MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Saturday (5/27)

I had one of my best weeks of the season last week, but this week has been a struggle. It’s hard to understand the issue, but that’s just the natural progression of playing MLB DFS. You’ll inevitably have some significant swings in a 162-game season, but you have to trust the process and keep grinding away. I hope the prep for these articles will get me back on track because I love to zone in for you guys and break down these weekend slates!

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

This is a brilliant slate from a pitching perspective. We have three top-notch aces in wonderful spots and one more GPP option in one of the best possible matchups. It will be tough to fade the top three guys, though, because all of them have the potential to go nuts. Our top recommendation was our leading pick from last weekend, and we have to go right back to him in the exact same matchup.

Cash Game Recommendations:

Framber Valdez (HOU) at OAK

We had Framber in here last week against Oakland, and we’re obviously going to use him again. The Cy Young candidate threw a complete game shutout in that masterpiece, scoring 58 FanDuel points. He actually had 67 FD points just three starts ago, and we talked about how this guy has all, but a handful of quality starts over the last two years. That should be a guarantee against Oakland, who rank last in almost every offensive statistic since the beginning of last year.

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. MIA

Shohei is the best all-around player in baseball, but he might be a better pitcher than a hitter at this point. The ace has a 3.05 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 12.2 K/9 rate. That’s what he’s been doing for two years now, generating even better averages at Angel Stadium. A home matchup with Miami should keep Shohei rolling, with the Marlins ranked 24th in xwOBA and 27th in runs scored. We also don’t mind that Ohtani is a -200 favorite in this game.

GPP Recommendations:

Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. PIT

Castillo is in a bit of a rough stretch right now, but a home matchup with Pittsburgh should get him back on track. The Pirates come into this matchup losing 16 of their last 21 games, averaging about two runs per game in those losses. That’s scary against a beast like Castillo, collecting a 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP since the start of last year. He’s also going to enter this matchup as a -210 favorite, with the Pirates projected to score just three runs.

Josiah Gray (WAS) at KC

Is Gray in the middle of a breakout? This was once one of the top prospects in baseball, and he’s been excellent since the opener. Gray has allowed three runs or fewer in all nine starts since his season debut, totaling a 2.05 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in that span. That fantastic form should be easy to duplicate against Kansas City, with the Royals ranked 26th in runs scored, 27th in OPS, and 28th in wOBA.

Top Lineup Stacks

New York Mets (vs. Chase Anderson)

• Road (Coors Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/NYM -200

It’s always easy to recommend opposing offenses in Coors Field, and it becomes much simpler when they face a guy like Chase Anderson. The journeyman has some solid numbers this year, but regression will hit him like a rock. He had a 6.81 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last three years, and there’s no chance he will survive in Coors Field. That’s why the Mets are projected to score nearly six runs here, the largest team total on the slate!

Houston Astros (vs. NA)

• Road (Oakland Coliseum)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/HOU -300

The A’s have a team ERA above 7.00, and they’re on pace to set some records for their worst pitching averages in the sport. That’s particularly terrifying here because Oakland is not sure who will start. They keep bringing in minor leaguers to cope, but they all continue to get blown up. That’s bad news against the Astros, who have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.

Texas Rangers (vs. Dean Kremer)

• Road (Camden Yards)
• Value: High
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/BAL -110

The Rangers have developed into one of the best offenses in MLB. They lead the league in runs scored while ranked second in OBP. It’s been fun watching them kill opposing pitchers, and that will likely happen against Kremer. The Orioles righty has a 4.61 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

Core Studs

• It’s tough to fade Alvarez right now. The slugger has established himself as an elite bat, flirting with a .400 OBP and 1.000 OPS throughout his career. He’s rolling right now, too, registering a .434 OBP and 1.153 OPS across his last 18 outings. There’s no chance this A’s pitching staff slows him down, no matter who toes the rubber.
• Alonso hitting in Coors Field sounds like a cheat code. He’s leading baseball with 19 homers, homering in six of his last nine games. That absurd stretch should carry over well in Colorado, especially since he faces a washed-up Anderson.
• The Rangers have been the best offense in baseball, and Seager is at the heart of their lineup. He’s got a ridiculous .348 AVG, .591 SLG, and 1.009 OPS on the year, homering in three of his last six outings. He’s also got the platoon advantage against the aforementioned Kremer, but splits don’t really matter when it comes to a slugger like Seager.
• Fraley is a sneaky option in this Reds lineup, but he’s been rocking right-handers all year. Not only does he bat third against righties, but Fraley also has a .387 OBP and .857 OPS against them. That’s terrible news for a struggling Jameson Taillon, tallying an 8.10 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in a nightmarish season.
• It’s been a rough start for J-Ram, but this guy is a beast, and he will get going. He’s been a Top-5 player in fantasy over the last five years, providing one of the best power-speed combos in baseball. We love him today because he gets to bat from his more favorable left side against a pitcher with a 5.29 ERA and 1.59 WHIP.

Value Plays/Punts

• Hernandez has been horrible this season, but this guy is too good to be this cheap. He’s typically a player that flirts with 35 homers and 20 steals, which we expect sooner rather than later. He’s starting to do that, generating a .311 AVG and .489 SLG across his last 12 outings. That looks even better against Roansy Contreras, compiling a 4.50 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
• Marte has been one of the most consistent hitters over the last five years, and he’s bounced back after a disappointing 2021 campaign. The second baseman is hitting .279 while totaling a .805 OPS. That’s the guy we’ve seen since 2019, posting a .852 OPS in that span. He’s also got a .377 OBP and .866 OPS across his last 23 outings and gets to face a pitcher with an ERA above 6.00.
• Vogelbach is strictly a platoon player, but he usually finds his way in there against righties. It’s easy to understand why, with DV amassing a .382 OBP and .832 OPS against righties since 2020. If he finds his way into the lineup, Vogelbach is one of the best values in this diminished price range.
• McLain is one of the top prospects in baseball, and he’s expected to stuff the stat sheet for Cincy in their two-hole. That’s what we’ve seen, with McLain scoring at least 13 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. That’s amazing from such an affordable player, and it should bode well against Taillon’s terrible totals.
• Dom Smith is always in the heart of the Nats lineup, and he’s always way too cheap. This guy is providing a .282 AVG and .364 OBP. We haven’t seen the power come around yet, but those numbers are too good for such a cheap player. Getting to face Brady Singer is the icing on the cake, with the Royals righty accruing a 7.48 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.

Hitter Strategy

This should be a fun slate to build lineups. We have three high-end pitchers that we love and numerous cheap bats to build around. Building lineups will be a breeze if Smith and Vogelbach find their way into their lineups. Those guys are way too cheap and could go off in their spectacular matchups. The teams we want to stack include the Mets, Reds, Astros, Rangers, and Red Sox. There’s plenty between all of those teams to build around, and we love pairing them with two of the aces mentioned above!

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.