We are officially at the halfway point of the NFL season, and what a first half it was. It would be tough to summarize the first nine weeks because so much has changed since we were nerding out over our draft boards.
Rookies have taken jobs away, injuries have hit us hard, and real-life general managers have swapped players and picks more than I can ever remember. With familiar faces in new places and young guys stepping up, the dynasty landscape is ever-changing.
Let’s identify some risers and fallers at the season’s halfway mark.
Risers
After surprisingly being shipped out of Detroit, TJ Hockenson stepped in to play 60 snaps for the division-rival Minnesota Vikings five days later. His 91% snap rate is the highest Hockenson has played since week 1, and it came less than a week after joining the team. It’s a much higher percentage than when Irv Smith played, who topped out at a 64% snap rate. Hockenson also saw nine targets, the second-highest total on the team behind Justin Jefferson and three more than his season average of six. It’s just one game, but it appears that Kevin O’Connell has a plan for his new tight end. With the Vikings throwing the ball at the eighth-highest rate in the league, Hockenson will have ample opportunities to hit the long-awaited breakout.
Justin Fields is the talk of the town, and I wrote about him last week, but the most accurate passer in the NFL completed 21 of 30 passes for 302 yards and three touchdowns on Sunday. Tyreek Hill insisted after the game, for a second time, that Tua Tagovailoa is the most accurate passer in the NFL, and it’s tough to argue after what he’s done the last two weeks. He’s completed 76% of his passes while tallying 684 passing yards and six touchdowns in the last two games. There’s no doubt he’s benefited from the presence of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, but Tua deserves plenty of credit for the Dolphins’ success.
With Cameron Brate sidelined for another week, Cade Otton stepped in to play 71 of 84 snaps. In the four games that Brate has missed, Otton played 94%, 81%, 91%, and now 85% of snaps. Brate’s snap rate only reached 80% once, coming in Week 3 when Otton was out. He finished Sunday’s game with five grabs for 68 yards and a score, including a big catch over the middle on a game-winning drive. He’s recorded at least five targets in four of the last five games, eclipsing 10 fantasy points in three of those contests. Even if Brate returns to action soon, Otton has likely established a role for himself and earned the trust of Tom Brady. Regardless, the rookie looks like a future TE1.
Even though Travis Etienne was featured in this column a couple of weeks ago, he deserves another shout-out as he continues to rise up the ranks. In the two games he’s played without James Robinson, Etienne has scored 25.2 and 26.6 fantasy points. He’s rushed for 379 yards and four touchdowns across the last three games and has handled 27 or more touches in each of the last two games. Officially silencing the doubters who claimed he could not handle an every-down workload, Etienne has cemented himself as an elite dynasty running back.
Fallers
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire also finds himself on the wrong side of this column for the second time in the past few weeks. Edwards-Helaire’s value dip began to snowball after a limited workload the past few weeks, followed by Isiah Pacheco being named the starter in Week 7. Following Sunday’s game, the snowball rolled its way into a full-blown avalanche as CEH played just 17 snaps, fewer than Pacheco’s 22 and Jerick McKinnon‘s 63. McKinnon ran a whopping 52 routes compared to 10 for CEH, which is bad news for somebody who relied on three receiving touchdowns through the first four weeks. The Chiefs were in comeback mode, but even if they weren’t, Edwards-Helaire’s four carries for five yards weren’t going to earn him a heavy workload. He seems to be the third back in a three-man committee, and if he can’t get it done in this offense, it’s unlikely he would anywhere else.
Sure, you can throw out the last couple of stat lines with Malik Willis at quarterback, but Robert Woods has been on the back of a milk carton for most of the season. He has one touchdown on the season and has only hit 40+ yards one time, but on top of that, his snaps and routes have taken a hit. On Sunday, he ran 16 routes on 32 snaps, both fewer than teammate Nick Westbrook-Ikhane who ran 19 routes on 40 snaps. Woods was targeted twice with a heavy dose of Derrick Henry throughout the contest, but this is a run-first offense, and Woods has shown nothing to garner more looks. Treylon Burks will return in the next few weeks, further denting Woods’ value if it wasn’t already smashed all the way in.
There are many layers to Chase Claypool’s move to the Windy City. First and foremost, we have to wonder why a team with such a good track record of drafting and developing wide receivers was willing to part with him. I understand that George Pickens has shown enough to warrant more targets, but teams are playing with three wide receivers on the field more than ever, and it doesn’t hurt to have extra weaponry for a young quarterback. While nobody would mistake the Steelers’ offense for the Bills or Chiefs, he now pairs up with a quarterback who relies on his legs far more than his arm. The Bears throw for the fewest yards per game with 125 and have Darnell Mooney seeing a bevy of targets. Claypool caught two of six targets for 12 yards in his Bears debut, primarily playing outside after working the slot in Pittsburgh, a role that I liked him in. Fields has the arm to connect on some deep shots but lacks the consistency to provide Claypool with any sort of floor. I expect the Bears to also continue hunting for wide receivers in the offseason, further complicating Claypool’s long-term outlook.
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