San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings
- SF -7, O/U 44
- 49ers vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The 49ers have the third-slowest neutral pace and the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.
- Last week without Justin Jefferson, Minnesota didn’t deviate from the game plan. They still ranked first in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate (61.7%).
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy: Purdy is the QB13 in fantasy with QB1 outings (QB10, QB11, QB7) in 50% of his games this season. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy ranks second in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and eighth in passing touchdowns. Still, he is only 27th in highly accurate throw rate and 21st in adjusted completion rate. Minnesota’s pass defense has been an eye-sore all year, allowing the 13th-highest yards per attempt, third-highest passer rating, and the second-highest adjusted completion rate. Minnesota has allowed the second-highest CPOE on deep throws. The Vikings have been blitz-heavy all season, leading the NFL with a 57.9% blitz rate (15th in pressure rate). Purdy had a disappointing outing last week, but overall, he has been strong against the blitz, ranking third in fantasy points per dropback, ninth in yards per attempt, and fourth in passer rating. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1
Kirk Cousins: Although Cousins’ boxscore last week didn’t show it, he played well in his first game without Justin Jefferson. Cousins ranked fourth in passing grade, 12th in big-time throw rate, and fifth in adjusted completion rate. He is the QB9 in fantasy this season, ranking 12th in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns, and sixth in passer rating. Cousins should prepare himself for a long day against the 49ers this week. San Francisco has held passers to the lowest passer rating, the third-lowest yards per attempt, and the 13th-lowest adjusted completion rate. Minnesota will have to pass the ball, though, if they want to move down the field because the 49ers’ run defense isn’t any easier to deal with. Week 7 Positional Value: Borderline QB1
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey had his MRI yesterday.
We haven’t heard the results yet.
Probably for a reason. I’m planning on being without CMC for the next 2 weeks (3 including Wk9 bye).Hope I’m wrong.
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) October 17, 2023
Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey looks like he’s going to play. It’s simple. If McCaffrey is active, you play him. #Analysis. In Weeks 1-5, he played at least 61% of the snaps weekly, averaging 23.8 touches and 135.6 total yards. Minnesota has surprisingly been a tough matchup for backs, holding them to the second-lowest explosive run rate and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and fantasy points per game. Week 7 Positional Value: RB1
Jordan Mason:Last week, Mason was the primary guy with McCaffrey ailing. He played 15 snaps with nine routes and five carries. I’m projecting McCaffrey to play in Week 7, so Mason should remain on your bench.
Elijah Mitchell:Last week, with McCaffrey banged up, Mitchell played the backup role to Mason with only seven snaps, five routes, and two carries. I’m projecting McCaffrey to play in Week 7, so Mason should remain on your bench.
Alexander Mattison: Mattison is the RB21 in fantasy, ranking tenth in snap share, fifth in opportunity share, and eighth in weighted opportunities. He has averaged 16.7 touches and 70.6 total yards. His snaps dipped to 51% in Week 5, but he rebounded with 79% of the snaps last week. Among 53 qualifying backs, Mattison ranks 38th in explosive run rate and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a 49ers run defense that has declined to the middle of the pack. They continue to stifle big runs with the 11th-lowest explosive run rate allowed, but they are only 17th in yards after contact per attempt and 17th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Mattison 65.9% zone). Week 7 Positional Value: Volume-based RB2/3
Cam Akers: Akers doesn’t look to be taking over this backfield anytime soon. Last week, he played nine snaps with only two touches. Week 7 Positional Value: Droppable / Low-end stash
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR15 in fantasy, currently heading for a monster season as he is on pace for 85 grabs and 1,544 receiving yards. Aiyuk has a 29.1% Target share, a monstrous 52.2% air-yard share, 4.02 YPRR, and a 33.7% first-read share. He ranks 16th in deep targets among wideouts while also seeing four red zone targets. Minnesota relies on zone coverage for 70% of their coverage snaps. Against zone, Aiyuk has a 29.9% Target share, 4.36 YPRR, and his first-read share has bumped to 36.4%. Aiyuk is a monster. He will run about 78% of his routes against Byron Murphy (73% catch rate and 113.3 passer rating) and Akayleb Evans (72% catch rate and 120.6 passer rating). Minnesota has given up the ninth-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers. Week 7 Positional Value: WR1
Deebo Samuel: Samuel has been ruled out (shoulder).
