Everyone loves a pay raise. Therefore, you go the extra mile to impress your boss, hoping to get a bump in pay and a contract extension. However, does that also apply to NFL players? More importantly, is there a correlation between players entering a contract year and an increase in fantasy production?

I have taken three players at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end over the past two years and examined their fantasy points per game in half-point PPR scoring. I looked at their fantasy production in the season before their contract year, their production in the contract year, and their production in the first year of a new contract. Will it show a correlation between a contract year and a career year on the field? Let’s take a look.

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Contract Year Impact on Fantasy Football

2022 Quarterbacks

These quarterbacks signed new contracts in the 2022 offseason. Therefore, the 2020 season was the second to last year of their contract (or a previous contract), the 2021 season was their contract year, and the 2022 season was the first year of their new contract.

Last year Smith took over as the starting quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks following the Russell Wilson trade. However, he did start three games during the 2021 season, which is why his fantasy production took a massive step up from 2020 to 2021. The veteran had signed multiple one-year deals with the Seahawks from 2020-2022, primarily as the backup quarterback. It’s hard to gauge how much those deals impact Smith’s production. The true test will come this season after the veteran signed a three-year contract this offseason.

Similarly, Brissett was a backup with the Indianapolis Colts in 2020, throwing only eight passes that year. He signed a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins in the 2021 offseason to be Tua Tagovailoa‘s backup. Unfortunately, injuries forced Brissett to start five games that season. The veteran quarterback joined the Cleveland Browns last year to backup Deshaun Watson. More importantly, Brissett knew he would start part of the year. The veteran was productive as the starter and signed a one-year deal with the Washington Commanders this offseason. If he becomes the starter, seeing how well Brissett plays for fantasy players will be interesting.

Bridgewater has played for three teams in the past three years. He averaged a career-high 16.1 fantasy points per game in 2020 with the Carolina Panthers. It was his first time changing teams on the open market. However, the Panthers traded him to the Denver Broncos in 2021. Bridgewater saw his fantasy production drop despite an increase in passing touchdowns. Then the veteran signed a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins to replace Jacoby Brissett as Tua Tagovailoa’s backup. Unfortunately, Bridgewater struggled to stay healthy in 2022.

2021 Quarterbacks

These quarterbacks signed new contracts in the 2021 offseason. Therefore, the 2019 season was the second to last year of their contract (or a previous contract), the 2020 season was their contract year, and the 2021 season was the first year of their new contract.

Dalton will play for his fourth team in as many years in 2023. The veteran had his final year with the Cincinnati Bengals in 2019. Then he signed a one-year deal to be Dak Prescott‘s backup with the Dallas Cowboys. Unfortunately, the veteran started nine games for the Cowboys after Prescott suffered a gruesome ankle injury early in 2020.

Dalton then signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Bears in 2021 to serve as the bridge-gap quarterback and mentor to Justin Fields. Ironically, the veteran signed with the New Orleans Saints last year and had 18 passing touchdowns, his highest total since the 2018 season.

Unfortunately, Taylor might be most famous for having his lunge punctured because of a pregame shot in 2020. The veteran began his career as a backup before starting for the Buffalo Bills from 2015-2017. He has since bounced around the NFL, mostly as a career backup. Taylor was with the Los Angeles Chargers for two years, backing up Philip Rivers in 2019. The veteran was the Week 1 starter in 2020 before handing over the starting job to Justin Herbert. Taylor then started six games for the Houston Texans in 2021, splitting the starting role with Davis Mills throughout the year.

Good luck making sense of Winston. The former No. 1 overall pick was the QB5 in 2019 despite throwing 30 interceptions. However, he got replaced by Tom Brady in Tampa Bay and signed with the New Orleans Saints. After learning under Drew Brees for a year, Winston signed a one-year deal in 2021 before signing a two-year contract last offseason. While he had 14 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions in seven games in 2021, Winston couldn’t stay healthy in 2022.

2022 Running Backs

These running backs signed new contracts in the 2022 offseason. Therefore, the 2020 season was the second to last year of their contract (or a previous contract), the 2021 season was their contract year, and the 2022 season was the first year of their new contract.

After getting replaced by James Robinson during the 2020 preseason, Fournette signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, he didn’t have a consistent role during the regular season. The veteran re-signed on a one-year deal in the 2021 offseason. Yet, Fournette had the best year of his career that season since his rookie year. Tampa Bay re-signed the former No. 4 overall pick to a three-year deal but saw his yards per rushing attempt drop by 22.2%. The team released Fournette earlier this offseason at reportedly his request.

