The playoff picture is beginning to take form after Thanksgiving weekend in the NFL. Fantasy football leagues are also heating up, with only two weeks separating us from the fantasy football playoffs in Week 15. So much happened across the last few days, so let’s provide a quick recap of some overall narratives and notable wins and losses before analyzing each Stud and Dud performance displayed in Week 12.
Jordan Love (QB – Packers) and the Packers started the chaos on Thursday, going into Detroit on Thanksgiving and winning outright 29-22 behind Love’s 268 passing yards and three touchdowns to an increasingly talented Green Bay wide receiving corps. The next two Thanksgiving game outcomes were a bit more predictable, as Dallas shredded Washington 45-10, sealing the win with DaRon Bland’s (DB – Cowboys) fifth pick-six of the season, setting a league record. Tony Pollard (RB – Cowboys) scored for the second consecutive game too, taking advantage of a favorable matchup. Then, the night cap gave us a dominant outing from Christian McCaffery (RB – 49ers) and the 49ers, as San Francisco’s RB1 accounted for 114 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 31-13 divisional road win over Seattle.
The inaugural Black Friday game was a snooze fest, as Tim Boyle (QB – Jets) and the Jets found new ways to lose in blowout fashion against Miami, 34-13. Raheem Mostert (RB – Dolphins) had two touchdowns, Tyreek Hill (WR – Dolphins) returned to the end zone, and the Dolphins somehow returned a Hail Mary for a pick-six to close the first half. Truly amazing. Sunday’s games had divisional matchups everywhere across the league, while we were treated to an instant classic between Buffalo and Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts (QB – Eagles) and Josh Allen (QB – Bills) combined for four rushing touchdowns and five passing touchdowns, as the Eagles took advantage of the Bills’ late miscues on offense in over time, marching down the field and sealing a 37-34 overtime win in Philadelphia on a designed quarterback draw by Hurts, further cementing his MVP candidacy.
Kenny Pickett (QB – Steelers) and the Steelers accounted for 400 total yards of offense in the first game without former OC Matt Canada, a feat they hadn’t achieved during his entire tenure, beating Cincinnati 16-10 on the road to improve to 7-4. The Falcons’ defense held off the New Orleans Saints in an NFC South tilt, as Bijan Robinson (RB – Falcons) scored twice to get Atlanta off of its three-game losing skid. Derrick Henry (RB – Titans) and Jonathan Taylor (RB – Colts) also scored two touchdowns a piece during their wins, while Tommy DeVito (QB – Giants) ground out an ugly 10-7 win over New England. With the AFC South up for grabs, the Texans’ late 58-yard field goal attempt doinked off of the crossbar, losing 24-21 to the Jaguars at home in a back-and-forth thriller.
Denver recorded its fifth consecutive win over a top-tier Cleveland defense, winning convincingly 29-12 to propel Sean Payton, Russell Wilson (QB – Broncos), and the rest of the Broncos into the AFC playoff picture at 6-5. Kyren Williams’ (RB – Rams) return to the Rams’ lineup proved the key ingredient, as Los Angeles routed Arizona 37-14, which included over 200 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns from their second-year running back. The Chiefs fell into a 14-0 deficit before rallying with a pair of touchdowns from Isiah Pacheco (RB – Chiefs) and two more touchdown passes from Patrick Mahomes (QB – Chiefs), shutting the Raiders out 10-0 in the fourth quarter to win 31-17 and get back into the win column. The multiple touchdown games continued into Sunday Night Football, as rookie wideout Zay Flowers (WR – Ravens) scored the game’s first and last touchdown in a low-scoring, 20-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
NFL fantasy analyst Matt MacKay is here to expand upon his Week 12 studs and duds using half-PPR scoring to project whether these outings will be reliable moving forward or if we saw an outlier performance that could regress in future matchups.
Want to read about only your players? Sync your team (free) to get My Primer 
Studs
Jalen Hurts (QB – Eagles)
The NFL MVP odds leader prior to Sunday’s slate was Jalen Hurts, but a 37-34 comeback win in overtime over the Buffalo Bills will entrench Hurts even further into the lead for MVP. He threw for only 200 yards but found DeVonta Smith (WR – Eagles) and A.J. Brown (WR – Eagles), while carrying 14 times for 65 yards and two touchdowns. Hurts is 12th in deep ball completion percentage (40%), sixth in air yards per game (284.3), and also offers a huge floor due to his unique rushing ability within the Eagles’ offensive scheme. An NFC Championship rematch against San Francisco awaits in Week 13, presenting the worst fantasy quarterback matchup to get this season, but Hurts is a top-two fantasy quarterback who should be locked into all fantasy lineups.
Josh Allen (QB – Bills)
Josh Allen played one of his best games of the season but a missed throw in the end zone during overtime to wideout Gabe Davis (WR – Bills) could’ve sealed the win for Buffalo. Instead, Allen’s four total touchdowns will be forgotten due to the loss, which makes Buffalo 6-6. Allen’s willingness to be a ball carrier, recording 9-81-2 on the ground in Week 12, shows why he’s the overall QB1 in fantasy football, paired with his powerful arm, which recorded 339 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles. Next up is the Bye in Week 13, with a road trip to Kansas City awaiting in Week 14.