Jordan Addison: Last week without Justin Jefferson, Addison tied for the team lead with a 23.8% first-read share and had a 16.1% Target share. He led the way with a 39.2% air-yard share but sadly only produced 28 receiving yards and 0.97 YPRR. Addison is being asked to step up with the Viking’s alpha out. The rookie needs to answer the call. Addison is the WR36 in fantasy, ranking 24th among wide receivers in red zone targets (six). He faces a tough secondary that has allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Addison will run about 79% of his routes against Deommodore Lenoir (67.4% catch rate and 68.8 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (60% catch rate and 68.4 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR3
K.J. Osborn: Last week, Osborn absorbed a 16.1% Target share (tied for second on the team) with a 22.1% air-yard share. Overall, Osborn has a 12.8% Target share, a 16.1% air-yard share, and only 0.99 YPRR. He is the WR57 in fantasy points per game, with one outing this season where he finished above WR42 in weekly scoring. Sit Osborn against this tough secondary. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit
Tight Ends
George Kittle: Kittle is the TE8 in fantasy with two deep targets and four red zone looks. Among 37 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 14th in Target share (14.6%), tenth in YPRR (1.52), and 16th in first-read share (15.4%). Kittle will have more spike weeks this season, but Week 7 doesn’t look like it will be one of them. Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards and the lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 7 Positional Value: TE1
T.J. Hockenson: Last week without Justin Jefferson, Hockenson took over as the team’s number one pass game option with a 25.8% Target share, a 32.6% air-yard share, and a 23.8% first-read share. Hockenson ranks seventh in deep targets and fifth in red zone targets among tight ends. Among 37 qualifying tight ends, he ranks eighth in YPRR. Hockenson will get fed volume again this week but don’t expect him to be efficient with it. San Francisco has allowed the fourth-lowest receiving yards and yards per reception to tight ends (one touchdown). Week 7 Positional Value: TE1
JAC vs. NO | WAS vs. NYG | ATL vs. TB | DET vs. BAL | BUF vs. NE | CLE vs. IND | LV vs. CHI | ARI vs. SEA | PIT vs. LAR | LAC vs. KC | GB vs. DEN | MIA vs. PHI | SF vs. MIN
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints
- NO -1, O/U 40
- Jaguars vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Jacksonville’s neutral pace (14th) remains decent, but their neutral passing rate has been vaporized. The Jaguars now have the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
- New Orleans continues to astonish as they rank fifth in neutral pace and ninth-best in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence (knee) was able to practice on a limited basis on Tuesday. His status feels like a coin flip this week that could be carried up to game time. Lawrence has played much better this season than his QB18 ranking in fantasy points per game would suggest. He ranks eighth in passing grade and big-time throw rate while also sitting at 12th in adjusted completion rate. Because of quarterback injuries and byes this week, if Lawrence plays, you are likely starting him, but I’m not telling you to feel great about it. New Orleans has held quarterbacks to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game, the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, and the second-lowest passer rating. If C.J. Beathard draws the start, I would not be plugging him into my lineup considering this matchup. Week 7 Positional Value: Borderline QB1
Derek Carr: Carr has been all or nothing this season. Among 32 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks second in deep ball rate, but he is also second in checkdown rate. Insane. Carr ranks 21st in passing grade, 24th in yards per attempt, and 22nd in highly accurate throw rate. The Jaguars utilize zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate (78.2%). Against zone, Carr has the 11th-best passer rating while also ranking 17th in fantasy points per dropback. Carr has QB1 upside this week with a matchup with this Jacksonville pass funnel defense. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Carr will gobble up passing yards with deep shots this week if he can connect. Jacksonville has given up the third-most deep passing yards per game, along with the second-highest deep-adjusted completion rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Week 7 Positional Value: Borderline QB1
Running Backs
Travis Etienne: Etienne has played at least 80% of the snaps in four of his six games played. He has averaged 22.3 touches and 103.9 total yards. Among 52 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 23rd in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Etienne has also seen a bump in pass game usage this season as the team’s workhorse. He is seventh in raw target volume, 14th in Target share, and 11th in YPRR among 47 qualifying backs. New Orleans has fielded an above-average run defense holding backs to the 12th-lowest explosive run rate while also ranking 16th in missed tackles allowed per attempt and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. There’s an avenue for Etienne to smash in this matchup with consideration to the Jaguar’s run game scheme. New Orleans looks strong in most run defense metrics, but they have given up the tenth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Etienne 54% gap). Week 7 Positional Value: RB1
Tank Bigsby: Bigsby has only two games with at least 20% of the snaps played. He is averaging 3.2 touches and 8.2 total yards. Bigsby is a stash only. Week 7 Positional Value: Stash
