends in the NFL in red zone targets. He scored in both games against the Bengals last year, averaging 4.5 targets, 3.5 receptions, and 31 receiving yards. Cincinnati was abysmal against the position last season, and with their personnel largely unchanged, I doubt that’s different in 2022. The Bengals gave up the fourth-most receptions, fifth-most receiving yards and seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Hayden Hurst: Hayden Hurst has been one of my favorite darkhorse tight ends of the offseason, but I have no infatuation for him in Week 1. Hurst will take over the every down role that led C.J. Uzomah to rank 11th in snap share and routes run last year. Uzomah also only saw a 12.3% target share. This isn’t the week to dive deep in Hurst’s direction for a streamer. The Steelers have been tough against the position for multiple years, ranking 10th in DVOA last season, giving up the 13th fewest receptions and receiving yards.

My DFS Plays