The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football smash plays – guys that you are either usually starting or are on the FLEX fringe that have massive boom/upside potential above expectation – for the upcoming week.

Embrace these guys, and don’t be afraid to start them over another “safer” option – preferably a higher-ranked option – from my Week 14 fantasy football rankings.

Batter up.

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Fantasy Football Smash City: Week 14

QUARTERBACKS

Jared Goff (QB – DET)

• Detroit owns the league’s No. 1 red-zone scoring offense (74%) but the second-worst red-zone defense. Minnesota boasts a bottom-10 red-zone defense.
• The Lions are second in the NFL in passing TDs per game at home (2.4)
• Since Week 6 the Lions are allowing the most fantasy points per game to QBs.
• The Vikings rank 3rd in that category.
• Minnesota is allowing 325 passing yards per game – 36 yards more than the next closest team (Jaguars).
• Detroit also has the third-highest implied team total on the slate (27).

RUNNINGBACKS

D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)

• The Vikings are a bottom-5 defense in catches, targets, and receiving yards allowed to RBs.
• D’Andre Swift is back. The Lions running back started Week 13 and led the team in carries (14 for 62 and 1 TD) over Jamaal Williams (11 for 35 and 1 TD).
• He was also targeted 6 times, catching 4 for 49 yards, for a 54% opportunity share.
• Swift out-touched Williams 18-to-11 and played the lion’s share of snaps (51%). Also saw three carries inside the 10-yard line to Williams’ two.
• Swift’s 14 carries were the most he has had in a game since Week 1.
• He has also had a 19% target share in his last two games.

Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)

• The Eagles own the league’s No. 2 red-zone scoring offense (74%)
• The Giants have had the league’s worst red-zone defense over the last 3 weeks allowing 2 rushing TDs per game.
• New York’s defense ranks second in most rushing yards allowed before contact per attempt (1.73), fourth in rushing yards allowed per game (118), and second in yards per carry (5.1) allowed to RBs.
• Since Week 10, the Giants have allowed 133 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs (3rd).

D’Onta Foreman (RB – CAR)

• Seattle gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to the RB position.
• Notable performance over recent weeks: Leonard Fournette – 14 for 57 yards and 1 TD, Cam Akers – 17 for 60 yards and 2 TDs, Rachaad White – 22 for 105 yards, Josh Jacobs – 33 for 229 yards and 2 TDs
• D’Onta Foreman has gone over 100 rushing yards in four of last six games. During that time frame, the Panthers are -12% pass rate over expectation and 30th in early-down pass rate under neutral game script conditions.
• The 3.5-point spread suggests at least a close enough back-and-forth contest where Foreman can deliver a solid fantasy outing.

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA)

• Raheem Mostert started Week 13 and went 7-30-0 rushing with zero targets. Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed once for 3 yards and earned two targets.
• Mostert also played the most snaps (61% vs 37%) and ran more routes. He saw 70% of the team’s backfield opportunities as a result, which was different from how he was used weeks prior, even before his injury.
• What should not be overlooked is that Mostert has started in all three games that both he and Wilson have been healthy for. Wilson’s role only increased in Week 10 versus Cleveland (which Mostert also started) and when he had the backfield to himself versus the Texans. Mostert missed the Houston matchup with a knee injury, which he presumably could have suffered in his last game played versus the Browns.
• With 6 teams on a bye in Week 14, you can probably just start both of them versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense that struggles immensely versus stopping the run.
• They are allowing a league-high 5.6 yards per carry and 1.96 yards allowed before contact per attempt.
• However, based on the recent usage and healthy status of Mostert, he would be my preferred Dolphins running back to start in the plus-matchup.
• Although head coach Mike McDaniel has been vocal about viewing Mostert and Wilson as co-starters, both are in play. After the Bears game, McDaniel said there will be times when both guys become aware that one guy is feeling it and the team is going to ride that player.
• Wilson (2.42, 2nd) and Mostert (1.68, 12th) rank among the league leaders in rushing yards before contact per attempt

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)

• The Chiefs rank fourth in the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to slot WRs.
• 5th in fantasy points overall allowed to the WR position on the season and since Week 10.
• Jerry Jeudy was a perfect 4-for-4 for 65 yards in his return to the starting lineup in Week 13.
• It’s an impressive stat line when you consider Jeudy was limited to just 38% route participation in his return from injury.
• He was hyper-targeted on 40% of his routes. Expect his volume and production to increase with more playing time further removed from injury.
• No Courtland Sutton ensures that Jeudy should see a boatload of volume in a plus-matchup.
• In Jeudy’s six healthy games played this season he has averaged a 22% target share (7.5 targets), 70 receiving yards, 4.5 catches, and 14.5 PPR points per game.
• He is also PFF’s 3rd-highest graded WR this season vs man coverage. Per Jordan Vanek of the 33rd team, the Chiefs have played man coverage at one of the highest rates over the last few weeks.

DJ Chark (WR – DET)

• DJ Chark got in on the fun as well in Week 13 going 5-98 on 6 targets while running a route on a team-high 95% of dropbacks.
• He led the Lions with a 47% air yards share.
• Chark should be a high-priority waiver wire target and highly-coveted starting option with the Minnesota Vikings up next in Week 14.
• They have allowed the most fantasy points per game to WRs since Week 6 and have also allowed the most fantasy points to perimeter WRs, where Chark usually lines up.

Chris Godwin (WR – TB)

• Chris Godwin is set to SMASH as the 49ers can’t stop slot WRs.
• Dating back to Week 7 when Jimmie Ward took over starting slot coverage duties: Last in fantasy points allowed to slot WRs.
• Ward has allowed 28 completions for 262 yards and 2 TDs on 29 targets from the slot (97%).
• Godwin owns a 26% target share since Week 6, averaging 11.5 targets per game.

TIGHT ENDS

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)

• T.J. Hockenson finished with just 4 catches for 33 yards on 6 targets (18% target share) in Week 13.
• However, he still played 90% of the snaps and ran a route on 93% of dropbacks. He’ll bounce back with that elite level of usage.
• The Lions are awful versus TEs: 5th in fantasy points allowed, 5th highest catch rate and third-most receiving TDs.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN)

• For the second week in a row rookie tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo out-produced Austin Hooper.
• Both saw 5 targets (25% target share), but Okonkwo compiled 68 yards on just 4 catches.
• He leads all TEs in yards per reception (18.3) and ranks fourth overall in that category. 2nd in team target share over the last 2 games (17%).
• Okonkwo also played more snaps (58%) and nearly matched Hooper in route participation (57% vs 60%).
• Sneaky player to target off waivers and start for any TE-needy teams
• The Jaguars versus TEs this season: 31st in DVOA. 3rd in yards per reception and 7th in yards allowed.