Alvin Kamara: Kamara has played at least 75% of the snaps in two of his three games played while averaging 25 touches and 95 total yards. Kamara’s role in this offense has been insane. He has played only three games, but he ranks fifth in targets among running backs while also sitting in first in Target share (21.6%). He is 21st among 64 qualifying backs in yards per route run (YPRR). Among 52 qualified backs, Kamara ranks 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 48th in yards after contact per attempt. It’s an understatement to say that his tackle-breaking ability has vanished. His line has done a great job at getting him room to operate, as he is 13th in yards before contact per attempt. Kamara will fight an uphill battle this week against a run defense that has kept backs in check with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-best stuff rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Jacksonville has given up the second-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (2.58). 80.8% of Kamara’s runs have been on zone plays. Week 7 Positional Value: Volume-based RB1
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley: Ridley has a 20.2% Target share, a 36.8% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 25.3% first-read share. Over the last two weeks, his first-read share has been strong (34.9%). Ridley is tied with Zay Jones for the team lead with five end-zone targets. This could be another down week for Ridley, who will run about 86% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (53.6% catch rate and 65.6 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (56.3% catch rate and 62.5 passer rating). The Saints have allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points to perimeter wide receivers. Week 7 Positional Value: WR2/3
Christian Kirk: Kirk leads the team with a 22.1% Target share and 26.0% first-read share. Kirk has churned out 1.91 YPRR with a 26.8% air-yard share. Kirk is a distant third on the team, with only two red-zone targets. Kirk should lead the Jaguars’ passing attack this week with the best corner matchup on the board for Jacksonville. Kirk will run about 72% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (62.7% catch rate and 98.5 passer rating). Taylor has allowed the most receiving touchdowns and tenth-highest yards per snap among 48 qualifying slot corners. New Orleans has given up the 11th-most PPR points to slot receivers. Week 7 Positional Value: WR2
Zay Jones: Jones has been ruled out (knee).
Chris Olave: Olave has a team-leading 24.1% Target share with a 40.8% air-yard share. He has produced 1.92 YPRR with a 31.4% first-read share. Olave ranks second among wide receivers in deep targets and deep air yards. If Carr is looking to wind up deep, Olave and Shaheed will be the focal points. Olave will run about half of his routes against Tre Herdon (80.8% catch rate and 131.6 passer rating). Herndon has allowed the 13th-highest yards per snap and fourth-highest passer rating among 48 qualifying slot corners. Olave has two 100-yard receiving games this season. I expect him to add a third to his 2023 resume this week. Week 7 Positional Value: WR1
Michael Thomas: Thomas has commanded a 20.5% Target share, a 25.2% air-yard share, and a 25.7% first-read share while producing 1.62 YPRR. Thomas could fade into the background this week with how much zone Jacksonville deploys (78.2%). Against zone, Thomas has seen his Target share drop to 15.8% and his first-read share decline to 20% as Rashid Shaheed eats into his volume against zone. Thomas does lead the team with six red zone targets. He’ll need to score this week to save his fantasy day likely. Week 7 Positional Value: WR4
Rashid Shaheed: Love zone coverage? Hate defending the deep ball? If a secondary can answer “Yes” to both of these questions, then we likely see a Shaheed blow-up game. This was the case against Tennessee and Houston, where Shaheed logged at least 85 receiving yards and scored in each game. Against zone, Shaheed has a 12.1% Target share, a 26.0% air-yard share, and 2.21 YPRR. Shaheed ranks seventh in deep targets. Among 108 qualifying receivers, he ranks 30th in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage. Shaheed saw 63% of his routes from the slot last week. Considering the matchup with Tre Herndon (80.8% catch rate and 131.6 passer rating), we could see this happen again in Week 7. Week 7 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2 upside in Week 7
Tight Ends
Evan Engram: Engram is the TE6 in fantasy. Among 36 qualifying tight ends, he ranks fifth in first-read share, seventh in Target share, and tenth in YPRR. Engram’s biggest issues are his low aDOT role (4.0, third-lowest) and his lack of any red zone usage (zero red zone targets). Temper your expectations for Engram this week against a defense that has held tight ends to the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game and third-fewest receiving yards. Week 7 Positional Value: Borderline TE1
Taysom Hill: Hill is coming off a week where he played a season-high 60% of the snaps with a 16% Target share. He finished the game with seven grabs and 49 receiving yards. Hill had 85% of his snaps as an inline tight end or slot/perimeter receiving option. Hill has generated only 0.76 YPRR. Hill has one red zone target and six red zone rushing attempts. This is a favorable matchup for the Saint’s Swiss army knife. Jacksonville has bled out the eighth-highest fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Week 7 Positional Value: Borderline TE1
JAC vs. NO | WAS vs. NYG | ATL vs. TB | DET vs. BAL | BUF vs. NE | CLE vs. IND | LV vs. CHI | ARI vs. SEA | PIT vs. LAR | LAC vs. KC | GB vs. DEN | MIA vs. PHI | SF vs. MIN
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All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.
