Several factors go into building a winning best ball team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite best ball roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today I break down the NFC East teams: the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, and Washington Commanders.
- AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- NFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Best Ball Busts & League Winners: NFC East
The ADP used for this article comes from Underdog Fantasy.
Potential Bust Candidates
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): ADP 106.1 | QB12
Last year Prescott was the QB19, averaging 16.6 fantasy points per game. While he missed five games with a thumb injury, the veteran was only the QB14 on a points-per-game basis last season. More importantly, the star quarterback’s production slipped without Amari Cooper. Prescott averaged 278.1 passing yards, 2.3 passing touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions per game in 2021. By comparison, he averaged 238.3 passing yards, 1.9 passing touchdowns, and 1.3 interceptions per game last year. Meanwhile, the Cowboys want to run the ball more this season. Prescott lacks the upside to warrant his ADP in best ball drafts. Fantasy players should instead draft Kirk Cousins (ADP 112.7) a few picks later.
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG): ADP 19.9 | RB6
Thankfully the superstar stayed healthy last season after dealing with injuries over the previous three years. Barkley was the RB6 in 2022, averaging 16 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, his production declined in the second half. He was the RB4, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game and 4.7 yards per rushing attempt over the first 10 weeks. By comparison, Barkley was the RB16, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game and four yards per rushing attempt over the final eight weeks last year. While he’s eased concerns with his new contract, given his second-half struggles last year, Barkley is on my do-not-draft list.
D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI): ADP 78.2 | RB23
Swift has struggled to stay healthy and handle a full workload. Yet, his success in the passing game has kept him in the RB2 conversation. The veteran has averaged 3.9 receptions on 5.1 targets for 30 receiving yards per game for his career. However, Swift won’t have that level of targets in Philadelphia. Last year the Eagles’ running backs accounted for only an 11 percent target share. Furthermore, the team has two elite wide receivers and a star tight end, something the Detroit Lions didn’t have the past few years. While Swift now has one of the top offensive lines in the NFL, his drop in passing game work makes him a reach as the 23rd running back off the board.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS): ADP 111.7 | RB37
Everyone was excited about Robinson last season. Unfortunately, he got shot during a carjacking and missed the first four weeks. Robinson was only the RB41 in 2022, averaging nine half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he lacked the “pop” or “spike” weeks, scoring more than 12.1 fantasy points only twice. Meanwhile, the Commanders drafted Chris Rodriguez Jr. in April. The rookie has a similar game to Robinson and could cut into his role. More importantly, Antonio Gibson has gotten all the hype this offseason. Damien Harris and De’Von Achane have a lower ADP than Robinson. Yet, I would draft both before the second-year back.
Potential League Winners
Malik Davis (RB – DAL): ADP 214.4 | RB68
My favorite late-round target in best ball drafts is Davis. Dallas released Ezekiel Elliott this offseason, creating an opening behind Tony Pollard on the depth chart. Since Mike McCarthy joined the team in 2020, the No. 2 running back has averaged 141.3 rushing attempts per season, seeing at least 101 every year. More importantly, Davis showed potential as an undrafted free agent, averaging 4.2 yards per rushing attempt and 2.1 yards after contact per attempt last season. Furthermore, over 10 percent of his rushing attempts went for more than 10 yards as a rookie. Meanwhile, Pollard is coming off a fractured fibula. Davis should have low-end standalone flex value this year unless Dallas re-signs Elliott.
Parris Campbell (WR – NYG): ADP 177.7 | WR78
New York’s wide receiver room is the worst in the NFL, as the team lacks a clear-cut No. 1 caliber option. Darren Waller will lead the Giants in targets this season if he can stay healthy. While the team’s receiving options are limited, Campbell has the potential to outperform his ADP. Last year the former Indianapolis Colt receiver had 63 receptions on 91 targets for 623 receiving yards and three touchdowns, all career highs despite playing on a dysfunctional offense. More importantly, he stayed healthy after missing nearly 70 percent of the games over the first three years of his NFL career. While he won’t become a fantasy star, Campbell has top-30 upside.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI): ADP 165.7 | RB52
The Eagles lost Miles Sanders in free agency after the veteran’s career year in 2022. Philadelphia replaced the former Penn State star with D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny. Unfortunately, they are two of the most injury-prone running backs in the NFL. Swift has struggled to stay on the field with a full workload. Meanwhile, Penny has missed nearly half of the games in his career because of injury. Therefore, no one should be surprised if both running backs miss time this season, leaving Gainwell to pick up the slack. Last year he finished second among running backs in rushing attempts and could have league-winning upside, given the guys ahead of him on the depth chart.
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS): ADP 73.2 | WR38
Last year’s draft class had several talented wide receivers. Yet, Dotson quietly led all rookies in receiving touchdowns (seven) despite missing five games and playing several others limited. Removing his first three games back from a nagging hamstring injury (where he played under 67 percent of the snaps in every contest), Dotson would have averaged 12.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season. Over a 17-game pace, he would have been the WR11. After spending most of last year behind Curtis Samuel on the depth chart, the former Penn State star will be the No. 2 wide receiver in 2023. While he won’t supplant Terry McLaurin as the team’s top wide receiver, Dotson has significant upside given his seventh-round ADP.