Our analysts have put together fantasy football outlooks for all fantasy-relevant players. You can find them on our player pages and via our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). These will be updated throughout the preseason to help you navigate your fantasy football drafts utilizing our bevy of tools, including our FREE draft simulator and cheat sheet creator. We’ll cover players in different groups to help you identify those to target and others to avoid. Let’s take a look at players that are entering make-or-break fantasy football seasons.
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Fantasy Football Players in Make-or-Break Seasons
Here are 2023 fantasy football outlooks for players entering make-or-break seasons.
Plagued by subpar QB play for years, the Broncos viewed Russell Wilson as a potential savior and gave up a bevy of draft capital to acquire him. Wilson’s first year in Denver was bitterly disappointing, as he turned in the worst season of his 11-year career, with career lows in completion percentage (60.5%), passer rating (84.4) and touchdown passes (16), and a career high in sacks (55). Once a dangerous runner, Wilson doesn’t run as much these days, and he doesn’t escape pressure as easily. It’s possible that this accomplished passer has a bounce-back season in 2023 under the tutelage of Sean Payton, but we can’t assume that the 34-year-old Wilson will return to something close to vintage form. Approach with caution.
- Pat Fitzmaurice
With Aaron Rodgers now with the Jets, Love is expected to become the Packers’ starter in 2023 after a three-year apprenticeship. There’s precious little to go on here, as Love has made one career start (which didn’t go very well) and has attempted just 83 passes since entering the league in 2020. Love has a live arm and above-average mobility, so he has the potential to surprise, but given the lack of data to go on with Love, there’s bust potential here, too.
- Pat Fitzmaurice
Your willingness to draft Tua Tagovailoa in 2023 will likely depend on your tolerance for risk. Tua proved himself as a passer in 2022, leading all quarterbacks in passer rating (105.5), yards per attempt (8.9) and touchdown percentage (6.3%). But Tua has to be considered a concussion risk after a season in which he twice missed games due to brain injuries. He was knocked unconscious against the Bengals in Week 4 and didn’t return until Week 7. He was also placed in the concussion protocol after a Week 16 game against the Packers and missed Miami’s final two games. Were it not for concussion concerns. Tua would be drafted as a top-10 quarterback as a talented young passer in an explosive Dolphins offense that features two terrific WRs in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But with the possibility that another concussion could put Tua out of action indefinitely, it seems more sensible to regard Tua as a high-end QB2.
- Pat Fitzmaurice
Will Trey Lance be a starter when the 49ers kick off the 2023 season? It seems likely that he’ll compete with Brock Purdy for the starter’s job (assuming Purdy’s elbow has healed by late summer), and it’s possible 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will put his thumb on the scale for Purdy after the seventh-round pick from Iowa State helped guide the Niners into the playoffs. The 49ers have added Sam Darnold to the mix as well. Lance is a dangerous runner with ample arm talent, and this will be his age-23 season, so there’s plenty of time for him to make good on the potential that inspired the 49ers to give away multiple first-round draft picks in order to trade up and draft Lance. But the North Dakota State product has thrown just 420 passes since high school and still has a great deal to prove. Lance could be one of the best QB values of 2023 or a complete waste of a draft pick.
- Pat Fitzmaurice
The 2022 version of Deshaun Watson was a far cry from the early-career Watson who finished top five in QB fantasy scoring in each of his first three seasons as a starter. Amid allegations of sexual assault, Watson didn’t play in 2021 and served an 11-game suspension in 2022 before making a Week 13 debut for the Browns against his old team, the Texans. Watson was predictably rusty, producing numbers befitting a fantasy backup over a small sample size. It’s reasonable to assume that Watson will look at least a little more like the dynamic dual-threat QB he used to be in 2023, but it would be a leap of faith to assume that he’ll be as effective as he was from 2018 to 2020.
- Pat Fitzmaurice
Antonio Gibson‘s production fell off substantially in 2022 as he split work in the Commanders’ backfield with rookie Brian Robinson Jr. In Gibson’s last nine healthy games played – he missed the end of the year with a foot injury that required surgery – he and Robinson operated as fantasy RB3s as the RB34 and RB30 respectively in points per game. AG was still the much more involved receiver with an impressive 14% target share – three catches, four targets and 22 receiving yards per game – but he was out-carried 9.7 rushing attempts per game to 16.7 by Robinson. B-Rob’s status as the starter on early downs entering the season will surely make Gibson – a free agent at the end of 2023 – an enticing late-round running back option based on his pass-catching prowess and RB1 fantasy production his first two years in the league. Keep in mind, that J.D. McKissic is coming off a neck injury with an out in his contract, slating Gibson to reprise the full-blown receiving role for Washington. Gibson’s 80.5 PFF receiving grade ranked third among all RBs in 2022.
- Andrew Erickson
Davis didn’t live up to the deafening hype last year. He finished as the WR36 in fantasy with an 18.2% target share (43rd). He remains Josh Allen‘s deep threat of choice, ranking 12th in deep targets and sixth in aDOT among wideouts. Davis has proven that he isn’t a high-end target share earner. He was 68th in target per route run rate last year. Davis remains tied to Allen’s cannon of an arm, so spike weeks will come again in 2023. At this point, you’re kidding yourself if you think he will turn into a consistent WR2 type of player. Davis is a WR3/4 that can win you a week when he’s locked in. I’m more inclined to get my Davis exposure than in redraft this year. The addition of Dalton Kincaid and James Cook taking another step forward could make his peaks and valleys more pronounced this season.
- Derek Brown
While consensus is ready to toss in the bag on Chase Claypool, I’m not. So quickly, everyone forgets that Claypool is an uber-athlete. His 90th percentile or higher speed and burst scores can create big plays at the drop of a hat. His rookie season marks of a 25.2% target per route run rate (15th-best) and 0.5 fantasy points per route run (14th-best) were the early signs of big time talent. Has his value dropped further after a down 2022 season? Yep. That’s exactly why his ADP has dipped to the basement where it resides. Claypool showed promise of fulfilling his rookie season promise in three games with the Bears, in which he played at least 63% of the snaps. In that small three-game sample, he saw a 22.1% target share, a 50% end zone target share, 1.77 yards per route run, and a 28% target per route run rate. Claypool is one of the best WR5 upside darts to toss this year.
- Derek Brown
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