Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Risers & Fallers (Week 5)
Week 4 is in the books, and there were some crazy fluctuations in values in fantasy, just like every other week. These are the players that I think saw the biggest changes at each position, either up or down. Hopefully, you can exploit some of these changes to improve your team for the long haul. Let’s get into it!
Week 5 Value Risers
The biggest riser this week has to be Goff, who finished as the QB1 overall with 4 passing touchdowns and 1 interception. He completed 26 of 39 passes for 378 yards as well against a stout Seahawks defense. This game was a shootout, with Geno Smith (QB – SEA) finishing as the QB2 on the week. Goff definitely looked good here, but he was arguably missing his top three options in Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET), D’Andre Swift (RB – DET), and rookie Jameson Williams (WR – DET). St. Brown and Swift could be back this week, but Williams isn’t far behind them.
Once the entire offense is on the field and in a rhythm, it’s hard to imagine Goff being on anyone’s bench for fantasy. If I have Goff, I’m holding him and likely riding him to a title. If I want to acquire him, I’m sending a “better” QB like Russell Wilson (QB – DEN) or Derek Carr (QB – LVR) and asking for something on top of Goff as a sweetener. Better to do this before Goff’s name gets much more heat on it and the QB prices balance out.
Well, he did it again. CEH finished as RB9 on the week in PPR scoring. He finished as RB6, RB8, and RB14 in the previous three weeks, putting him at RB4 on the year. He’s scored a total of five touchdowns on 55 total opportunities, a 9% TD rate. I don’t think this rate continues, but his value has certainly gone up because of it. I’d gladly be selling him for a more stable RB or packaging him with a bench WR for a top ten WR option. Even if his production continues, you’ll be happy getting someone you won’t have to worry about as much back in a trade.
The rookie breakout is here! Pickens linked up well with rookie QB Kenny Pickett after he took over, and the team has already announced that they’re going with Pickett in Week 5 and beyond. This bodes well for Pickens’ value. I’d try to trade a couple of bench pieces for him or a single bench RB in a one-for-one type of trade. All I know is that I want Pickens on my roster. I’m fine stashing him on my bench to see how the next few weeks play out, and in dynasty, his price is about to skyrocket if it hasn’t already. Buy him sooner rather than later.
Hockenson is the easy choice here after his huge Week 4. I don’t know if this value bump is permanent or temporary, though. There are definitely some fantasy managers that focus on past scoring and ignore context. They are who I’d be sending offers to if I roster Hockenson. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, and even Jameson Williams coming back in the next few weeks, it’s possible that Hockenson will go back to his TE2 ways. Trade him away now while you can. Maybe you can find a way to move up to Darren Waller or George Kittle while their values are deflated slightly too.
Week 5 Value Fallers
It’s hard to imagine a bigger QB faller this year than Justin Field. He came into the year with high hopes for his NFL team and fantasy managers. NFL fans and fantasy managers are fed up with his performance through four weeks. Fields finished Week 4 as QB26, meaning that he wasn’t worth starting even in 2QB or Superflex leagues. He threw for 174 yards on 22 attempts, both season highs, but scored just over 10 fantasy points to show for it. I’m fine dropping him in 1QB leagues, but see what bench player you can swap him for in Superflex formats. Anything is better than Fields right now.
This one might seem crazy, but hear me out. Fournette is one of those rare “fallers” that had a great week for fantasy. He finished as RB12 with 18.4 PPR points in Week 4, but he did so on one of the weirdest touch counts I’ve seen. He carried the ball only three times for -3 yards, but he caught all seven of his targets for 51 yards and a touchdown. That’s all fine and dandy, but low usage numbers don’t bode well for his future value. I’d be trying to move Fournette on this above-average game for someone more in the true RB1 realm, like Dalvin Cook or even Christian McCaffrey. I’d be fine adding a bench WR to the deal to get it done as well. I don’t trust Fournette to be an RB1 most weeks.
Week 4 wasn’t all that unkind to Gibson, who finished with 13 carries for 49 yards and three catches for 14 yards. His 9.3 PPR points put him as RB34 on the week, just behind AJ Dillon and Cordarrelle Patterson. Not terrible company, but there’s a change on the horizon for Gibson. Teammate Brian Robinson is set to come off IR this week, and he could easily eat into Gibson’s workload. It might take a few weeks, but I think Gibson is trending down right now. I’d be fine moving him for an underperforming WR like Gabe Davis or even Darnell Mooney. I just think Gibson’s floor is very low and very close.
Moore worries me quite a bit. I should clarify that Baker Mayfield worries me quite a bit. By extension, this means I’m also worried about Moore. He finished as WR29 in Week 4 with 6 catches on 11 targets for 50 yards. He also got one carry for 11 yards. Moore is averaging 9 PPR points per week, WR51 overall. This is just blah to me. There are a dozen other receivers that can average that production. I want more, pardon the pun. I’d see if I can package him with a bench RB to upgrade at WR. Maybe targeting someone like Adam Thielen or Jahan Dotson, who seem to be more reliable.
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Andrew Hall is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, follow him @AndrewHallFF.