Kyren Williams (RB – Rams)
In his first game back off of IR, Kyren Williams exploded with 16 carries for 143 yards, while scoring both touchdowns as a receiver, finishing with six receptions for 61 yards and two touchdowns on six targets. Williams’ usage is elite and the Rams’ run-centric offense takes pressure off of veteran Matthew Stafford (QB – Rams), as Puka Nacua (WR – Rams) and Cooper Kupp (WR – Rams) were relegated to smaller roles during a dominant 37-14 NFC West win on the road over Arizona. Williams finished overall RB1 yet again and is a bonafide RB1 rest of season, despite drawing the 13th-toughest running back matchup at home against Cleveland’s defense in Week 13.
Bijan Robinson (RB – Falcons)
Bijan Robinson was another fantasy running back who logged two total touchdowns in Week 12, as head coach Arthur Smith funneled 19 touches to his rookie top-five draft pick. As long as Atlanta is winning games, this will likely be the formula, which Smith previously refused to rely on. Robinson’s Week 13 matchup on the road against a Jets run defense ranked as a top-five fantasy matchup leaves him in RB1 territory. Keep Robinson locked into all fantasy lineups with another top-three finish likely in Week 13.
Mike Evans (WR – Buccaneers)
Baker Mayfield (QB – Buccaneers) and Mike Evans have developed a strong rapport this season, as the big-bodied wideout already has 54 receptions for 850 yards and nine touchdowns through 11 games played. Evans scored twice against the Colts in Week 12 and he’s now WR8 in fantasy points per game (15.1), higher than Brandon Aiyuk (WR – 49ers) (WR11/14.1) and D.J. Moore (WR – Bears) (WR12/13.9) entering Week 13. Evans gets a surprisingly difficult bottom-five matchup against Carolina in Week 13, but he’s still a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside who needs to be in the majority of fantasy lineups.
Zay Flowers (WR – Ravens)
Rookie wideout Zay Flowers finally was force-fed the football in Week 12 against the Chargers, converting just six touches into 62 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Flowers’ second touchdown came on a designed motion hand-off, allowing the speedster to find the lane up the middle for a 37-yard touchdown carry. He also hauled in a one-yard touchdown early in the contest, finishing with 5-25-1 on eight targets. Without Mark Andrews (TE – Ravens) on the field, Flowers should get boosted into high-end WR2 value moving forward, however, fantasy managers will need to wait for his return out of the Week 13 Bye.
Pat Freiermuth (TE – Steelers)
During his second game in Pittsburgh’s lineup following a multi-week absence due to injury, Pat Freiermuth went off, hauling in nine of 11 targets for 120 receiving yards to finish as the overall TE2 in Week 12. Freiermuth looked ridiculously efficient and reliable unleashed from former OC Matt Canada’s anemic play calling. Freiermuth is an intriguing prospect moving into a bottom-ten fantasy tight end matchup against Arizona in Week 13. Due to the scarcity and volatility at the position, Freiermuth is best kept in fantasy lineups across most leagues.
Duds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Dolphins)
Despite coming away with a decisive 21-point win over the Jets, Tua Tagovailoa’s performance was forgettable. Miami’s QB1 recorded a 70 percent completion rate, finishing with 243 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Tagovailoa’s lack of rushing upside within Mike McDaniel’s West Coast offense caps his ceiling, while he delivered a floor outing with only 7.8 fantasy points due to turnovers and only one passing touchdown. Tagovailoa remains on the road against Washington’s porous pass defense in Week 13, giving him a bigger floor and high-end QB2 value entering a much more favorable matchup. We haven’t seen a 20-point outing in fantasy from Tagovailoa since Week 8, so he’s due to pop in a plus-matchup in Week 13.
Gus Edwards (RB – Ravens)
Gus Edwards dominant touchdown streak came to an end in Week 12. The Ravens’ physical goal-line running back failed to score a touchdown for the first time in five games, accounting for nine of the ten touchdowns he’s scored for Baltimore this season. If Edwards isn’t getting used in the passing attack, which he’s not, drawing only four combined targets in the past three games, plus he’s getting phased out in-between the 20s and ceding touches to other Baltimore skilled players in the red zone, he becomes a touchdown reliant RB3. Edwards is off in Week 13 and gets a bottom-eight matchup against the Rams in Week 14, making him an RB3 with mid-range RB2 upside.
Diontae Johnson (WR – Steelers)
The Steelers’ wideouts weren’t asked to do much during their 16-10 road win over Cincinnati, which is why Diontae Johnson logged 4-50 on eight targets. Johnson led the team in targets outside of Freiermuth, but now, he’s gone under seven total fantasy points in three consecutive games. Fantasy managers are hoping for that two-week stretch against Jacksonville and Tennessee, where Johnson drew 23 targets and caught at least seven receptions for 85 yards. However, the new-look offense, combined with Freiermuth’s dominance, could keep Johnson in low-end WR2 territory despite competing in a top-14 fantasy wide receiver matchup against Arizona in Week 13.
George Kittle (TE – 49ers)
San Francisco’s game plan was centered around Christian McCaffery and the rushing attack against Seattle’s porous run defense in Week 12. This left minimal targets for the rest of the 49ers’ skilled players, as Deebo Samuel (WR – 49ers) converted a goal-line carry for a touchdown, while finishing with a team-high nine targets. Kittle earned five targets but only finished with three receptions for 19 yards. Expect a big bounce back against Philadelphia in Week 13, as the Eagles are a top-eight fantasy tight end matchup, while the 49ers will be motivated to avenge their NFC Championship loss from last season. Kittle is a TE1 on the road against Philadelphia in Week 13.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.
