Several factors go into building a winning best-ball team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite best ball roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today I break down the NFC South teams: the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The ADP used for this article comes from Underdog Fantasy.
- AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- NFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Busts & League Winners: NFC South
Potential Bust Candidates
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL): ADP 68.5 | TE5
While in the minority, I am a big fan of the Atlanta offense this season. I have significant exposure to everyone on the Falcons, especially Pitts. However, he is the most likely bust candidate on the team. The former Gator had a productive rookie season, ending the year as the TE7, averaging 8.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the second-year tight end struggled last season. Pitts missed seven games with a knee injury. More importantly, he averaged only 6.2 fantasy points per game. While Marcus Mariota was awful targeting the young tight end last season, will Desmond Ridder be better in 2023? I believe he will be, but the question is, how much better?
DJ Chark (WR – CAR): ADP 158.3 | WR69
Carolina lacks a prototypical bust candidate, as Miles Sanders is the only Panther with an ADP inside the top 140 picks. However, Chark is the Panthers’ wide receiver fantasy players should avoid drafting. The veteran has bounced around the NFL over the past few years. Meanwhile, Adam Thielen will be the No. 1 wide receiver this season, with Terrace Marshall Jr. and Jonathan Mingo being the guys of the future. More importantly, the two young receivers have been the talk of offseason programming, while Chark’s name has barely gotten mentioned. Instead of drafting the veteran in the 14th round, fantasy players should wait and pick Marshall nearly 50 picks later.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): ADP 91.7 | RB29
The veteran’s ADP is rising, but a suspension is still coming. Unfortunately, that’s not the only reason I won’t draft Kamara this season. The veteran running back averaged 12.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and had only two rushing touchdowns last year, both career lows. Yet, the former Tennessee star was a touchdown machine, scoring 13 or more in three of his first four years in the NFL. Unfortunately, Kamara has 13 total touchdowns over the past two years. Meanwhile, New Orleans added Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller this offseason. Fantasy players should draft James Cook and Antonio Gibson with a later ADP over the veteran running back.
Rachaad White (RB – TB): ADP 81.6 | RB25
Fantasy players were excited after the Buccaneers released Leonard Fournette earlier this offseason. With the veteran and his 262 touches from last season off the roster, White became the No. 1 running back on the team. However, fantasy players should avoid drafting the second-year running back. Last season he averaged only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt and 2.3 yards after contact per attempt. The former Arizona State star also lacked explosiveness. Only 6.2% of his rushing attempts went for 10 or more yards, and only 3.1% were for 15 or more yards as a rookie. James Conner and Isiah Pacheco have a later ADP than White. I would draft both over the former Arizona State star.
Potential League Winners
Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL): ADP 144.1 | RB46
Last year Allgeier had an excellent rookie season. Despite playing over 60% of the snaps in only two contests, the former BYU star was the RB27, averaging 9.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he was one of 15 running backs with over 1,000 rushing yards, including only one of two rookies. Unfortunately, that didn’t stop the Falcons from using the eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Bijan Robinson. While Allgeier’s fantasy value has taken a massive hit, the second-year player is arguably the top handcuff in the NFL. The former BYU star will be a league winner if Robinson misses significant time.
Miles Sanders (RB – CAR): ADP 64.4 | RB20
The former Penn State was awful in 2021, scoring zero touchdowns. Thankfully, Sanders bounced back last year, finishing as the RB13, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. After failing to find the end zone two years ago, he had 11 rushing touchdowns in 2022. However, Sanders has even more upside with the Panthers. Last year Jalen Hurts limited his rushing upside by totaling 13 touchdowns, the second-most in the NFL. That won’t be the case in Carolina. Meanwhile, running backs averaged 116.5 targets per year in the four full years Frank Reich was with the Indianapolis Colts. Don’t be surprised when Sanders has a career season in the passing game.
Juwan Johnson (TE – NO): ADP 174.2 | TE21
New Orleans recently brought back Jimmy Graham despite the veteran turning 37 in November and not playing last season. He is more likely not to make the final roster than have any fantasy impact this year. Meanwhile, Johnson led the Saints in receiving touchdowns while finishing top three in receiving yards and targets in 2022. Furthermore, he finished third among tight ends in receiving touchdowns. While the team brought back Michael Thomas, the veteran has played only 20% of the games over the past three years. More importantly, Darren Waller was Derek Carr‘s favorite weapon in Las Vegas. Johnson could quickly build the same connection with the new starting quarterback.
Mike Evans (WR – TB): ADP 67.9 | WR35
Unfortunately, the Buccaneers are going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at the quarterback position. The change has scared the fantasy football community away from drafting Evans this year. However, we made the same mistake with Amari Cooper last season. Meanwhile, Evans was the WR16 in 2022, averaging 12.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Last season was the ninth consecutive year the veteran wide receiver had at least 1,000 receiving yards. While the change at quarterback is less than ideal, Evans is still one of the top big-play wide receivers in the NFL. His spike weeks are worth the down weeks in best-ball leagues.