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Fantasy Football Week 13 Player Projections (2022)

Nov 30, 2022
Fantasy Football Week 13 Player Projections (2022)

In this piece are my personal NFL Week 13 projections for every fantasy- and prop-relevant player (unless I missed one here or there).

This week, I will keep the following schedule for my projections.

  • Tuesday: Do first pass of player projections in the evening.
  • Thursday: Do initial update in the afternoon before Thursday Night Football.
  • Saturday & Sunday: Do final update late on Saturday night or early on Sunday morning.

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After my final update, if you want to see an even fresher set of player projections check out our official Week 13 FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources.

While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also consult the following.

NFL Week 13 Player Projections

My projections are organized by projected fantasy points. I use the default half-PPR FantasyPros scoring settings. Note that my projected fantasy points do include two-point conversions and fumbles lost (and passing production for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables to save space.

After my positional rankings, I’ve added a few player notes.

Note that my projections differ from my rankings, which are much more intuitive and done by hand. With my rankings, I try to take upside and downside into account. I think about range of outcomes and potential expected value. I’m currently No. 11 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing No. 14 last year. My projections are largely automated and created with formulas in a spreadsheet. With my projections, I’m trying to forecast only the median.

NFL Week 13 QB Projections

NFL Week 13 QB Notes

Justin Herbert (LAC) at LV: In his two games since No. 1 WR Keenan Allen returned in Week 11, Herbert has been at his best (554-5-1 passing, 75.3% completion rate, 7.9 AY/A). For the season, Herbert is No. 1 with 312 completions and No. 2 with 463 pass attempts overall and 123 pass attempts of 10-plus yards (per our Advanced QB Stats Report). Herbert has a five-star matchup against the Raiders, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.227) and dropback SR (53.4%, per RBs Don't Matter).

I'm taking over 21.0 fantasy points on Herbert in the Week 13 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) at DET: Lawrence started the season slowly (6.7 AY/A, 14-58-0 rushing in Weeks 1-5), but since Week 6 he has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in five of six games (7.3 AY/A, 25-121-3 rushing). The Lions are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (24.6 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).

NFL Week 13 RB Projections

NFL Week 13 RB Notes

Josh Jacobs (LV) vs. LAC: After mediocre performances in Weeks 1-2 (154 yards, zero touchdowns), Jacobs has been the No. 1 fantasy back since Week 3 with 24.2 FPPG, 187-1,033-9 rushing and 38-297-0 receiving on 46 targets in nine games (per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report). Last week, Prop Bet Cheat Sheet with a position-high 45.3 fantasy points on 303 yards and two touchdowns from scrimmage on 33 carries and seven targets. Jacobs (calf) is dealing with an injury, but he played through it last week, and I tentatively project him to start this week. If Jacobs is out, then rookie RB Zamir White will be a viable flex play. The Chargers are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (0.016) and No. 29 in rush DVOA (4.6%). I could not have been more wrong.

Check out my Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Aaron Jones (GB) at CHI: Among all lead backs, Jones is No. 1 in the league with a 50.3% Rush Percentage Over Expected (per Next Gen Stats). Despite splitting work with No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon and playing in an underperforming offense (19,6 points per game, No. 23), Jones has 1,125 yards and six touchdowns on 155 carries and 53 targets in 12 games. The Packers could give Jones with a heavy workload if QB Aaron Rodgers (thumb, ribs) is out. Against the Bears in Week 2, Jones had 15-132-1 rushing and 3-38-1 receiving on three targets. The Bears are No. 28 in defensive rush DVOA (4.5%).

Jamaal Williams (DET) vs. JAX: No. 1 RB D'Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) is dealing with injuries and has seen limited usage (23 carries, 23 targets) in five games since returning to action in Week 8. Even with Swift active, Williams has 346 yards and seven touchdowns (plus a two-point conversion) on 85 carries and three targets over the past five games. Williams is No. 1 in the league with 13 touchdowns rushing overall and 22 carries inside the five-yard line (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). No player in the league has more than Williams' 51.5 fantasy points per 100 snaps (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet).

NFL Week 13 WR Projections

NFL Week 13 WR Notes

A.J. Brown (PHI) vs. TEN: The path to production is not always smooth, but Brown is pacing to hit career-high marks in targets (86), yards (831) and touchdowns (7), given his current numbers. The Titans are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (33.0 FPPG) and are without No. 1 CB Caleb Farley (back, IR) and S Lonnie Johnson (hamstring, IR). Sometimes karma is the best revenge.

Christian Kirk (JAX) at DET: I'm not sure if Kirk is actually good - but he might be, given that he has 24-267-3 receiving on 37 targets over the past month and 56-725-7 on 91 in 11 games this year. I'm totally sure that the Lions are bad, as they rank No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (32.7 FPPG).

Christian Watson (GB) at CHI: In the absence of fellow rookie WR Romeo Doubs (ankle), Watson has gone off over the past three weeks with 12-265-6 receiving on 20 targets. The Bears are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (30.6%) - and Watson is now playing like the top pass catcher for the Packers.

NFL Week 13 TE Projections

NFL Week 13 TE Notes

Travis Kelce (KC) at CIN: Kelce is the No. 1 tight end with 18.4 FPPG, well ahead of Mark Andrews at No. 2 (11.9): The edge Kelce provides at the position is monstrous. Kelce is No. 1 at the position with 26 red-zone targets, 35 receptions of 10-plus yards and 15 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). The Chiefs have a week-high 27.5-point implied total in our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Check out our DFS lineup optimizer, which is just one of our many FantasyPros DFS tools.

Cole Kmet (CHI) vs. GB: No. 1 WR Darnell Mooney (ankle, IR) is out, so Kmet could see extra targets in his absence. The Packers could be without S Darnell Savage (foot), who exited Week 12 early with an injury.

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