Edmonds was never the lead running back for the Arizona Cardinals. However, after averaging 4.5 fantasy points per game over his first two years with the team, the former fourth-round pick averaged 8.8 fantasy points per game in 2020. Then the veteran averaged a career-high 10.2 fantasy points per game in 2021 despite splitting the backfield with James Conner. Unfortunately, Edmonds was a fantasy bust last season. He signed with the Miami Dolphins in the offseason but only played eight games with the team before getting traded to the Denver Broncos.

Unfortunately, injuries limited Conner’s fantasy production in his final few years with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He missed three games with the Steelers in 2020 but still averaged over 11 fantasy points for the third consecutive season. The veteran signed a one-year deal with the Arizona Cardinals in 2021. He was supposed to replace Kenyan Drake as Chase Edmonds’ running mate. However, Conner averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game, his highest average since his first year as the starter in 2018. Despite signing a three-year deal with the team last offseason, the veteran running back remained productive and saw his yards per rushing attempt improve by 14%.

2021 Running Backs

These running backs signed new contracts in the 2021 offseason. Therefore, the 2019 season was the second to last year of their contract (or a previous contract), the 2020 season was their contract year, and the 2021 season was the first year of their new contract.

After starting his career with the Miami Dolphins, the team traded Drake to the Arizona Cardinals during the 2019 season. The veteran averaged a career-high 13 fantasy points per game that season. He saw his fantasy production slightly drop in a contract year. Yet, that didn’t stop the Las Vegas Raiders from signing the veteran to a two-year contract in the 2021 offseason. Unfortunately, Drake was a massive fantasy bust with the Raiders and got cut only one year into his contract. The veteran signed a one-year deal with the Baltimore Ravens last year, having limited fantasy production.

We all saw Williams had a career year last season after he led the NFL in rushing touchdowns. It will be interesting to see how well he plays for fantasy players in 2023. However, the former BYU star split the backfield work with Aaron Jones in 2019 and 2020. While Jones had the larger role, Williams was a solid bench option for fantasy players. Yet, his fantasy production only slightly improved in his first year with the Detroit Lions in 2021. Unfortunately, Williams switched teams but found himself in a similar situation, splitting the backfield work with D’Andre Swift.

Patterson started his NFL career as a wide receiver. He began to earn snaps at running back in 2018 with the New England Patriots. Patterson spent the 2019 and 2020 seasons with the Chicago Bears, mostly playing only special teams. However, the veteran found fantasy success in 2021 with the Atlanta Falcons. While he signed a one-year deal with the team, the full-time change in position led to his fantasy breakout. Patterson averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game last season after signing a two-year contract in the offseason.

2022 Wide Receivers

These wide receivers signed new contracts in the 2022 offseason. Therefore, the 2020 season was the second to last year of their contract (or a previous contract), the 2021 season was their contract year, and the 2022 season was the first year of their new contract.

Kirk spent four years with the Arizona Cardinals, having his best year in 2021. The veteran receiver saw his targets per game jump by only 6.9% from 2020 to 2021. Yet, he had 361 more receiving yards from 2020 to his contract year. More importantly, Kirk averaged a career-high 11.8 fantasy points per game in his first season with the Jacksonville Jaguars. While everyone made fun of the team during the offseason because of the contract, the former Texas A&M star and the Jaguars got the final laugh.

The veteran Robinson has had a rocky past few years. He had a top-12 finish in 2020, the final year of his contract with the Chicago Bears. However, the team placed the franchise tag on Robinson, and he clearly wasn’t happy about it in 2021. Some chalked up his decline in production due to the team’s dysfunctional coaching staff and offense. Unfortunately, Robinson failed to live up to his three-year contract with the Los Angeles Rams last season. While the team’s offense got destroyed by injuries and poor execution, fantasy players have to wonder if Robinson will bounce back this season with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

After spending the first four years of his career with the Atlanta Falcons, Gage signed a three-year deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last offseason. The former LSU receiver didn’t see much change in his fantasy production from 2020 to 2021. However, Gage didn’t miss a game in 2020 but missed three the following year. Yet, the veteran had near identical numbers in only 14 contests instead of 16. More importantly, Gage averaged only 7.5 fantasy points per game in his first year with the Buccaneers but did have a career-high five receiving touchdowns. Injuries played a role in his struggles, as the veteran missed four games, a career-high.

2021 Wide Receivers

These wide receivers signed new contracts in the 2021 offseason. Therefore, the 2019 season was the second to last year of their contract (or a previous contract), the 2020 season was their contract year, and the 2021 season was the first year of their new contract.

You can argue that Golladay should go down as one of the biggest bust signings in free agent history. The veteran receiver had a career year in 2019, totaling 1,190 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Many thought Golladay would have another breakout season in 2020. Instead, he struggled with injuries and only played five games. Yet, he still averaged over 11 fantasy points per game for the third consecutive season. However, Golladay had only 521 receiving yards and zero touchdowns in his first year with the New York Giants. The veteran signed a massive four-year contract during the 2021 offseason. The Giants released Golladay this offseason after two years with the team, totaling only 87.7 total fantasy points.

