Several factors go into building a winning best-ball team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite best ball roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today, I break down the AFC West teams: the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, and Los Angeles Chargers.
The ADP used for this article comes from Underdog Fantasy.
- AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- NFC Busts & League Winners: East | North | South | West
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Best Ball Busts & League Winners: AFC West
Potential Bust Candidates
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN): ADP 39.7 | WR20
While he will be Denver’s No. 1 wide receiver this season, Jeudy is a tad overpriced. The former Alabama star has struggled to stay healthy in his career. He was the WR21 last season, averaging 11.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, half of his touchdowns and 17.2% of his fantasy points came in the Week 14 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. By comparison, Jeudy would have been the WR27 last season without that performance. Furthermore, the veteran had only five games last year with over 13.3 fantasy points. While he will be a productive fantasy receiver, give me Drake London (ADP 42.9) and DJ Moore (46.9) over Jeudy.
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC): ADP 83.7 | RB26
Kansas City’s backfield was a roller coaster for fantasy players last year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire started the season of fire but tailed off. Meanwhile, Jerick McKinnon was the highest-scoring Chiefs running back. However, Pacheco is the first one getting drafted this year. Pacheco was the RB35 as a rookie, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Some believe he will have a larger role in 2023. Yet, he had double-digit rushing attempts in over half the games last season. More importantly, it’s hard to trust Kansas City’s backfield after seeing what happened a year ago. Javonte Williams and James Cook have a lower ADP than Pacheco. I’ll draft both before the second-year man.
Jakobi Meyers (WR – LV): ADP 124.3 | WR58
The most important thing to remember with best ball leagues is to target players with the ability to have massive performances. However, that’s the opposite of Meyers. The veteran receiver scored over 14 half-point PPR fantasy points in only three games last season. By comparison, he had seven games with under 8.3 fantasy points. Unfortunately, the change of scenery this offseason won’t help Meyers’ fantasy value. Last year Davante Adams had 180 targets, the second-most in the NFL and a career-high. Meanwhile, the veteran averaged 7.2 targets per game over the past two years with the New England Patriots. Therefore, fantasy players can find a better value than Meyers in the 11th round of their drafts.
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC): ADP 7.5 | RB2
Last year, Ekeler was the RB1, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While the superstar running back won’t be a bust in the traditional sense, the veteran has some concerns this year. The former undrafted free agent had 107 receptions on 127 targets in 2022. Not only were both career highs for Ekeler, but he had the second-most receptions ever by a running back in a season. The Chargers added Quentin Johnston during the NFL Draft. More importantly, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams should be healthier this season. While Ekeler is still a fantasy superstar, I would draft Bijan Robinson (ADP 10.1) and CeeDee Lamb (10.7) ahead of the veteran running back.
Potential League Winners
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN): ADP 132.9 | QB18
The veteran quarterback was awful for fantasy players last year. Wilson was the QB16, averaging 15 fantasy points per game, the worst of his career. Furthermore, the former Seattle Seahawk had only 16 passing touchdowns, a career low. Wilson averaged two passing touchdowns and 20.1 fantasy points per contest over his final four games. Furthermore, he had 505 passing yards and six total touchdowns in the two games without Nathaniel Hackett on the sidelines, averaging 23.4 fantasy points per contest. Reportedly the veteran has looked slimmer and more athletic and should play better with Sean Payton’s coaching. Wilson has too much upside to be the 18th quarterback off the board.
Skyy Moore (WR – KC): ADP 109.2 | WR51
Many were excited about the former Western Michigan star last year. Unfortunately, he struggled as a rookie, finishing fourth among the team’s wide receivers in targets and fifth in routes route. Furthermore, Moore was the WR123, scoring only 32.4 half-point PPR fantasy points last season. Moore has been the talk of the team this offseason. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Andy Reid have said they expect a big year from the young receiver. More importantly, Moore is vastly underrated at his ADP. Kadarius Toney has missed 44.1% of the games in his career. Yet, he is the WR39 in the ADP. I’ll take a shot on Moore having a second-year breakout season.
Zamir White (RB – LV): ADP 210.6 | RB66
When Josh Jacobs played in the Hall of Fame game last year, everyone said the Raiders were going to trade away the veteran and make White the starter. Instead, Jacobs was the RB3, averaging 17.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, White had seven fantasy points for the year. Jacobs reportedly could sit out into the 2023 season. Even if the star running back shows up and starts in Week 1, Las Vegas reportedly wants to lighten his workload this year by giving the second-year back more touches. Fantasy players can get a potential high-end handcuff with a pathway to a significant role with the final pick of their drafts by selecting White.
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC): ADP 79.6 | WR42
Unfortunately, the Chargers always seem to be the most injured team in the NFL every season. Last year, Keenan Allen missed seven games because of a hamstring injury. The veteran recently turned 31, and fantasy players have to wonder if his age could lead to more injury problems. Mike Williams is one of the more injury-prone wide receivers in the NFL. Therefore, it’s no surprise that Los Angeles used their first-round pick in the NFL Draft on Johnston. If the two veterans struggle to stay healthy, the former TCU star could have a massive year as Justin Herbert‘s go-to wide receiver. Remember, Williams and Allen were top-14 wide receivers in 2021.