Several factors go into building a winning best-ball team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite best ball roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today I break down the NFC North teams: the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and Minnesota Vikings.
The ADP used for this article comes from Underdog Fantasy.
- AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- NFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Busts & League Winners: NFC North
Potential Bust Candidates
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI): ADP 118.8 | RB40
When David Montgomery left this offseason, Herbert’s fantasy value skyrocketed until the team signed D’Onta Foreman. Even with the veteran added to the roster, Herbert was still the No. 1 running back on the depth. The former Virginia Tech star has played five career games without Montgomery, averaging 21.4 touches for 95.4 scrimmage yards and 12 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. However, his fantasy value took a hit after the Bears drafted Roschon Johnson. The rookie has been the talk of the offseason in Chicago. While Herbert still could win the starting role, fantasy players should draft Foreman or Johnson instead, thanks to their later ADP.
Jameson Williams (WR – DET): ADP 97.9 | WR49
Fantasy players knew Williams would have a limited rookie season coming off the torn ACL. However, the former Alabama star had only one reception on nine targets in six games. More importantly, the former first-round pick will miss the first six games this year because of a suspension. Meanwhile, the Lions used two of their top draft picks this year on Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta. The two rookies will have significant roles this season. While his long-term future is still bright, Williams is on my do-not-draft list in best ball leagues because of the suspension.
AJ Dillon (RB – GB): ADP 102.2 | RB34
Many had high hopes for Dillon this year, as the fantasy community expected the Packers to release Aaron Jones this offseason. However, the veteran running back will return in 2023, limiting Dillon’s upside as the No. 2 guy. Last year the former Boston College star had seven rushing touchdowns, a career-high. Yet, he averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2021. Furthermore, only 8.1% of Dillon’s rushing attempts went for 10 or more yards last season. More importantly, the Packers improved their weapons in the offseason, spending three Day 2 picks on pass catchers. Samaje Perine and De’Von Achane have a later ADP than Dillon. Yet, I’ll take both over the former Boston College star.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN): ADP 51.4 | TE3
Last year Hockenson had the best fantasy finish of his career, ending the season as the TE2. The veteran had 86 receptions on 129 targets for 914 receiving yards and six touchdowns, all career highs. He also averaged 10.1 half-point PPR antsy points per game, the highest average of his career. However, Hockenson scored over 9.4 fantasy in only 30% of the 10 games with the Vikings last season. More importantly, the team added Jordan Addison this offseason. The rookie will have more of a role than Adam Thielen did last year. There is no reason why fantasy players should draft Hockenson ahead of George Kittle (ADP 61.1) and Kyle Pitts (68.7).
Potential League Winners
Justin Fields (QB – CHI): ADP 49.6 | QB6
Fields had a historic year in 2022. He had 1,143 rushing yards, the second-most ever in a season by a quarterback. Furthermore, the second-year star had 379 more rushing yards than any other quarterback and the seventh-most yards in the NFL. Fields’ elite rushing ability led to him finishing last season as the QB6, averaging 19.7 fantasy points per game. However, the former Ohio State star finished 26th in passing yards (2,242). Thankfully, the Bears added DJ Moore in the offseason, giving Fields the star wide receiver needed for a third-year breakout. Unlike the other elite quarterbacks, fantasy players can land the former Ohio State star in the fifth round.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET): ADP 163.1 | TE20
Detroit has a lack of upside pass catchers outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Last season he had twice as many targets as any other player on the team, seeing 76 more than D’Andre Swift (70). While Jahmyr Gibbs has gotten plenty of hype as he will fill Swift’s role in the backfield, LaPorta is a sneaky under-the-radar fantasy pick. The rookie had a productive college career despite playing with awful quarterbacks, totaling 153 receptions for 1,786 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Meanwhile, Detroit got nine receiving touchdowns from their tight ends not named T.J. Hockenson last year. The rookie is one of my favorite late-round tight ends to target in best ball drafts.
Romeo Doubs (WR – GB): ADP 120.4 | WR56
Last year the former Nevada star was a popular sleeper candidate following his impressive training camp and preseason. Unfortunately, Doubs ended his rookie year as the WR76, averaging 6.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he was better before suffering an ankle injury in Week 9, averaging 7.7 fantasy points per contest. Fantasy players got turned off to the Packers’ receivers after the team traded away Aaron Rodgers. Yet, Doubs has reportedly been Jordan Love‘s go-to guy during offseason workouts. Furthermore, head coach Matt LaFleur recently praised the young star. While he won’t pass Christian Watson as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, Doubs has almost as much upside at a much lower ADP.
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN): ADP 72.5 | WR37
The Vikings released Adam Thielen this offseason. Last year the veteran was the WR30, averaging 8.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he finished 28th among wide receivers with 107 targets. With Thielen now in Carolina, Addison will take over as the No. 2 wide receiver in Minnesota. The rookie had eight receiving touchdowns last season at USC, averaging 15 yards per reception. More importantly, he averaged 2.99 yards per route run last year, a career-high. With defenses focused on Justin Jefferson, Addison should have plenty of one-on-one matchups to take advantage of. There is no reason why the rookie should be coming off the board after Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP 62.4) and Kadarius Toney (71.6).