Samuel averaged nine fantasy points per game during the 2018 and 2019 seasons. He had a career year in 2020, the final year of his rookie contract. The Carolina Panthers gave Samuel 41 rushing attempts for 200 yards and two touchdowns that season, all career highs. While Ron Rivera had big plans for the wide receiver, Samuel played in only five games and had nine targets in 2021. However, the former Ohio State star did bounce back last year, averaging 8.5 fantasy points per game.

Many labeled Agholor a bust after his five years with the Philadelphia Eagles. He averaged more than 8.3 fantasy points per game, only once with the team (2017). More importantly, he had under 365 receiving yards during his contract year. Yet, Agholor signed a one-year deal with the Las Vegas Raiders and had a career year, totaling 896 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in 2020. He managed to get the New England Patriots to sign him to a two-year deal during the 2021 offseason. However, the veteran averaged only 4.7 fantasy points per game in 31 career games with the Patriots.

2022 Tight Ends

These tight ends signed new contracts in the 2022 offseason. Therefore, the 2020 season was the second to last year of their contract (or a previous contract), the 2021 season was their contract year, and the 2022 season was the first year of their new contract.

The former Ole Miss star had an impressive rookie season, totaling six receiving touchdowns. Engram averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game that year and again in 2018 before averaging a career-high 10.9 fantasy points per game in 2019. However, it went downhill from there.

Engram averaged 5.3 fantasy points per game in the final year of his rookie contract. The Jacksonville Jaguars signed the veteran to a one-year deal during the 2022 offseason. Engram had a productive year, totaling 766 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Yet, the team hasn’t signed the tight end to a long-term deal. Instead, they used the franchise tag on the veteran. After drafting Brenton Strange with their second-round pick, Engram likely won’t return to Jacksonville in 2024.

Everett has played for three teams over the past three years. He played for the Los Angeles Rams in 2020, the final year of his rookie contract. However, Everett was splitting the tight-end targets with Tyler Higbee. The veteran signed a one-year deal with the Seattle Seahawks in 2021 and had four receiving touchdowns, a career-high. Last year Everett had a career-high in fantasy points per game and receiving yards (555). He is entering the final year of a two-year contract he signed with the Los Angeles Chargers last offseason.

Many were excited to see what Conklin would do as the starter with the New York Jets last year. The veteran was buried on the depth chart behind Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. with the Minnesota Vikings. However, the former Central Michigan tight end started 15 games in 2021, the final year of his rookie contract. Conklin averaged 6.3 fantasy points per game that season, a career-high. While he split the tight-end work with C.J. Uzomah last year, Conklin still put up similar numbers.

2021 Tight Ends

These tight ends signed new contracts in the 2021 offseason. Therefore, the 2019 season was the second to last year of their contract (or a previous contract), the 2020 season was their contract year, and the 2021 season was the first year of their new contract.

After spending the early years of his career as the No. 2 tight end with the Tennessee Titans, Smith became the full-time starter in 2020. He had a career-high that season, totaling eight receiving touchdowns. However, the production quickly fell apart. The New England Patriots signed the tight end to a massive four-year contract during the 2021 offseason. Unfortunately, Smith had the second-lowest fantasy points per game average of his career. The Patriots traded the veteran to the Atlanta Falcons this offseason for a seventh-round draft pick.

New England also signed Hunter Henry that offseason. The former Arkansas tight end struggled with injuries early in his career but had been a consistent tight end for fantasy players. He averaged 10.2 fantasy points per game in 2019, a career-high. Yet, Henry missed the 2018 season with a torn ACL. While the veteran hasn’t turned into a fantasy star, he averaged at least 7.5 fantasy points per game every year of his career until last season. However, we’re putting the blame for that on Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia, not Henry.

Cook’s last year in the NFL was 2021 with the Los Angeles Chargers. The team lost Hunter Henry in free agency and needed a replacement starter. While his fantasy production slightly dropped from 2020 with the New Orleans Saints, Cook still had over 500 receiving yards for the fifth consecutive season. More importantly, the veteran averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game with the Saints in 2019, the first year of a two-year deal he signed that offseason. Cook had nine receiving touchdowns that season, a career-high.

Conclusion

Is there a correlation between a contract year and a career year in fantasy football? The answer is no. Too many other factors go into play to say players have the best year of their career when they are up for a new contract. Furthermore, NFL contracts are not guaranteed. Players get released all the time despite having multiple years left on their contracts.

However, do players give a little extra when it’s time for a new deal? Of course, they do. Giving an extra 10% is human nature when it’s time for a pay raise. Yet, it’s not something fantasy players should put too much stock into when making draft decisions.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.