Dynasty ADP is a wild thing to follow. As we head into startup season, I wanted to take a look at the latest ADP from Dynasty League Football (DLF) which runs its own mock drafts to find its own data. These drafts are done with real humans on MyFantasyLeague.com and are generally considered pretty helpful as a tool to help determine community values. The January 2023 mock draft data just came out and I have some thoughts.
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For this article, I’m going to be looking at the 1QB mock draft data from six mock drafts. Let’s get into it!
Quarterback
Josh Allen (BUF) Over Patrick Mahomes (KC) at the Top
WOW. This is crazy to me. Obviously, these mock drafts were done before Josh Allen’s subpar playoff performance, but even before that, putting him over Mahomes was a bold move. Allen went as early as 16th overall in one draft and Mahomes went as late as 53rd in another draft. That’s quite the gap. If you can get Mahomes that late I’m all for it, but there’s very little chance I’m taking Allen in the second round of a 1QB dynasty startup right now.
Justin Fields (CHI) Over Lamar Jackson (BAL) at QB7
Fields had a very dominant 2022 season on a terrible NFL team while Jackson had a very lackluster 2022 season on an above-average team. That being said, seeing Fields over Jackson feels weird to me. I think a lot of this is due to the uncertainty of Jackson’s future in Baltimore and Fields’ stability in Chicago. Still, both are mobile QBs that I wouldn’t mind starting as my QB in most 1QB leagues. Personally, I just like Jackson’s resume a little more than Fields’ as we head into 2023.
Trey Lance (SF) as QB13, Brock Purdy (SF) as QB17
To me, this speaks to the chaos that is about to come for the San Francisco 49ers. They spent a king’s ransom to trade up for Lance, but Mr. Irrelevant (Purdy) has handled things very nicely under center himself. Having both in the QB2 range just shows that most managers are planting a flag on one or the other being the starter, and once we know which one it is for sure I wouldn’t be shocked to see them in the top 12 QBs in startups. For now, it’s just wild to see how far up the ranks Purdy has risen in such a short time.
Running Back
Travis Etienne (JAC) Over Austin Ekeler (LAC) and Najee Harris (PIT)
No hate to Etienne here, but both Ekeler and Harris were in that top tier at RB just six months ago. Ekeler is getting a little older but the team leaned on him again in 2022. His RB2 finish in most fantasy formats proves that. Harris, on the other hand, was an ascending player heading into 2022 but being on a down team with a rookie QB has really hurt his upside. The fact that Etienne is going ahead of both is interesting to me but at the same time, I understand it. Etienne’s floor is likely higher at this point, and in dynasty, RBs come and go quickly. It’s usually better to grab one on the way up than on the way down in a startup.
Derrick Henry (TEN) Down to RB14
Speaking of “on the way down” we have King Henry at RB14. The Titans haven’t hidden the fact that Henry is the focal point of their offense, but maybe that tune is changing. The team didn’t do all that well with Ryan Tannehill or Malik Willis under center, and Henry is definitely not getting any younger. There’s a lot of uncertainty with Henry heading into 2023, but I’d be happy to snag him as my RB2 in a startup if he falls to me in the 4th or 5th round.
Dameon Pierce (HOU) at RB20
Everyone’s favorite rookie is officially on the radar now as a true RB2. Pierce was selected as a flyer in most rookie drafts and proved to be a league-winning selection for many teams. I don’t mind the value here, but I’m still nervous that the Texans aren’t very good in 2023 and Pierce doesn’t see a lot of red zone touches. He’s going ahead of stalwart RBs like Aaron Jones (RB22) and Alvin Kamara (RB23) which makes sense but feels a little rich to me given his risk. We will have to wait and see how things fall, but RB20 is high praise for the dynasty community given where he was going less than a year ago.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson (MIN) is the 1.01 in 1QB Over Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
Jefferson is at the very top of the startup ADP, and rightfully so. He dominated again in 2022 and doesn’t appear to be slowing down at all. He was selected first overall in four of the five mock drafts done by DLF with Chase being selected first in the other. These two are likely going to battle for that top spot all offseason and I don’t think either is a bad choice. Both are young receivers with a long, bright future, but I think Chase’s playoff stats could push him to the top spot once February ADP comes out.
Tee Higgins (CIN) at WR8
Chase’s teammate comes in at WR8, which I think is a little shocking. Higgins would be a team’s WR1 if it weren’t for Chase, and I don’t think anyone’s doubting that. However, having two Bengals receivers in the top 8 feels risky to me. Sure, Higgins performs well, but his upside is capped when Chase is across the field from him. I think Higgins is a terrific WR2 for fantasy as well as the NFL. If I’m relying on him as my WR1 I might feel a little less confident. Not to say he’s not a terrific asset in dynasty, I just like my WR1 to be a true game-changer, and while Higgins is in Cincinnati, I’m not 100% sure that’s the case.
Jameson Williams (DET) Over Cooper Kupp (LAR)
This was another one that blew my mind based on how far both values have changed. Kupp was the WR1 in a lot of rankings leading into 2022 but his injury really derailed that. On the flip side, Williams’ injury really hindered his ranking leading into the season and now that he’s back he’s seeing his value go up. I think this is a prime case of recency bias that puts Williams over Kupp. The upside is there with both but the injury history is there too. I’m usually a fan of the proven asset so I like Kupp more, but this just shows how the fantasy community has soured on him and really grown fond of the new toy in Detroit after a single season.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts (ATL) Is Still the TE1
Part of me is shocked at this and part of me is not. Pitts had an amazing 2021 as a rookie, but his 2022 left many dynasty managers wanting more. He was a true bust in redraft this season and once he went on IR his dynasty value started to tank as well. Now that points don’t matter anymore I fully expect Pitts to be back in the TE1 conversation, but I didn’t expect him to be the TE1 overall already. Personally, I think Kelce and Andrews both deserve to be ahead of Pitts but I also get the allure of that rookie Pitts we saw in 2021. If he comes back, putting him at TE1 will be a no-brainer. Until then? I’m not so sure.
Evan Engram (JAC) at TE9
Much like Etienne, I think this could be some recency bias for a Jaguars team that got hot late in the year. Engram isn’t bad, but he’s hot and cold. That being said, most of the tight ends outside the top tier all have their flaws, so who’s to say who’s right or wrong here? Engram just worries me from a consistency standpoint. He has the talent but can he get the ball enough in an offense that seems to want to spread it around? I’m just not sold on him enough yet. I don’t mind taking a flyer on him though if the price is right, so maybe TE9 is about right after all.
Trey McBride (ARI) at TE14 and Zach Ertz (ARI) at TE24
This one reminds me a little bit of the 49ers QB issue I mentioned earlier. If Ertz is done in Arizona or decides to retire for some reason, then McBride is a great TE2 choice with TE1 upside. If Ertz returns and is back to his old self, then he would be the one with TE1 upside. While we’re stuck in this purgatory, both are going in the TE2 range, which makes sense. Personally, I prefer McBride, as do the drafters, but Ertz going as TE24 feels low as well. I’m hoping we get some clarity in the coming months to help us decide, but if not, these two could be eating into each other’s upside come September, which is not good.
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Andrew Hall is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, follow him @AndrewHallFF.
