We’re running a fun little game here at FantasyPros called the Perfect Draft Challenge in which you get a do-over on 2022 fantasy drafts. You already have the answer key because you know how the season turned out. It’s just a matter of picking the right players in the right rounds.
We provide you with every player’s 2022 ADP, so you know approximately when players will come off the board. Just understand that our mock draft machine won’t be completely faithful to ADP data — which is how real-life drafts work, too. You might think you can wait another round before grabbing RB Josh Jacobs, only to be sniped two picks before you planned on taking him.
You can take as many stabs at the Perfect Draft Challenge as you like. Try it from various draft slots. Test out various strategies.
After you draft your team, we calculate your optimal lineup for weeks 1-17 of the 2022 season, best-ball style. Your score is the number of points your team scored during the season. If you score at least 2,500 points, share your score on Twitter or Instagram, and fill out our prize form, you’ll be entered in a drawing to win a five-year premium subscription to FantasyPros.
- NFL Free Agency Primers
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Underdog Best Ball Strategy
- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
5 Forward-Looking Lessons from the Perfect Draft Challenge
You might look at this purely as a backward-looking exercise that rehashes last season’s results. Sure, but the game offers some lessons that we can carry into 2023 as we contemplate how we’ll build our rosters fantasy rosters this summer.
Here are four such lessons:
Travis Kelce is worth the price
Kelce’s average draft position last year was 14th overall in half-point PPR leagues, according to FantasyPros ADP data. He finished 10th in fantasy scoring among non-quarterbacks. What makes Kelce valuable is how much more productive he is than anyone else at the TE position. Kelce finished with 262.3 half-point PPR fantasy points last year. The next closest was T.J. Hockenson with 172.4. That’s 66% of Kelce’s point total. The scoring gap between Kelce and Hockenson (88.9 fantasy points) was greater than the total fantasy points scored by Hunter Henry, Hayden Hurst, Mike Gesicki, Darren Waller or Kyle Pitts last season.
I long resisted the temptation to take Kelce in the first round of fantasy drafts because I feared that it would leave me playing catch-up at RB and WR. But Kelce lets you emphatically address the most problematic position in fantasy football, giving you a massive TE advantage. The reward of having Kelce at tight end outweighs the risk of falling behind the curve at RB or WR by sacrificing a first-round pick at another position.
Get a linchpin WR early
The top eight WRs in fantasy points per game last year — Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb – all had top-11 ADPs. It’s difficult, if not impossible, to find high-end WR production in the middle and late rounds.
The RB dead zone is alive
You may have seen fantasy analysts discuss the “RB dead zone,” which is generally considered to be Round 3 through Round 6. It’s referred to as such because running backs taken in that range in fantasy drafts have collectively provided a poor return on investment in recent years. But the dead zone had a strong pulse in 2022.
Jacobs, who finished RB3 in fantasy scoring, had a fifth-round ADP last year. James Conner (overall ADP: 28) might not be a guy you’ll target in our Perfect Draft Challenge, but he finished RB9 in fantasy points per game last season. Breece Hall (overall ADP: 40) was averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before a torn ACL prematurely ended his rookie season. While it’s true that the hit rate on running backs drafted in this range isn’t great, there are nevertheless some RB diamonds to be mined in Rounds 3-6.
Highly drafted rookie WRs are good buys
Wide receivers with first-round NFL Draft capital are good bets in fantasy. Chris Olave had a 2022 preseason ADP of WR44 (113th overall), and Garrett Wilson‘s ADP was WR49 (137th overall). Wilson finished WR19 in half-point PPR scoring, and Olave finished WR25 despite missing two games).
In 2020, Justin Jefferson’s preseason ADP was WR49 (123rd overall), and he finished WR6 in fantasy scoring. Jaylen Waddle‘s 2021 ADP was WR46 (114th overall), and he finished WR17 even after missing a pair of games. If you’re looking for a good way to spend a middle-round fantasy pick, spend it on a rookie WRs who was a top-40 pick in the NFL Draft.
Throw late darts at RB, not WR
In our Perfect Draft Challenge, Jerick McKinnon and Tyler Allgeier are good late-round targets because they chipped in some smash weeks that will boost your season score in the contest’s best-ball format. This is not a new phenomenon. Every year we see late-round running backs come out of the fog to provide bursts of needle-moving fantasy value. Good luck finding late-round wide receivers who’ll do the same.
Hunter Renfrow was a rare exception in 2021, finishing WR11 in half-point PPR scoring after checking in with an ADP of WR95 (341st overall). But in 2022, no wide receiver with an overall ADP beyond 200 finished as a top-25 fantasy scorer at the position, and only Zay Jones (overall ADP: 239) finished in the top 30.
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
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